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I duck in dummy, and unless the K or Q shows up, I duck in hand too.

 

I'm going to win the A on the second diamond trick (assuming they continue, but the spots matter too in this decision--I'm assuming the leader has 5 diamonds if I don't see the 2).

 

I'll immediately take the heart finesse.

 

After this, it gets hard to say, and I may play differently depending on what happens until this point.

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As Bunny, but I play a small from dummy toward the Q, preserving the option to finesse the 10 if necessary. The tenuous stopper means I can't play s as this requires giving up control twice.
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Bunny:

K wins, 4 return, LHO playing T under the ace. N wins the K and continues to the Q. Then to the AK and fourth . Two down. 4.55%. I ducked twice, same result

 

 

If the K shows up the first trick, I take it, and play on hearts then. This gives me a good chance of 2 diamond tricks.

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Ah, you're right. Thanks. I missed that at the table, as usual preoccupied with my planned line rather than reconsidering :)

 

Where is the 9? Did South lead the 3 from QT93 or did North played the K from K92? Seems like the defense messed up. 3nt cannot win.

 

Steven

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S had QT3.

 

So North had K942 and made the mistake of not playing the 9 to the first trick... The lead of the Q (or the T) would have been easier for North.

I cannot see a winning line in 3nt without a defensive mistake. Though you can keep it to one down by playing on spades instead of hearts.

 

Steven

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