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Guessing trumps


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I admit I'd hook like 100% of the time against a non-expert.

 

Against an expert:

If he plays the Q 100% of the time from Q10, then you should play for the drop. If he plays it 0% of the time, you should hook. Of course, the expert knows that, and can adjust so that he plays the Q the right percentage of the time so that it's a guess.

 

So your best guess could be based on what level you think the expert is on (or what he thinks you're on, etc.). My gut says that an average expert would play the Q too much of the time, so you should try to drop the 10. Basically, he'd have to believe that you'd believe that partner led the J from QJx to ever make the 10 right, so I think he'd compensate and play the Q way more than he should, which gives you no info, and you should just do the normal thing and play for 2-2.

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I admit I'd hook like 100% of the time against a non-expert.

 

Against an expert:

If he plays the Q 100% of the time from Q10, then you should play for the drop. If he plays it 0% of the time, you should hook. Of course, the expert knows that, and can adjust so that he plays the Q the right percentage of the time so that it's a guess.

 

So your best guess could be based on what level you think the expert is on (or what he thinks you're on, etc.). My gut says that an average expert would play the Q too much of the time, so you should try to drop the 10. Basically, he'd have to believe that you'd believe that partner led the J from QJx to ever make the 10 right, so I think he'd compensate and play the Q way more than he should, which gives you no info, and you should just do the normal thing and play for 2-2.

 

Is playing the T from QT ever correct?

 

It's late here, but it seems to me that it is protecting the parlay of partner having made a deceptive lead, and you exposing it for unlikely gain.

 

When you see the J led, don't you want to play the "known" card. Isn't playing the T a huge position to take?

 

I must be missing something obvious.

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it makes zero sense to lead J from JTx and give declarer a chance to pick up a trump suit

that has a sure loser (or 2) if P has a stiff K or Q. Play for the drop period no matter who

you are playing against (though a beginner might make such a mistake)

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