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Am I too aggressive?


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IMO Double is a standout. We have 6 trumps (partner's 4 my 2), 22+HCP, and the probable fit we can use to shorten declarer. East has 6 or 7 cards so dummy will have 1 at most. No ruffs in the short hand here. Yes partner's s are in the slot, but delarer cannot take advantage.
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I would double, but I think it is close. We have around 23 HCPS, but they rate to have 5+ diamond tricks and still some outside stuff, so 2 can sometimes be made. OTOH, it is MPs and I have more then minimum.
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X= do something intelligent partner... I have extras, but no clear strain, no 5/4 in the majors, enough defence to sit if you think it is right...
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X. If this makes, you are screwed anyway unless NT was going down 2, as I'm sure most of the field won't be in 2. Now you have to decide what's best to protect equity for all the rest of the contracts. 50 isn't enough against 90 for NT making, and 100 isn't enough if the field is getting 120. And X might jostle partner into action with really bad diamonds, which might get us to 3 if that's right.
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I think it's very close at matchpoints. Yes, it's penalties, but how rich are we getting from defending 2D undoubled when we have over half the deck?

At imps pass is clear.

 

There are some reasons not to double even at matchpoints: (i) it is love all, and converting 50 to 100 may not make any difference if we were making 1NT; (ii) if LHO has good diamonds, perhaps we weren't making 1NT (but then -90 or -110 may still be worse than -50 or -100 and we might be stuffed anyway); (iii) if partner has, say, KQx Kxx xxxx Axx he'll bid 2S if we pass but not if we double.

 

If they are vulnerable it becomes much more tempting to double.

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I think it's very close at matchpoints. Yes, it's penalties, but how rich are we getting from defending 2D undoubled when we have over half the deck?

At imps pass is clear.

 

Aren't they about the same? The downside of -180 at imps is lose 3 or whatever, but at MP it is a zero, that is a much harsher downside. The upside of down 1 at imps is win 2, and it is unlikely to be a top at MP. Down 2 will be a top, but you also gain 5 imps.

 

It is hard to analyze because it's hard to know what the exact upside of down 1 is at imps. Some people might think it's better to double 2D vul at MP but not at imps. I think this is wrong, lets say down 200 is a top and +180 is a zero. At imps it's lose 3 or win 3. However if you beat them 2, you probably gain little from the double at MP but gain 7 imps at imps. Of course, them making 380 would be quite bad at imps, but generally doubling 2m aggressively at imps is good if you think down multiple will be more likely than making overtricks, and that down 1 or making are pretty likely. It also has the effect that if you beat them 2 doubled on a random partscore hand you might tilt them for the rest of the set, whereas they will not be feeling great about +180.

 

So personally I am much more inclined to double them when theyre already in game, or when I'm not doubling them into game, at imps rather than MP, since doubling them in a making contract at MP always has huge downside, and white down 1 has not as much upside.

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