mgoetze Posted June 5, 2012 Report Share Posted June 5, 2012 Only in the sense that the former is perhaps simpler than the latter .. so that it would more likely be added first. Might just be my perception though.Just because an agreement is simple doesn't mean you should add it. For example, the agreement that any 3NT overcall shows 10-12 HCP balanced is very simple, yet noone seems to have added that one. I know one pair who would play support double in this situation but they're not very good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted June 5, 2012 Report Share Posted June 5, 2012 Apart from the 6=4=2=1 case mentioned by kayin801, 7♣ will come down to knowing the diamond distribution and then playing with the odds. At the critical moment, if we know the spade distribution we will also know the diamond distribution. Given that, we will make 7♣ against half of the 3-3 breaks, 2/3 of the 4-2 breaks, and 5/6 of the 5-1 breaks. If diamonds are 6=0 I assume that we're going to suffer a first-round ruff. Using Pavlicek's calculator to obtain the suit-break probabilities given spades 3=6, we get:3-3: 33.94%4-2: 48.36%5-1: 15.95% So the chance of making is33.94 / 2 + 48.36 * 2/3 + 15.95 * 5/6 = 62%minus a bit for the 6=4=2=1 case, plus a bit for a 2=7 spade break (which increases the chances of the uneven distributions and therefore improves our odds). Thus the probability of making is above the theoretical 56% threshold. However, the opponents may miss slam, or play in the wrong small slam, so in practice the odds aren't good enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vampyr Posted June 5, 2012 Report Share Posted June 5, 2012 Only in the sense that the former is perhaps simpler than the latter .. so that it would more likely be added first. Might just be my perception though. Just because an agreement is simple doesn't mean you should add it. For example, the agreement that any 3NT overcall shows 10-12 HCP balanced is very simple, yet noone seems to have added that one. Also, not everyone constructs their bidding system by tacking on conventions willy-nilly in some sort of order of perceived complexity, though something like this happens with, say, once-a-month partnerships that do not get together for system discussions -- every time they play they will adopt a favourite treatment of one of the partners! The order will not be about complexity, though -- it will have more to do with the degree that the favourite treatments are liked. About support doubles in particular -- are they really so popular in Strong-NT-Land? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgoetze Posted June 5, 2012 Report Share Posted June 5, 2012 About support doubles in particular -- are they really so popular in Strong-NT-Land?Support doubles up to 2 of our major are very popular. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vampyr Posted June 5, 2012 Report Share Posted June 5, 2012 Support doubles up to 2 of our major are very popular. What about in the OP auction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgoetze Posted June 5, 2012 Report Share Posted June 5, 2012 What about in the OP auction? I know one pair who would play support double in this situation but they're not very good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted June 7, 2012 Report Share Posted June 7, 2012 So I guess it is just my perception :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisV Posted June 10, 2012 Report Share Posted June 10, 2012 Call me nuts but if I want to show that I have clubs as well as diamonds here, I just bid clubs. There's no advantage to bidding 2NT instead, it will just confuse partner. If 2NT is bid, the other hand has to make the only unambiguously forcing bid available, which is 3S. When you have a strong hand it's often better to ask rather than describe. Being in possession of more information about that partnership's assets, you are better placed to choose the contract. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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