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Your turn (bidding)


MrAce

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3. I'm an underbidder. Like to maximize my chances of a plus score. If double guaranteed 5-5 in the majors, 4 would be clear. Don't think the Q or J is worth much for offense.
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I'd pass, even without the UI from Phil's comments.

 

I think it's normal to play that 3 shows 5-5 and double covers the less extreme shapes. If he has something like AKJxx AKxx xx xx, we can't make 4, but 3 will usually go one down on a trump lead. Move one of partner's aces to a minor, and we'll take a comfortable penalty against 3, with 4 in difficulties.

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I'd pass, even without the UI from Phil's comments.

 

I think it's normal to play that 3 shows 5-5 and double covers the less extreme shapes. If he has something like AKJxx AKxx xx xx, we can't make 4, but 3 will usually go one down on a trump lead. Move one of partner's aces to a minor, and we'll take a comfortable penalty against 3, with 4 in difficulties.

Interesting scenario. Partner can not have AKxx when we do. However, if your assumption is correct, that partner can not have 5-5 in the majors, then partner will almost always hold only 4 hearts (where are all the spades?) and likewise will have more than one club, because you know where already 10 diamonds are, though I doubt that your chances are better in 4 if partner is short in clubs.

 

I tried to simulate this scenario.

My assumptions were:

 

East at least 5-5 in the minors 5-10 HCP

West clubs at least as long as diamonds

North 4 hearts, 5 spades at least 12 HCP.

 

Result with 100 deals (It took DMPRO a long time even to create 100 deals)

 

4 made on 65 deals , average number of tricks was 9.2 tricks.

3 made on just 2 deals, average number of tricks West made was 6.5 tricks.

 

For me pass is right on the money

 

Rainer Herrmann

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I tried to simulate this scenario.

My assumptions were:

 

East at least 5-5 in the minors 5-10 HCP

West clubs at least as long as diamonds

North 4 hearts, 5 spades at least 12 HCP.

Thanks for posting your exact simulation criteria.

 

If these are East's criteria for opening 2NT, then I agree with pass. Hoaever, I think most would require some constraints on suit quality before opening 2NT.

 

Also, I don't think you should build into the simulation that partner has 5=spades and 4=hearts. If you require 4-4 or 5-4 in the majors, this simulation will notice by itself that 5=4 is more likely than 4=5.

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I'd pass, even without the UI from Phil's comments.

 

I think it's normal to play that 3 shows 5-5 and double covers the less extreme shapes. If he has something like AKJxx AKxx xx xx, we can't make 4, but 3 will usually go one down on a trump lead. Move one of partner's aces to a minor, and we'll take a comfortable penalty against 3, with 4 in difficulties.

 

Timo's style is AI to everyone on the forums :P

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I was the doubler and was 4-4-3-2. Building a simulation where partner is at least 5-4 in the majors is unnecessary. The fact that you are 1-4 in the majors and opener is (somewhat) short in both automatically makes it more likely that partner has 5 spades.
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I think trivial . Whole deal maybe is :

.................AJxxx

.................Qxx

.................Axx

KQxxx.....A10....xx

J10xxx.................x

..-.........................KJxxx

xxx.........x.........KQxxx

.................AKxx

.................Q10xxx

.................Jxx

What you want to play? I think 3DBL...! BUT...

I will say 3 - natural and forsing ofcourse,

with implied meaning 3NT...

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AT MP if we are in slam territory I can see passing the x because setting 3c 3 tricks

becomes much more likely and could be a huge MP score (in what is probably an

very unusal auction).

 

 

AT IMPS it seems like way too much risk of missing a game for a more likely down 1

or down 2 if p is close to the min for their x. Our hand would like to ruff spades and

pull trumps but we will have to settle for leading trumps. There is no reason to

assume p is near minimum for their x. We could be selling out for 500 when we

are due 980 this may be acceptable risk at MP where just getting 500 might be great

but at imps it starts to become a large loss when slam is available.

 

bid 4h at IMPS Who knows how high p can go??????

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I was the doubler and was 4-4-3-2. Building a simulation where partner is at least 5-4 in the majors is unnecessary. The fact that you are 1-4 in the majors and opener is (somewhat) short in both automatically makes it more likely that partner has 5 spades.

 

This thread was started by MrAce. Were you his partner?

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[hv=pc=n&s=s8hak43dqt654cj32&w=saj952hj7652dcq84&n=skqt6hqt98dk83ca6&e=s743hdaj972ckt975&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=2np3cdppp]399|300[/hv]

 

Here is the full deal. I passed as Phil predicted. It turned out to be not a bad decision.

 

If you bid 4 you will end up either -100 or -300 depends on if W will double or not and/or the lead. Passing 3 +300 is available.

 

Interesting, if you put a heart To Han's hand from West, and give a diamond to West, we still can not make 4 i suppose. We probably can make 3 NT from my side, but i dont think we can bid it.

 

Not the same auction but we got another 3 minor doubled hand today. We collected +1400 this time but we had vulnerable game. Not a similar auction but basically another pass without trump stack but defensive values. This time i held Kxx of their suit (in front of overcaller)

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Not the same auction but we got another 3 minor doubled hand today. We collected +1400 this time but we had vulnerable game. Not a similar auction but basically another pass without trump stack but defensive values. This time i held Kxx of their suit (in front of overcaller)

But your opponents were weak at that time.

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