EarlPurple Posted November 8, 2004 Report Share Posted November 8, 2004 [hv=d=n&v=b&w=sa6hj10642d6ckj1063&e=s852ha83dakcaq982]266|100|Scoring: XIMP[/hv] Hands are rotated. North passed, East opened 1NT, West bid a 2♦ transfer to hearts, doubled by North. East completed the transfer and South bid 3♦. Subsequently you end up in 6♣ by West with no further opposition bidding. ♦Q is led. When you eventually try trumps, North is void. So you cannot fully eliminate spades and diamonds while drawing all the trumps and leaving trumps in both hands before losing a heart. That means you must pick up hearts for just one loser by attacking the suit yourself. What do you think is the best way to do that? The following lines are options: - Start in hand with the jack. If North plays low, run it. Next round lay down the ace and hope to find North with Hx. If North covers, take the ace and lead one back to the 10. So either way you pick up Hx with North. - Start by leading a low heart from dummy. If South jumps in with an honour, on the next round finesse against North. - Lay down the ace, hoping to catch a player with a singleton honour, or KQ alone in any hand. This may also work as part of a partial-elimination. - Any other line? Not important what worked at the table. I would like to know what the correct line is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartA Posted November 8, 2004 Report Share Posted November 8, 2004 To start with J from hand, handles North with Q/K stiff, Kx or Qx, Kxx or Qxx, or KQ(x)(x) (without 9) To start small from dummy can handle South with stiff HK/Q/9, Kx, Qx, 9x or K9, Q9, KQ (assume declarer guesses correctly). To cash HA first, you can only handle K/Q stiff or KQ doubleton from either side. Line #1 is the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted November 8, 2004 Report Share Posted November 8, 2004 Play Sth for Hx in H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted November 9, 2004 Report Share Posted November 9, 2004 i agree with ron, it seems the best chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted November 9, 2004 Report Share Posted November 9, 2004 Hi. Sorry Jimmy, sorry Ron, but this is not even close. HeartA got it right (well, he will not make with KQ tight on side, since has to play for singleton K or Q, but that is only small problem). If you want to consider this heart suit in isolation, the correct play is ...... Heart JACK from dummy, if this loses to WEST honor, then, cash heart ACE. This works anytime EAST has Hx, or WEST has KQ doubleton. Total percentage of that, is 23.74% But this isn't all. The is also the times that EAST COVERS the JACK with the an honor, you are still in the game. Win the ACE and lead a low heart. If West has a singleton NINE or doubleton NINE, the TEN will force the other honor and the heart queen is a winner. The chance of 9 or 9x with WEST is 9.70%). This brings the odds up to 33.35%. You also have the idea that EAST has a singleton K or Q, you win the ace and play a heart towards the Ten, this brings the odds of losing only one heart up to 39%. Playing the ACE hoping for singleton K, or Q, or doubleton KQ is only 18% chance. And leading low towards the JTxxx to play WEST for Hx is better, but not a lot better. It works if WEST has Hx or H, but loses to KQ doubleton, this comes to 26%. Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtfanclub Posted November 9, 2004 Report Share Posted November 9, 2004 ♦Q is led. When you eventually try trumps, North is void. So you cannot fully eliminate spades and diamonds while drawing all the trumps and leaving trumps in both hands before losing a heart. That means you must pick up hearts for just one loser by attacking the suit yourself. OK, I don't get it. ♦ AK, sluffing a spade. spade to the ace, club back to hand, ruff a spade high, club back to hand, ruff your last spade high, high club from dummy, ♥J, playing the ace whether North covers or not, small heart back toward dummy. Works any time a heart honor is singleton or doubleton, or the 9 is doubleton and North covers. Because of the elimination, the player with the Hx has to win the trick and allow you to ruff on the board while discarding your last heart from hand. But what I just did was fully eliminate spades and diamonds while drawing all the trumps. I even ruff the spades high, which means the only risk would be a 9-1 split in diamonds or an 7-1 split in spades. You said it can't be done. So what did I miss? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted November 9, 2004 Report Share Posted November 9, 2004 OK, I don't get it. ♦ AK, sluffing a spade. spade to the ace,club back to hand ( 1 dummy club ), ruff a spade high ( 2nd dummy club ), club back to hand ( 3rd dummy club ), ruff your last spade high ( 4th dummy club ), high club from dummy ( 5th and last dummy club ), ♥J, playing the ace whether North covers or not, small heart back toward dummy. Works any time a heart honor is singleton or doubleton, or the 9 is doubleton and North covers. Because of the elimination, the player with the Hx has to win the trick and allow you to ruff on the board ( with the magic 6th dummy club ) while discarding your last heart from hand. But what I just did was fully eliminate spades and diamonds while drawing all the trumps. I even ruff the spades high, which means the only risk would be a 9-1 split in diamonds or an 7-1 split in spades. You said it can't be done. So what did I miss? What did you miss? The fact that the rules will not yet you use one of dummys trumps twice. Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtfanclub Posted November 9, 2004 Report Share Posted November 9, 2004 Thank you, I knew I was missing something stupid. I'm not drawing that last trump, then. Maybe the opps will do something dumb, maybe I'll get lucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlPurple Posted November 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2004 To start with J from hand, handles North with Q/K stiff, Kx or Qx, Kxx or Qxx, or KQ(x)(x) (without 9) It also picks up North with xxx and South with KQ. You run the jack and lose to the queen or king, then your ace next round picks up South's other honour. That was actually the lie of the cards so this play would have worked at the table, but as I said, what actually works at the table is not necessarily the best line. With no knowledge of any other suit, I think this line probably has the edge, but given that South showed up with the club length, does that favour North having the longer hearts? (He did). The double of 2♦ and subsequent 3♦ bid might suggest at 6-4 split (they were) but could also be 5-5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted November 11, 2004 Report Share Posted November 11, 2004 Hi. Sorry Jimmy, sorry Ron, but this is not even close. ~snip~[hv=d=n&v=b&w=sa6hj10642d6ckj1063&e=s852ha83dakcaq982]266|100|Scoring: XIMP[/hv] don't understand this comment... why isn't leading low toward the J♥ "even close?"... perhaps it isn't, but it seems to me there are more distributions where it works vs. where it doesn't... course i probably missed a couple or more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted November 11, 2004 Report Share Posted November 11, 2004 Too lazy to calculate %'s this AM, but I think the Hx combo's equal each other out when LHO rises with Hx. LHO should not rise of course, but RHO shouldn't cover from Hx either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted November 11, 2004 Report Share Posted November 11, 2004 To start with J from hand, handles North with Q/K stiff, Kx or Qx, Kxx or Qxx, or KQ(x)(x) (without 9) It also picks up North with xxx and South with KQ. You run the jack and lose to the queen or king, then your ace next round picks up South's other honour. yes.. it picks up north with 9xx and South with KQ... but not the other way around... To Jimmy, why isn't small heart towards JTxxx better? Fun exercise, work out the odds and get back to us. Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted November 11, 2004 Report Share Posted November 11, 2004 well i thought i did, which is why i asked... i come up with 9:7 for low heart toward the J (or 9:8) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted November 11, 2004 Report Share Posted November 11, 2004 Ok, we will do it the hard way. For the purpose here, we will call the king and the queen, JUST "K" (two kings, no queens). There turns out to be 18 distubutions, ranging from void KK9xx to KK9xx void... You can't make it against the two five-o's, so that knocks it down to 16 distributions. Now can you make it when KKx, KK9, KKxx. or KK9x. that removes another four possible distributions (this exludes some magic endplay). Nor can you make it if North has KK9 or KK9x. So you are down to just 10 possible club distributions where you can make the hand. These are. South North Probabliliy1 9 KKxx 2.826 2 9x KKx 6.7833 9xx KK 3.3914 K K9xx 5.6525 Kx K9x 13.565 6 Kxx K9 6.7837 K9 Kxx 6.7838 K9x Kx 13.5659 K9xx K 5.65210 KK 9xx 3.391 You COULD make the hand on the patterns in bold, which comes to 35.6%, but there is an illusion here. To make it when WEST has Kx, you have to lead low, and if LHO plays low, you have to pop up with the ACE on the way back. This cause problems when WEST plays the 9. Did he play that from holding one (when you have to hook on the way back, or from holding 7, where you have to go up with the ACE? You can't have your cake and edat it to... Against bad player, assume signleton nine, against good player, assume K9 doubleton, which is twice as likely. This reduces your ods from 35.6 to 32.7%. But we are still not done. What about when you play low towards the JT, and west jumps up with the K (either one). Now you have two choices. West could be KQ doubleton (condition 10), where you have to lead the ACE out dropping the second honor, or he could have singleton K (or Q) (condition 4) where you have to lead the JACK and run it. Since Singleton K or Q is twice as likely as KQ tight, you will lose to KQ doubleton behind you, so your odds drop from 32.7% to 29.38, the making table looks like this... South North Probabliliy1 9 KKxx 2.826 2 9x KKx 6.7833 9xx KK 3.3914 K K9xx 5.6525 Kx K9x 13.565 6 Kxx K9 6.7837 K9 Kxx 6.7838 K9x Kx 13.5659 K9xx K 5.65210 KK 9xx 3.391This totals not a terrible 29.4% Now. let's examine the lines where you start with the HEART JACK, with the following plan (so we don't have to subtract hands like we did above). If east covers, we are winning and playing low to the TEN. If East ducks, we let the jack ride (pesumably losing to the "K". then we bang the heart ACE on the next round. South North Probabliliy1 9 KKxx 2.8262 9x KKx 6.7833 9xx KK 3.3914 K K9xx 5.6525 Kx K9x 13.5656 Kxx K9 6.7837 K9 Kxx 6.783 8 K9x Kx 13.5659 K9xx K 5.65210 KK 9xx 3.391This totals a very reasonable 39% This is my definition of not very close. 29% versus 39%. Leading the heart jack is a third better than leading low towards the JT.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted November 11, 2004 Report Share Posted November 11, 2004 ok, thx... remember, i was playing south (as ron was too, i presume) for Hx, so if he had Kx or Qx i think he'd hop up... anyway, if south played low on my lead toward the jack, the plan all along was to play the ace next... but it is good to know the odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted November 11, 2004 Report Share Posted November 11, 2004 ok, thx... remember, i was playing south (as ron was too, i presume) for Hx, so if he had Kx or Qx i think he'd hop up... anyway, if south played low on my lead toward the jack, the plan all along was to play the ace next... but it is good to know the odds Hm.. so if south plays low from Kx you are doing what? Leading Ten trying to pin the 9x? I think whatever way you decide to go, it will still be less than that 39% on the correct (hehehehe) line. If South is willing to duck with Kx or Qx, you are toasted, unless your plan is to bang the ACE on the next round. I believe this was Ron's strategy. If South plays honor on first round, hook on the second. If South ducks (no matter how smoothly), to bang the ACE on the second round. Of course, shortly he will speak for himself. Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted November 11, 2004 Report Share Posted November 11, 2004 right, i expect that was ron's plan all along, and i know it is mine, low to the J, play A next... but your odds show this to be slightly (*grin) inferior Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted November 11, 2004 Report Share Posted November 11, 2004 win diamond, play diamond pitching a spade...spade to ace, club to my hand, ruff a spade, club to my hand, ruff a spade, play ace and a heart. wins against Hx anywhere or stiff honor anywhere. according to bens math 58.782 % chance of success. what do i win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jikl Posted November 11, 2004 Report Share Posted November 11, 2004 Still a trump out there Jlall Sean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted November 11, 2004 Report Share Posted November 11, 2004 where did it say trumps are 3-0? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted November 11, 2004 Report Share Posted November 11, 2004 oh cant read sorry B) i suck. try not to read posts with hands on it since usually someone gives the answer away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted November 12, 2004 Report Share Posted November 12, 2004 These percentages are lovelly Ben, but seems you are bypassing the vacant spaces rule afte rtrumps are 3-0, ,wich will make Hx in south more probable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted November 12, 2004 Report Share Posted November 12, 2004 These percentages are lovelly Ben, but seems you are bypassing the vacant spaces rule afte rtrumps are 3-0, ,wich will make Hx in south more probable. You are right of course. One can easily adjust the odds for the vacant space theory. With north void in trumps, the odds of the line with heart JAcK from dummy reduce to 35.7% and leading low to the JT increase to 29.7%, but the jack line is still better. If it was south void in hearts, the odds increase for jack from dummy to 41.4%, while the other line dips below 29%. I should have been more careful, but the point was which line was the best, and i was just dealing with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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