evaluation on a 11-12 context

[Fluffy]

♠AJ4

♥Q753

♦963

♣A93

 

1♦-1♥

2♥!-4♣ (splinter)

 

2♥ on our precision context shows exactly 4♥ + 3-4♦ and balanced 11-12 HCP. If this is too complicated think of a 1♥-3♥-4♣ natural bidding where 4♣ must be short suit slam try.

[Phil]

Maybe not the perfect 11 count, but its pretty nice isn't it?

 

I'll cue 4♠ expecting partner to take over, where I can show two keys and the trump Q.

[Codo]

I do not like my points at all. Yes the ace of clubs is better then small honours, but "a nice 11 count" has not just two points in our promised suits in a 3433. Make it xx,Axxx,QJxx,Axx and I may cooperate, but not with this hand.

I could hold Ax,Axxx,Kxxx,xxx - this would be a nice 11 count, my hand is worth much less.

[ahydra]

I could hold Ax,Axxx,Kxxx,xxx - this would be a nice 11 count, my hand is worth much less.

 

KNR agrees, valuing this one as 11.60 as opposed to the OP's 10.00.

 

And I think I agree also. The lack of intermediates, trick sources and ruffing values point to treating this as a minimum.

 

ahydra

[Phil]

OK. I was having a great morning until I read ahydra's comment about KnR evaluation for this hand.

 

That is about as relevant here as the color of the deck.

[mikeh]

Do I have 4♦ as last train here?

 

I like my clubs, and my spade A, but I hate, truly hate xxx in diamonds and my shape.

 

If I could, I'd like to make a last train call and then pass 4♥ if that is partner's choice.

 

if last train is unavailable, I think I have to cue spades....I can't imagine laying down this dummy in 4♥, if I signed off, and having partner see Axx opposite his splinter and I never made a try.

[gnasher]

I'd sign off, or bid Last Train if that's available. Axx isn't a particularly good holding opposote a splinter, it's somewhere in the middle: better than KJx but worse than xxx.

[JLOGIC]

4D seems auto, our hand is obv not worth a drive past game but we do not have the worst ever since we could have much more wasted in clubs, and we do have 2 keycards with the trump queen.

[MrAce]

Do I have 4♦ as last train here?

 

This !

 

EDIT: If last train is not available i am cueing 4♠. When i already said i have 11-12 balanced hand and pd still invites me, i can not possibly deny it with 2 Aces + trump Q as Justin said.

[nigel_k]

Since our maximum is a balanced 12, I have no problem cue bidding 4♠ with this hand.

[Fluffy]

We hadn't discussed last train on this sequence really, only over a denied cuebid.

 

Latelly I am thinking this problems in frequency numbers, like you rate your hand in your context, for example I'd say this hand is around 65% (meaning it is better than 65% of the possible hands, worse than 35%). And then think how much you need. To cue below 4♥ (or last train) I think you need something above average, around 55%. But for going over 4♥ something of 75% (top quarter)

[JLOGIC]

Bidding 4S is just too much. We have no doubleton spade which is obviously bad, we have minimum high cards which is obviously bad, and we have the club ace which while better than wastage is still vastly inferior to having an ace somewhere else since the CA will not help us build tricks. It is easy to fall in love with a hand like this but consider that our hand could be Ax AJTx Kxxx xxx or so, our hand is much worse than that. Partner is allowed to try for slam comfortable that we will only drive past game with a very good hand for our auction when we have a bid in between to show an average + type hand (aka 4D in this auction).

[cherdano]

Bidding 4S is just too much. We have no doubleton spade which is obviously bad, we have minimum high cards which is obviously bad, and we have the club ace which while better than wastage is still vastly inferior to having an ace somewhere else since the CA will not help us build tricks.

I am impressed how many flaws you were able to mention without talking about our horrible trump holding... Bidding 4♠ is really way too much.

[Phil]

On a scale from 1 to 10, and given Fluffy's constraints and bidding so far, how would the other posters rate this hand?

[mikeh]

I am impressed how many flaws you were able to mention without talking about our horrible trump holding... Bidding 4♠ is really way too much.

I think it is universally agreed that we would bid last train if we had it: the question is whether we should sign off if we don't have the bid available.

 

While it is only an 11 count and has all the flaws mentioned, it is still significantly better than many 11 counts or even 12 counts we might hold: we do have 2 Aces, which is more than our expectancy for an 11 count. And we have very little wastage in clubs.

 

I think it comes down to what does responder need to make his try. Who is going to be the aggressor in a possible slam auction?

 

Think about the hands which he needs to go slamming opposite a hand limited to 11-12 balanced, and this hand of ours isn't as horrible as it may have seemed...tho the diamonds worry me.

 

IOW, does 4♣ ask us to move towards slam with more than an average hand, or only with a very good hand in context?

 

If the former, then we have to cooperate, in my view. If the latter, then no, we shouldn't.

 

Of course, this very problem is why Last Train was developed. It allows responder to do both....he can invite and opener can then announce 'horrible', or 'good but not great', or 'very good', driving beyond game only with the latter, when it will be safe to do so.

 

As for Phil's question, I see this as maybe a 5.5 to 5.8 hand.

[MrAce]

On a scale from 1 to 10, and given Fluffy's constraints and bidding so far, how would the other posters rate this hand?

 

 

You mean after we already told him that we have 11-12 and balanced hand ? After he splintered and we have no wasted hcps in ♣ suit ? With 2 aces and Qxxx trump ?

 

I would not rate this hand 10 or 9 for the reasons Justin said. Probably 8 but i would not rate it anything less than 7. Put some spots and i would think it worths at least 8.

[gnasher]

IOW, does 4♣ ask us to move towards slam with more than an average hand, or only with a very good hand in context?

It asks us to cooperate below game with a reasonable hand, and to go past game with a good hand. We don't want to keep getting to the five level with an average hand opposite a pushy splinter.

 

On Fluffy's scale I rate this about a 4, btw. The misplaced ace, bad shape and bad spots are all fairly unappealing.

 

Not playing Last Train, if you can't bear to sign off in 4♥, maybe you should bid 4♦ anyway? That shows as much interest as the hand is worth, and it's no more misdescriptive than 4♠ - it's just a different misdescription, in that it lies about the high-card location rather than the overall suitability.

[Phil]

Here's 20 random 11-12 point balanced hands that a generator produced.

 

How many are worse and how many are better? How many are similar?

 

1. Qx KQTx A8xx Jx

2. A8x Q9xx xx AJ9x

3. Ax Q8xx KTx Qxxx

4. AJx AT9x Tx QTxx

5. QJx T7xx Ax Axxx

6. AKQ T7xx Ax Axxx

7. JT8 Q9xx AKxx Jx

8. T7xx AQxx Axx Qx

9. A9 Qxxx AJxxx Qx

10. A9x J9xx JTx KQx

11. Xx KJxx KQxx QJx

12. A9xx AJ9x xx QTx

13. Xxx AJxx Txx AKx

14. T9x AQxx QJx QTx

15. Q8xx AJxx Ax Txx

16. QJx KJxx xxx Axx

17. 9xx KQxx Jx AJxx

18. Jxxx 8xxx Ax AQx

19. Jxx AKJx 8xxx Qx

20. Xxx QJxx Kxx KQx

[JLOGIC]

 

Not playing Last Train, if you can't bear to sign off in 4♥, maybe you should bid 4♦ anyway?

 

I didn't even know last train was something that people agreed to play or not play, and this is why. I assumed last train was invented because it is so logical that people bid this way before it was even a "convention." There are many spots, especially in splinter auctions, where you don't have room and you just "fake" a cuebid to indicate interest below game. Partner will generally evaluate correctly because having specific controls is not important in an auction like this, it is more about overall amount of values and how well they fit and if partner moves beyond game over 4D having already made a slam try it's probably right.

[MrAce]

Here's 20 random 11-12 point balanced hands that a generator produced.

 

How many are worse and how many are better? How many are similar?

 

1. Qx KQTx A8xx Jx

2. A8x Q9xx xx AJ9x

3. Ax Q8xx KTx Qxxx

4. AJx AT9x Tx QTxx

5. QJx T7xx Ax Axxx

6. AKQ T7xx Ax Axxx

7. JT8 Q9xx AKxx Jx

8. T7xx AQxx Axx Qx

9. A9 Qxxx AJxxx Qx

10. A9x J9xx JTx KQx

11. Xx KJxx KQxx QJx

12. A9xx AJ9x xx QTx

13. Xxx AJxx Txx AKx

14. T9x AQxx QJx QTx

15. Q8xx AJxx Ax Txx

16. QJx KJxx xxx Axx

17. 9xx KQxx Jx AJxx

18. Jxxx 8xxx Ax AQx

19. Jxx AKJx 8xxx Qx

20. Xxx QJxx Kxx KQx

 

To me there are 12 worse hands, 4 better hands and 4 similar hands.

[gszes]

p knowing you have 11-12 hcp must have a hand

with enough power to play at least 6 if you have

a good hand for them. A good hand would be

say 10-12 hcp (not counting jacks) outside clubs.

This means with 12 hcp you can leap to 5n with 11

you can bid 6 and with 10 you can bid 5h.

 

these quantitative bids leave cue bids for hands

containing the ace in the splintered suit and

little else wasted. I dislike last train bids

in a splinter sequence since they waste space

if p is looking for a grand. If p uses the

splinter properly having the A and little else

wasted should make playing at the 5 level safe.

 

My suggestion is to cue bid 4s which should show

the club A a spade cue and 6-8 hcp outside clubs.

It should also deny a dia cue. That alone might

be sufficient to stop a search for a grand.

[nige1]

♠ AJ4 ♥ Q753 ♦ 963 ♣ A93

1♦-1♥

2♥!-4♣ (splinter)

2♥ on our precision context shows exactly 4♥ + 3-4♦ and balanced 11-12 HCP. If this is too complicated think of a 1♥-3♥-4♣ natural bidding where 4♣ must be short suit slam try.

IMO 4♦ (last train) = 10, 4♠ = 9 (or 10 if train cancelled), 4[HE} = 7. There are worse 11-12 HCP hands. 4♣ splinter has improved your hand. Agree with MrAce... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO4wcNVbYOQ

[SteveMoe]

Ranking based on LTC, ♣ wastage and In and Out Valuation principles brings me to this view (best to worst): 2 disqualifies (DQ), 9 better 9 worse. 11/12 ratio was 15/3 suggesting another sample...

Hand...................HCP.....CNTLs...LTC..NW♣HCP....Net WP

6. AKQ T7xx Ax Axxx.....17......7.......6.......DQ......NA - out of range

9. A9 Qxxx AJxxx Qx.....13......4.......7.......DQ......NA - out of range

1. Qx KQTx A8xx Jx......11......3.......7.......1.......10

11. Xx KJxx KQxx QJx....12......2.......7.......3.......9

15. Q8xx AJxx Ax Txx....11......4.......8.......0.......11

2. A8x Q9xx xx AJ9x.....11......4.......8.......1.......10

5. QJx T7xx Ax Axxx.....11......4.......8.......0.......11

8. T7xx AQxx Axx Qx.....12......4.......8.......2.......10

3. Ax Q8xx KTx Qxxx.....11......3.......8.......2.......9

7. JT8 Q9xx AKxx Jx.....11......3.......8.......1.......10

17. 9xx KQxx Jx AJxx....11......3.......8.......1.......10

Ref:AJx Qxxx xxx Axx.11......4.......9.......0.......11

4. AJx AT9x Tx QTxx.....11......4.......9.......2.......9

12. A9xx AJ9x xx QTx....11......4.......9.......2.......9

18. Jxxx 8xxx Ax AQx....11......4.......8.5.....2.......9

13. Xxx AJxx Txx AKx....12......5.......9.......0.......12

16. QJx KJxx xxx Axx....11......3.......9.......0.......11

10. A9x J9xx JTx KQx....11......3.......9.......3.......8

19. Jxx AKJx 8xxx Qx....11......3.......9.......2.......9

14. T9x AQxx QJx QTx....11......2.......9.......2.......9

20. Xxx QJxx Kxx KQx....11......2.......8.......3.......8

 

More importantly, partner should expect 8 losers from my hand. I have 9. I will bid 4♥ and hope partner continues if s/he can handle 9 losers opposite. Note that ♠AJx ♥Qxxx ♦Axx ♣xxx is good enough for me to bid 4♠, but barely. At least all my assets are working completely....

[Phil]

Thanks Steve Moe. I must have copied a few of the samples incorrectly.

[gnasher]

The hands with only two diamonds should be excluded, as we promised 3-4 of them.

 

Ref:AJx Qxxx xxx Axx.11......4.......9.......0.......11

 

By treating ♣Axx as zero non-working points, you're treating all aces as equivalent, which is obviously wrong - as you mention in your final paragraph, the ace is worth more in diamonds than in clubs. I would count ♣A as about 1.5 non-working points.