Simple judgement call (corrected)

[hrothgar]

Sorry about confusing the original post

 

IMPs, White on White

 

You hold

 

AJ8

J965

Q974

82

 

Partner opens 1NT showing standard 15-17 NT opening

What's your call?

[mgoetze]

Pass, unless your 1NT opening is something surprising.

[dkham]

As long as partner really has 15-17, and only accepts with a maximum, I'll bid Stayman then invite.

[bluecalm]

I think it's close playing standard 1NT (ie. not the one which includes like half of 14's). I prefer invite at imps, you gotta outplay them somewhere and the best place is to let them show defense skills.

[TimG]

I think this is a routine pass.

[billw55]

I think it's close playing standard 1NT (ie. not the one which includes like half of 14's). I prefer invite at imps, you gotta outplay them somewhere and the best place is to let them show defense skills.

Yes, I suppose it depends on how often I expect partner to upgrade into, or out of, 1NT.

 

For me this hand is an invite. There is some latent potential in the nines, and no lead seems especially fearsome (partner likely has a club value or two). On crude IMP odds, I am risking converting +90 into -50 (-140 swing), but I can also convert +150 to +400 (+250 swing), not to mention the times we find a heart fit. And I don't expect to be doubled often on such an auction.

[phil_20686]

Pass.

[Phil]

Pass.

 

My teammates defend really well, so they won't let a game slip through. Win 4.

[wyman]

Pass (following the "invite heavy, accept light" mantra).

[ArtK78]

There are a lot of players who I respect who always bid on this type of hand at IMPs red, and some who always bid on this type of hand at IMPs regardless of vulnerability.

 

I think this one is very close red at IMPs, and a clear pass at IMPs white. But I would not argue with anyone who would bid.

 

At matchpoints, it is a clear pass.

[mikeh]

Pass

 

Unlike Phil, who expects to win 4 imos when the opps bid game at the other table, I expect to win 5 imps...my partner plays better than Phil's, it seems :P

[kenrexford]

I think this merits the risk of a Stayman call at IMP scoring. If partner bids 2H, my hand is now worth just enough for an invite. If he bids 2S, I would pass. If 2D, I will cross my fingers and pass.

[billw55]

This is interesting to me. In a climate where most experts seems to open 11 counts routinely, respond on nearly nothing, and bid aggressively in various other ways, here comes some unexpected conservatism. My simple mind computes 17+8=25 ---> we may have game. Am I just really misevaluating this hand?

[TimG]

I did some simulating with this sort of thing a few years ago. I went into it with the opinion that it probably wasn't right to invite with a random 8 HCP hand and the simulations reinforced that opinion. I'm just tossing that out there without providing any detailed results, so take for what you will. The results were not nearly so overwhelming that I couldn't be wrong.

 

A few things:

 

+ At the same time, I compared some different evaluation techniques, modified counts, some of which took into account Tens and some of which valued higher honors more. I was surprised that simple 4321 HCP was as good as any of the modified counts. (Strictly in predicting number of tricks with two balanced hands somewhere in the game range.)

 

+ Remember that in a 15-17 NT range, 15 counts occur more frequently than 16 counts which occur more frequently than 17 counts.

 

+ When you do something like invite via Stayman, you give the opponents a bit of extra information that makes the defense easier. Even 1N-2N-3N is easier to defend against than 1N-3N. So, when you use Stayman on this hand, you are cutting into any edge you think you might have over those who pass.

 

+ Sometimes your pass does not end the auction.

 

I think the bottom line is that neither the passers nor the inviters have a strong enough case to insist with certainty that they are right, or at least insist that they have a significant edge.

[gwnn]

This is interesting to me. In a climate where most experts seems to open 11 counts routinely, respond on nearly nothing, and bid aggressively in various other ways, here comes some unexpected conservatism. My simple mind computes 17+8=25 ---> we may have game. Am I just really misevaluating this hand?

We may have game, but we may also go down in 2NT. 2NT is not a nice contract to be in.

[ArtK78]

This is interesting to me. In a climate where most experts seems to open 11 counts routinely, respond on nearly nothing, and bid aggressively in various other ways, here comes some unexpected conservatism. My simple mind computes 17+8=25 ---> we may have game. Am I just really misevaluating this hand?

17+8=25. Yes. But several points are worth noting:

 

(1) 25 point notrump games do not always make (same with 4♥ if you find a fit).

(2) Just on the basis of probabilities, partner is most likely to have 15 HCP, second most likely to have 16 HCP (in which case he might accept the invite) and third most likely to have 17 HCP.

(3) You are committing yourself to a 2 level contract which may turn a plus into a minus.

(4) Every so often partner has what he thinks is a good 14 HCP and opened 1NT.

[bluecalm]

my hand is now worth just enough for an invite. If he bids 2S, I would pass. If 2D, I will cross my fingers and pass.

 

Passing 2D is surely huge mistake. There is no reason to think it makes more often than 2N and you are missing many good games on hands when you struggle to make 2D.

 

Am I just really misevaluating this hand?

 

Probably most people who insta pass here don't play classical 15-17 1NT but popular 14+-17 one which is considerably weakier on average thus makes passing more attractive option.

This is very good 8. It makes 3NT opposite 16-17hcp balanced without 5M 53% of the time dd which translates to probably about 58-60% in practice (according to my experience with dd simuls in such situations and comparing it to some real life results but I can't prove it definitely). You also get additional chance of spiking 4-4 heart fit or maybe even 5-4 or 5-3 major. I would say that if you open 1NT with 5M-3-3-2 routinely passing is clear mistakes and opposite "normal" 1NT it's not that bad but still I wouldn't pass.

Intuition is influenced by experience and if say: Ax KQx xxx AJxxx is 1N opening for you, then you naturally start passing 8's as those weakish (in context of trick taking in NT contracts) hands start to constitute significant part of your opening range.

[phil_20686]

This is interesting to me. In a climate where most experts seems to open 11 counts routinely, respond on nearly nothing, and bid aggressively in various other ways, here comes some unexpected conservatism. My simple mind computes 17+8=25 ---> we may have game. Am I just really misevaluating this hand?

 

There are certainly lots of eight counts where we go down in 2N. And J9xx is not a great holding for a trump suit, so if you stayman and p bids hearts I dont feel the hand has improved that much.

 

OTOH, there are plenty of balanced eight counts where I would make an invitation. This just isnt one of them. Two jacks, no tens, mediocre suit texture. It just doesn't feel right.

 

Playing around a bit gets you easily to hands where I would accept though:

 

Jxx

AJ9x

Q9xx

xx

 

is already a much better hand, especially if you bid stayman and partner responds in hearts. I think this would be v close now.

 

xxx

AJ9x

QJ9x

xx

 

would be a clear invite for me.

[billw55]

(see below)

17+8=25. Yes. But several points are worth noting:

 

(1) 25 point notrump games do not always make (same with 4♥ if you find a fit).

Of course not. But we want to bid 50% games white at IMPs, right?

(2) Just on the basis of probabilities, partner is most likely to have 15 HCP, second most likely to have 16 HCP (in which case he might accept the invite) and third most likely to have 17 HCP.

This came up in a similar thread several months ago. I say the same thing: so what? Partner can actually look at his hand and know how many points he has.

(3) You are committing yourself to a 2 level contract which may turn a plus into a minus.

I mentioned that in my previous post. Turning +90 to -50 loses 140 = 4 IMP. Turning +150 to +400 gains 250 = 6 IMP. So (roughly) we have 3:2 odds in our favor?

(4) Every so often partner has what he thinks is a good 14 HCP and opened 1NT.

Indeed. But if his upgrade sense is correct, the hand is worth 15 anyway.

 

If we don't like to be in a 25 hcp game, what will we do when partner opens 1NT and we hold 10? Will we only invite?

[TimG]

(3) You are committing yourself to a 2 level contract which may turn a plus into a minus.

I mentioned that in my previous post. Turning +90 to -50 loses 140 = 4 IMP. Turning +150 to +400 gains 250 = 6 IMP. So (roughly) we have 3:2 odds in our favor?

These aren't the only possibilities. Sometimes you turn +90 (1NT making) into -100 (3N down 2), for example.

[gwnn]

Nobody said we don't want to be in 25 hcp games, just that finding out whether we have 25 hcp combined comes at too high a cost.

[mgoetze]

This is very good 8.

This is surprising to me, I wouldn't have thought so.

[billw55]

These aren't the only possibilities. Sometimes you turn +90 (1NT making) into -100 (3N down 2), for example.

Certainly, there are other possible outcomes. That's why I said "rough". I omitted cases like your example, because (hopefully) we will decline the invitation most of the time that 3NT is down two, and be in only 2NT-1. Not all of the time though. There are also various cases where we are doubled, perhaps a nontrivial minority.

[nigel_k]

I would invite on this.

 

It is the flipside of the other threads where people are upgrading 14 and 17 HCP hands but never downgrading even quite poor 15 and 18 HCP hands. This is justified on the basis of being 'aggressive'. But it's not aggressive at all if responder compensates by bidding less. You're simply playing a NT range lower than 15-17. The answers in this thread are consistent with that.

 

Also, the morbid fear of ever playing in 2NT is overdone IMO, especially in this forum.

[gwnn]

Also, the morbid fear of ever playing in 2NT is overdone IMO, especially in this forum.

Granted, 'if you make 7 tricks you should be in 1NT, if 9 then in 3NT!' is a slightly similar argument to 'calling in poker is never right, if you have him beat you should raise, if not, you should fold!'. However, neither of them is entirely fallacious and in this case I don't think it's that much overdone. :)

 

The argument for passing with many 8's and just raising to 3NT with many 9's goes further than just a morbid fear. There is also an argument on information. If you invite w/ 8 and partner passes, they know he is a minimum so they may defend better and also lead more accurately knowing that we have 23-24 hcp. Now we not only have to make 1 more trick than the passers, but also against better informed defenders. If you invite and partner accepts, it will again make it easier to them to lead and defend later. Well anyway, I'm not really addressing this part to nigel_k, because I'm sure he knows about this aspect too but maybe some other people.