What do you open?

[nigel_k]

I would open 1♣ at pairs in a weak field only and 1NT any other time.

 

In my view, '15-17' includes any hand that is closer in playing strength to an average 15 than an average 14. So this hand qualifies. There is no requirement to disclose that you may upgrade or downgrade though I usually put on the CC 'HCP are a guide only' or words to that effect.

[rhm]

 

In my view, '15-17' includes any hand that is closer in playing strength to an average 15 than an average 14. So this hand qualifies. There is no requirement to disclose that you may upgrade or downgrade though I usually put on the CC 'HCP are a guide only' or words to that effect.

Maybe this is all about hand evaluation

 

A couple of years ago we had a thread http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/topic/25859-how-low-do-you-go/page__hl__%2Bupgrade+%2Bnotrump

 

the hand in question was

 

♠AJ2 ♥T94 ♦AT97 ♣AJ6

and the general mood was not to upgrade. Now we have

 

♠96 ♥985 ♦KJ7 ♣AKQJ2

and here a lot of people think upgrading is automatic.

 

To me it looks the other way round and I do not consider it close.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[y66]

Being in agreement only with NickRW and me is, I suppose, much the same as being alone.

 

I enjoyed reading that old thread, esp. gnasher's humorous comment and Fred's Duboin hand analogy and suggestion that even hyper conservative upgraders should write 14+ to 17 on their convention card.

 

It seems reasonable to me to upgrade AJ2 T94 AT97 AJ6 and 96 985 KJ7 AKQJ2. I understand that the arguments for upgrading these 2 hand types are quite different.

[dboxley]

Do you mean your partner is the weaker player?

 

 

Of course. You will notice I said 'player', not 'hand'

[RunemPard]

Here is another one that I chose to open 1NT w/ tonight sitting NV...

 

Q10

QJ10

AK10

Q10762

 

Not because I feel this hand is worthy of being called a strong NT opening, but because of the information and defensive effect it has. Our card does show 15-17, and in the system details area given to us we have written that we may upgrade or downgrade a hand at times if we feel it is a worthy call.

[Statto]

For you I have repeated the simulation with partner having exactly 10 HCP balanced.

Now trick average is 7.8 and 3NT still goes down on 2 out of 3 deals.

Thanks for that. I think making on 1 in 3 deals opposite a 10 count is good enough to justify 1NT here. DD analysis of course assumes opponents will find the killer lead, which they may not. And opposite a 10 count we are only looking to make 3NT on a fraction more than 1 in 2 deals anyway.

 

Whether the preemptive effect compensates for the instances where partner will put you into a no-play 3NT everyone has to decide for himself.

It's not just the preemptive effect. Even if opps don't stick an oar in, if we start with 1♣, rebid 1NT, and end up in 3NT, they are more likely to find the right lead.

[phil_20686]

Maybe this is all about hand evaluation

 

A couple of years ago we had a thread http://www.bridgebas...rade+%2Bnotrump

 

the hand in question was

 

♠AJ2 ♥T94 ♦AT97 ♣AJ6

and the general mood was not to upgrade. Now we have

 

♠96 ♥985 ♦KJ7 ♣AKQJ2

and here a lot of people think upgrading is automatic.

 

To me it looks the other way round and I do not consider it close.

 

It seems to me that most people who are advocating 1N bid is because with xx xxx in the majors it will be much harder for the opps to bid their 4M contract. Not because it is "worth" a 1N bid particularly. You are telling a small lie to gain a tactical advantage whenever they have a major suit game.

 

On the other thread your major holdings were AJx T9x and you had a lot more defence generally, so there is no reason to make any tactical considerations. its a pure "what is this hand worth question".

 

I would open both 1N.

[TimG]

At the risk of offending Justin, and with no intention of doing so at all, in my opinion if your cc states 15-17 and your partnership style treats this as a 1N opener, you are being unethical.

Isn't this attributing a degree of precision in hand evaluation to "point count" or "high card points" that does not actually exist?

[mikeh]

Isn't this attributing a degree of precision in hand evaluation to "point count" or "high card points" that does not actually exist?

No

 

Simplistically: ask 95% of the actual duplicate playing population (including club games) how many hcp this hand has and they will tell you: 14, and most would look at you funny....can't you count????

 

The CC, at least in NA, is a crude device, since those who designed it seem to represent that 95%. In my view, the post by Justin represents the way to deal with the tendency of the 5% to understand that 4321 is not the be-all and end-all of hand evaluation.

 

One needn't even go so far as Justin, tho my WBF cc practice has been to note 'frequent upgrades into and out of 1N and 2N opening bids' and my system notes also contain this. On an ABCL CC, I confess to some laziness sometimes, but if I have time, I always put in either 14+ or 15- as the low end for the strong 1N, when I play strong NT.

 

As for the actual hand, in my view the major suit holdings are so horrible that I don't understand how anyone can seriously argue that this is a strong 14, worth 15, for notrump purposes. As has been pointed out, the KNR valuation is misleading in that regard. These two flaws at least offset the plus of the AKQJx suit.

 

Indeed, the only logical reason I have seen advanced so far for 1N is the preemptive effect! What does that tell you about the view of those who espouse the call? They see it as primarily a blocking device, coupled with some unease about opening 1♣.

 

Put another way: every bridge player draws the line somewhere. For the great bulk, it is a numerical exercise. For the better player, it involves more and subtler factors, and is often not at all numerical. But we all draw the line...and therefore there is ALWAYS going to be a degree of precision.

 

In my own case, I am sometimes influenced, in close decisions, by the presence or absence of 8s and 9s, let alone the obvious 10's. KJ98 is a much better holding than KJ42, as one obvious example.

 

Here, the majors are so bad that I downgrade by as much as the clubs make me upgrade.

[Statto]

Simplistically: ask 95% of the actual duplicate playing population (including club games) how many hcp this hand has and they will tell you: 14, and most would look at you funny....can't you count????

Sell them some magic beans, in exchange for a cow.

[Zelandakh]

Simplistically: ask 95% of the actual duplicate playing population (including club games) how many hcp this hand has and they will tell you: 14, and most would look at you funny....can't you count????

While this is true it is like asking them what a 1♥ opening means - how many would reply by asking what the bidding system is? Surely the correct answer (for an upgrade) is "14, but I would treat it as 15" or "14 but worth 15". I upgrade and downgrade all the time and while I describe a 1NT opening as "12 to 14, or a good 11" (plus some stuff about distribution) I would not describe the 1NT rebid as "14+ to 17" or whatever. Perhaps I should, dunno. Our agreement is 15-17; if I upgrade a 14 count it is because I think it is worth 15. Obviously with a strong NT there are tactical reasons for upgrading too. If you do this then it is certainly not full disclosure not to let the opponents know. I do not think bringing in the massed ranks of Walruses playing bridge in clubs is particularly useful to the debate though.

[mike777]

This may not be extremely interesting, but I will put it here for opinions. You are playing a very standard 2455 system. It is MP at a mid-level local club. You count your cards, flip them over, and see...

 

♠96

♥985

♦KJ7

♣AKQJ2

 

I chose to open 1NT over 1C. I had 2 very bad suits, but I felt that the possibility of making 5 club tricks alone upgraded this to a 1NT opening. I also felt I am far too strong to reply 1NT to a 1C-1H/S reply. By bidding 1NT, I also have a better chance to find out about 5 card majors from partner directly.

 

Do you all agree w/ my choice?

 

 

 

1nt but if 15-17 i can live with 1c and 2c ...what is the question here?

--

 

again prefer 1nt but 1c and rebid 2c ok.

 

14-16 hands just hard to bid but we know that.

[phil_20686]

Simplistically: ask 95% of the actual duplicate playing population (including club games) how many hcp this hand has and they will tell you: 14.

 

But the correct question is how many HCP this hand is worth. :)

 

If you ask the wrong question you get the wrong answer :P

[EricK]

Is there a difference between bidding 1NT on a 14 point hand because we feel it is "worth 15" in some sense, and bidding 1NT on a 14 pt hand because we feel it is a better tactical opening bid than 1♣? If someone said they upgraded a hand into 1NT I would assume they meant the former, not the latter. So I'm not sure if disclosing that you upgrade hands counts as full disclosure if the bid can be for tactical reasons in a potentially contested auction rather than because you genuinely value the hand as 15 and hope, thereby, for a more accurate constructive auction.

[han]

Here, the majors are so bad that I downgrade by as much as the clubs make me upgrade.

 

Will you downgrade for having a small doubleton?

 

You probably will also adowngrade when you have two honors tight.

 

You will also downgrade when you hold Qx or Jx.

 

You will also downgrade when your honors are divided evenly, because honors are worth more when working together.

 

You will also downgrade when your honors are centered in two suits, because then your other suits are too weak.

 

Sounds like you can safely remove that 14+ from your card.

[han]

But I know I would have a feeling of being ripped off.

 

You wouldn't call the director, and you think that misrepresenting your hand for tactical reasons is part of the game, but you would feel ripped off. How does that make sense? Do you also feel ripped off when somebody squeezes you?

[han]

By the way, I agree with rhm that the 4333 hand with the many 10's and 9's will probably do better in 3NT than this one. This can easily be checked with a double dummy simulation. It actually surprises me that nobody followed up on gnasher's excellent suggestion in the old thread.

[cherdano]

I have to put in a word for the ♣J, I don't think he is getting the respect he deserves in this thread.

 

If partner has two clubs, then the club J:

- adds nothing 36% of the time (suit splits 3-3),

- adds one or two tricks 48% of the time (suit splits 4-2, we may ore may not have time to develop the suit)

- adds one trick 17% of the time (5-1 or 6-0)

 

If partner has 3 clubs, then the club J:

- adds nothing 68% of the time (3-2 split),

- adds one or two tricks 28% of the time, and

- adds one trick 4% of the time.

 

In the "one or two" cases I think it will be two more often than one - even if we have the tempo to develop an additional trick, we could often use that tempo to develop a trick elsewhere instead.

 

So let's be conservative and count these as 1.5. Then it adds, on average, 0.9 tricks when partner has two clubs, and 0.46 tricks when partner has three clubs.

 

That looks like a pretty reasonable workload for one hcp to me!

[mikeh]

Will you downgrade for having a small doubleton?

 

You probably will also adowngrade when you have two honors tight.

 

You will also downgrade when you hold Qx or Jx.

 

You will also downgrade when your honors are divided evenly, because honors are worth more when working together.

 

You will also downgrade when your honors are centered in two suits, because then your other suits are too weak.

 

Sounds like you can safely remove that 14+ from your card.

another typical han post. Ever have anything positive to contribute, han?

[han]

I think I often have something positive to contribute.

[phil_20686]

Is there a difference between bidding 1NT on a 14 point hand because we feel it is "worth 15" in some sense, and bidding 1NT on a 14 pt hand because we feel it is a better tactical opening bid than 1♣? If someone said they upgraded a hand into 1NT I would assume they meant the former, not the latter. So I'm not sure if disclosing that you upgrade hands counts as full disclosure if the bid can be for tactical reasons in a potentially contested auction rather than because you genuinely value the hand as 15 and hope, thereby, for a more accurate constructive auction.

 

When you say "i did it for tactical reasons" what you mean is essentially that you are violating your agreement. I mean, bridge is a tactical game.

[mikeh]

Will you downgrade for having a small doubleton?

 

You probably will also adowngrade when you have two honors tight.

 

You will also downgrade when you hold Qx or Jx.

 

You will also downgrade when your honors are divided evenly, because honors are worth more when working together.

 

You will also downgrade when your honors are centered in two suits, because then your other suits are too weak.

 

Sounds like you can safely remove that 14+ from your card.

I don't downgrade for a small doubleton. I do downgrade for xx xxx or xxx xx in the majors...not to take it out of a 1N, if I held 15, but as a reason to not upgrade...that point seems to have been lost on han

 

I don't downgrade when I hold a Qx or Jx, but I don't upgrade for that holding either

 

I don't downgrade for having honours divided evenly, but I don't upgrade for that reason either

 

I do upgrade for having a suit containing a sequence or near sequence of honours, counting 10's as honours.

 

I don't downgrade for having honours in short suits, but I don't upgrade for it either...I will upgrade for honours in long suits, especially if accompanied by 10's and I also like 8's and 9's.

 

I upgrade for A's and K's and downgrade for lots of Q's and J's, but not to take a hand out of 1N.

 

I almost never downgrade out of range...I can't recall the last time I did that, even with, say, a QJ tight holding. But when I decide on an upgrade, I look at negatives as well as positives, and think anyone who doesn't, is letting machismo interfere with logic...

 

That, however, has little to do with the hand in the OP. I understand the 1N bid as a tactical distortion, but not as a 'this hand is a strong 1N opener'.

[han]

I don't downgrade for a small doubleton. I do downgrade for xx xxx or xxx xx in the majors...not to take it out of a 1N, if I held 15, but as a reason to not upgrade...that point seems to have been lost on han

 

No, I understood that you downgraded for holding xx xxx in the majors the first time you wrote that. I think that the discussion in this thread was interesting and also entertaining. Some people might look at a strong 5-card minor and see it as a reason to upgrade. Others might also look at the weak majors and see this is a reason not to upgrade. Yet another consider the weak majors as a reason to bid 1NT for tactical reasons.

 

I don't know exactly what this hand is worth, is the hand worse than Kxx xx KJx AQJxx? Maybe we shouldn't upgrade that hand either, unless we add a few good spots? Perhaps such questions are style issues that have no clear answer. The ethical considerations don't seem so interesting to me, ethical players will be ethical regardless of their style, and the same goes for less ethical players.

 

I do think that when we open 1NT with such a hand and have a quick auction to 3NT, then we will make that contract more often than we should. For example, RHO might look at two small clubs in the dummy and shift to it at his first opportunity. Maybe that makes such a hand less suitable for a double dummy simulation than I thought earlier.

[TimG]

By bidding 1NT, I also have a better chance to find out about 5 card majors from partner directly.

I'd open 1C, but I understand 1N and don't have a problem with it. But, I think the general idea expressed above is a bit dangerous. When planning an auction, there is often a desire to find out about partner's hand so you can make a decision. There should also be a priority put on telling partner what you have so that they can make a decision. I think too few players think about the auction in terms of telling partner instead of in terms of getting information from partner.

[Benoit35]

If I'm talked out of a major game because my opponent opened a 15-17 1NT with this hand... Good bid, you pulled a fast one on us. I won't tell you how to upgrade or downgrade your hand.

 

Fielding is another story. If your partner has a 9 10-count, you had better not stop below 3NT...