5-level decision

[Hanoi5]

MP's, all white, you deal:

 

♠AKQT9xx

♥xxx

♦x

♣Q9

 

1♠-(3♦)-4♠-(5♦)

???

[Phil]

Any particular reason why I didn't open 4♠ initially?

[Statto]

5♠ looks obvious now, but like Phil I'd have opened 4♠.

[ahydra]

Do we have anything stronger available to raise spades instead of 4S? Are we playing forcing passes?

 

Edit: assuming "yes" and "yes", I would bid 5S

 

Put me down for 4S opening as well.

 

ahydra

[mikeh]

I also would open 4♠, this being such a one-dimensional hand with zero defence.

 

However, I am not bidding 5♠.

 

I like this problem because, I think, it raises issues that many don't consider at the table.

 

Consider this: at many tables, we open 4♠. We don't yet know how that would pan out, but there is at least a chance that some of our competitors will be playing 4♠.

 

We can only score well, compared to those players, by passing. The chances of making 5♠, which would allow us to push, are remote since RHO rates to hold power sitting over partner...whose hand is somewhere between a good limit raise and a weak opening hand....stronger raises bid 4♦.

 

If 4♠ makes 10 or fewer tricks, then bidding 5♠ loses to all who play 4♠.

 

Otoh, if both 4♠ and 5♦ fail, we have done brilliantly by our choice of opening bid...we are beating all 4♠ declarers and likely pushing all those who opened 4♠ and then had rho balance.....altho in fairness, on many such hands, partner will push to 5♠, suggesting that bidding will break even more than I have so far suggested.

 

Leaving aside the implications of the field opening 4♠, there is only one situation in which bidding 5♠ wins: that is when they make 5♦ and we go for less than 500 in 5♠. I think this combination is the single most probable outcome, but I don't think it is 50% or, if it is, much over that.

 

And passing wins whenever 5♦ fails (I see no likelihood of 5♠ making) or 5♠ goes for 500. While I see these as individually less probable, the combination (we win on either of these) makes me see pass as offering pretty good odds.

 

And factoring this in with the fact that we may have already prevented ourselves from playing 4♠ makes pass my choice.

 

I think it close.

 

This post raises the common topic of not changing horses in mid stream. We took a position early in the auction, which position has left us in a situation that many holding our cards won't face. It is often best to assume that our position was a winning position....if it wasn't, then we have probably already lost, while if it was, we may be about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by guessing that it wasn't and trying to 'catch up'.

[JLOGIC]

5S, I would also open 1S.

[ggwhiz]

5S, I would also open 1S.

 

Yeah, just on style my pards 4♠ bid is (almost) never beating 5♦ opposite this and a 4♠ opener by me shows a MUCH worse hand in 1st chair.