Do you push and gamble

[Mbodell]

[hv=pc=n&n=sqhakj6dak82cj854&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=p1c(art%2C%2016+)p1h(gf%2C%208+%2C%204+S)p1s(relay)p2h(4S%2C5+C)p2s(relay)p2n(2nt%20short%20H)p3c(relay)p3d(4%3D1%3D3%3D5)p3s(1430%20for%20c)p4d(2%20kc%2C%20no%20Q)p]133|200[/hv]

 

So you know that you either have 0 outside losers and a nine card fit to the KJ (2-1 favorite to also have the T), or 0 outside and a nine card fit to AJ (2-1 favorite to also have T), or 1 outside loser and a nine card fit to AKJ (50-50 to also have the T).

 

Would you try your luck with 6♣ playing your best for this board?

 

Is it worth pushing, knowing you are down a lot in the match?

 

Incidentally, I also had the chance to relay 3♥ on this hand, instead of key card, and if I do that I get a 4♣ response showing 4 controls (AA or AKK) and then over a 4♦ denial cue bid start, partner would show one of the top 2 honors in both black suits by bidding 4nt. Now I'd know nine card fit, missing the K, no outside losers, but the Q would be a mystery (4/7 chance partner has it), but I couldn't get out in 5♣ as that would continue the relay ask.

[barmar]

I'm a little confused about your system. In http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/topic/53356-refuse-partners-captain-signoff-with-a-running-suit/ you said that 1♥ response to the strong club shows 5+♠, why does it only show 4+ this time?

[mike777]

I play in 5c I am missing a keycard and trump Q.

 

 

btw in the other thread you just said 1c=1h shows 8+ and 5s+ yes?

[Mbodell]

Sorry, the explanation in the other thread was wrong. 1♥ shows 4+ spades, not 5+. I've corrected the explanation in the other thread.

[gszes]

i dont know enought about your system in order to intelligently

decide how to proceed however from what I know so far we have

a 9 card suit missing the Q and missing one other key card. This

alone would normally limit me to 5c. Here we cant count to 12 even

if we manage to lose only one trick due to club Q and missing key card.

state of the match or no it is bad for parnership morale to

arbitrarily push to slam on a prayer and a whim.

[han]

We don't have enough information to judge whether 6C is good (Axxx x QJx A10xxx) or bad (AJxx x xxx Kxxxx). I almost never let the score influence my decision but this seems a very good opportunity to do so. I'd bid 6 if we were well behind and bid 5 if we were way ahead.