what´s the percentage play?

[affe82]

You open a 15-17nt and partner is nice enough to raise you to game.

 

All non-vulnerable, you dealt, Imps.

 

So:

 

S W N E

1nt pass 3nt pass

pass pass

 

lead is 2nd/3rd/5th, this the layout:

 

A9

J9

A543

JT965

 

 

KT63

Q632

K

AK73

 

lead: J of diamonds.

 

First trick is J, x, x, K

Second is 4, 3, 2, A of clubs (ace lead, tried to make it as clear as possible who has which card).

 

So it all comes down to play the clubs for 5tricks (or endplaying RHO holding something like spade ????/AK??/xx/Qxx on third club and J of hearts).

Is this still a "9ever, 8 never" type of hand or is the inference from the lead of long diamonds strong enough to create a vacant spaces argument for the finesse?

(if vacant spaces can give some edge to the finesse line is the endplay version an argument to strenghten the decision to go for the drop since there is an extra chance good enough?)

 

Bonusquestion: if lefty held 3442 with Kxxx, QJTx would he favour leading diamonds to hearts in this sequence (taking away from the interference of the lead to be from 5+, thus ruining a vacant spaces argument for the finesse).

 

Did I just screw this thing with vacant spaces up completely or is my thought process of this being awfully close a valid one?

[ArtK78]

I think you are thinking too hard.

 

The lead of the ♦J on this auction tells you essentially nothing other than the fact that the ♦Q is probably on your right and LHO decided to lead diamonds instead of hearts (probably because the heart honors are split, LHO has no overwhelming heart length, LHO has a sequence in diamonds with some length, or a combination of the above).

 

None of these possibilities is of such a magnitude as to change the percentage play in the club suit - 2-2 clubs (the possibility of a singleton ♣Q has been eliminated). I would just play the ♣K and, if that does not bring down the Q, look for a ninth trick later.

 

Playing RHO for Qxx of clubs with no strong indication that it is the percentage play is just wrong.

[jillybean]

affe82, please use the hand diagram tool, it makes reading hand diagrams a lot more user friendly :)

[inquiry]

This is a good use of the vacant space theory, I just don't think you have enough info to apply the logic in this situation. If west had five diamonds, for instance, the 5-3 split will be enough to change the odds if...when you lead the club jack from dummy and east plays low, that is last insignificant club. My math is challenged, but of the two possibilities, east with Qxx originally, or east with Qx favors now (due to the 5-3 diamond split) east holding the queen. That is, there will be 8 vacant spaces with east (after the club play) to only 7 with west. So the odds will be 8 to 7 (53.3%) that the queen is with east. IF west had 6 diamonds instead of five, the odds get distorted even more for east having the queen (9 to 6).

 

Having said that, do you really have enough info to decide that west has long diamonds? Your hypothetical holding (king-4th in hearts, versus QJTX in diamonds being an example). There is also the west could be 3=3=4=3 hand, but in that case, you are always losing the queen. If I thought west had long diamonds, I would back my decision and play east for the queen if I didn't find another line I wanted to try.

[phil_20686]

You also have no very convenient way to cross to dummy. If you cross witht he ace of spades you are giving up options. A9 is the kind of holding that invites defensive error. If you cash the K and no queen appears just play an extra club and see what happens. If they play a diamond back duck one round and win the third round of diamonds and you have some options now if diamonds are 5-3. Cross in spades and they have an easy spade switch later.

[SteveMoe]

Modern tendency is to lead a Major even from a short suit against the 1N-3N auction. While your inference on ♦ length is probably right, I am not sure playing for the ♣ finesse is the best use of dummy's entry. I would cash ♣s and hope they open the majors for me. I'm rpobably duckin the 2nd round of ♦ when they are continued.