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restricted choice question


pooltuna

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team game on BBO

bd 7 all red

 

you hold

KQ864

QT4

83

JT8

 

the auction proceeds

 

you lho rho cho

- 1 X P

1 2 P P

P 2 all pass

 

dummy flops with

932

K5

QT92

AK96

 

opening lead is 2

 

 

play proceeds

trick1 2A78

trick 2 25QA

trick 3 A263

trick 4 K978

trick 4 2KA4

trick 5 3T J6

trick 6 4Q5T

trick 7 37

 

Now can anyone come up with a reason why restricted choice does NOT apply?

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Well it seems that LHO bid and rebid a heart suit of J9-sixth. If he had seven they'd probably find the heart ruff. He has only one club, so his shape is 2641 or 3631. With the first, holding six ratty hearts and apparently AKJx of diamonds, he likely would rebid 2d and not 2h. This pretty strongly indicates playing for the drop in spades.
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Why did I play K?

 

Restricted choice undoubtedly does apply, but it might be overridden by these two other inferences:

- Adam's point that LHO might have bid AKJx instead of rebidding J987xx.

- If RHO has a finessable trump, LHO could have beaten this by playing a second heart.

 

We should also, of course, find out what their carding is, because that may tell us how the diamonds break.

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yes, Two4Bridge, CHO is "centre hand opponent", i.e. partner. Whether partner is CHO on this hand (or any other hand) is a function of who you are and who she is. I certainly have played with several people where CHO is more appropriate than partner; one or two of whom I've played with again.
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yes, Two4Bridge, CHO is "centre hand opponent", i.e. partner. Whether partner is CHO on this hand (or any other hand) is a function of who you are and who she is. I certainly have played with several people where CHO is more appropriate than partner; one or two of whom I've played with again.

I would assume that in the expert forum most would know that CHO usually sits between LHO and RHO...

 

...which appears to be not the case in the OP.

you lho rho cho

 

Or maybe RHO had taken the seat before CHO could. And now CHO's choice was restricted to the other 2 seats?

 

Rik

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Well, so would I, Rik. But when someone asks, apparently seriously, "Before I attempt to follow, isn't cho your partner?", I feel a polite-ish answer won't go astray. If I Have Been Trolled, then IHBT. IHBT before, and will again.
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It is restricted choice situation but what restricted choice does is change probabilities (specifically cut probability of holding with 2 equal cards in half). If those probabilities were far away to begin with (which they seem to be in this case) restricted choice won't change the correct decision.

 

In the classic example of AKTxx to xxxx suit initial holding of J/Q/QJ are more or less equally probable (1/3, 1/3, 1/3) so seeing J gives us: 1/3 - 1/6 (1/6 = 1/3*1/2) or 66%-33% for stiff J.

Here if your estimation was say 60% for AJT and 20% for AJ/AT each it still gives 30-20 or 60-40 for LHO holding AJT after applying restricted choice.

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[hv=pc=n&s=skq864hqt4d83cjt8&n=s932hk5dqt92cak96&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=1hdp1s2hpp2sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

That wasn't so hard was it?

 

trick 1 ♣2A78

trick 2 ♠25QA

trick 3 ♦A263

trick 4 ♦K978

 

renumbering...

 

trick 5 ♥2KA4

trick 6 ♣3T ♠J 6

trick 7 ♦4Q5♥T

trick 8 ♠37

 

So I suppose the question boils down to:

 

Is LHO

 

a) AJ, J9xxxx, AKJx, x

 

or:

 

b) AJT, J9xxxx, AKx, x

 

(Which would you rather lead the stiff club on - "a" or "b"?)

 

There's a huge clue in the opponents carding. Do you see it?

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Well, so would I, Rik. But when someone asks, apparently seriously, "Before I attempt to follow, isn't cho your partner?", I feel a polite-ish answer won't go astray. If I Have Been Trolled, then IHBT. IHBT before, and will again.

You weren't trolled. Read the OP again. The OP put CHO on the right of RHO...

That could also be a fun game, but in bridge CHO is sitting on the left of RHO.

 

To the OP I would say: If you want to be funny and use terms like "CHO", then at least make sure that your post is still readible.

 

Rik

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actually, CHO sits on the right of RHO but if you go through the four players clockwise, CHO will come before RHO (in the list of players, the letters 'CHO' will be on the left of the letters 'RHO'). This shows the inconsistency of writing from left to right and the clock. Of course, it all depends on whether you are sitting on the clock's hands or looking at the hands from outside. I think the second scenario is more plausible.
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