Declare play

[frank0]

[hv=pc=n&s=s98732hk53dq6cj43&n=sajt64ha742d9cak6&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=1ddp1s2h3sp4sppp]266|200[/hv]

♦K, 9, 2, 6

West shift to ♥6

[ahydra]

Losing 1D, 1H, 1C and 1S, maybe two if I'm unlucky. So already not looking good!

 

Maybe I can squeeze West in the rounded suits? Certainly I can't do a squeeze involving diamonds, because I have to lose a round of hearts, and then he'll just "cash" the DA.

 

Anyway I'll win the HK then run the S9. Suppose I lose only the one spade - I pull the other trump, cross to the S7, ruff the DQ high, duck a round of hearts then try for the squeeze, something like

 

-

Ax

-

x

 

3

x

-

J

 

play the S3 and West holding - QJ - Q is squeezed. This also allows me to pick up a doubleton ♣Q in either hand.

 

Edit: this doesn't work if West has all 3 spades :/ unlikely though

 

ahydra

[Phil]

Maybe I can squeeze West in the rounded suits?

 

What do you think West's shape is?

[the_clown]

Draw Trumps, (assumind 2/1) eliminate ♦,AK of ♥, ♣AKx to force ruff and a sluff. I will give W 6-4 for this bidding, so most probably he is 1642.

[dkham]

My plan is to rely on West having short clubs to avoid a club loser:

 

1) Draw trumps, ruff diamond and cash both top hearts. Not sure what order to do these three things in.

2) Then play ♣AK. Maybe West will drop the queen. If not play another club and East might win and give us a ruff and discard.

[ahydra]

What do you think West's shape is?

 

Well, can't he have

 

K QJxx AK108x Qxx

 

A long shot, admittedly, but I'm not currently seeing another way to make this. If he's 5-6 then you'd have to go for an endplay (ruff/discard) I guess. The basic idea would be after pulling trumps, cash ♥AK ♣AK and exit with the 3rd heart, but that fails because West just plays another heart.

 

If we win the first round of hearts with the A, draw trump as before, cash ♣AK cross to ♥K then make the cunning play of the ♦Q discarding a heart from dummy. West can take another heart but is then stuck. We make the same play if West wins the 2nd round of spades and plays the DA, later exiting with the 3rd round of hearts. Beautiful - but we lose four tricks (DK, DA, heart, spade)! :(

 

I must be missing something if the squeeze (or blindly hoping for doubleton ♣Q) is not the answer to this. Edit: I see a bunch of cross-posts suggesting East is the unlucky candidate for the ruff/discard. I just like squeezes a bit too much, I guess.

 

ahydra

[Phil]

Well, can't he have

 

K QJxx AK108x Qxx

 

That is possible, but wouldn't West opt for a TOx then? Also, note West shifted to a low heart, so that implies even weaker hearts than QJxx, which gives less weight to the chance West is 1=4=5=3.

[inquiry]

Some strange things have happened here on the auction and one strange thing on the play so far. They have 10 diamonds, and yet south didn't raise preemptively over the double. North did a lot of bidding opposite a passing partner. North will have longer diamonds than hearts. North will also need at least one spade if we are going to make.

 

So north will be something like 1-4-5-3, 1-5-6-1, 1-5-7-0, 1-4-7-1, 2-4-5-2, 2-4-6-1, 3-4-5-1, 3-4-6-0. We can eliminate north as 1-4-5-3 against any opponent intermediate or higher, because if they were going to bid again over 1♠ with that, they would have doubled (takeout) instead of bidding an anemic four card heart suit.

 

If south had five diamonds (north 1-4-5-3, 2-4-5-2, 3-4-5-1) it seems he would have raised diamonds over the double. So our chances for a club-heart squeeze or a heart endplay for forced club lead from north away from the queen are somewhat unlikely (or unnecessary as club queen would not be guarded), as it only matters when north is the unlikely 1-4-5-3. You maybe able to throw SOUTH in with a club after ruffing last diamond and cashing 2nd heart for an endplay resulting in a ruff and sluff on a forced minor suit return.

 

What was the strange play? North shifted to a low heart. So he does not have a high honor sequence ♥QJ9x(x) or ♥JT9X(X)... etc. So south for at least the queen or the jack of hearts (we will see which one when we play small from dummy). The heart six is also the smallest outstanding heart, which hints at the possibility that north has four only hearts (or five if they would lead 3/5th in this position). We also note the ♦2 play by south at trick one. Could this be count (five or three diamonds) or s/p (I have something in clubs behind the AK)? The lack of a club shift and the dangerous (in theory) heart from only one of the two top honors suggest it was not s/p but rather count.

 

Before we choose a line of play, we win the ♥KING in hand (assume south played heart, the queen would be more informative than the jack -- just in case north is tricky and played ♥6 with 0-6-7-0, cover with the heart seven), and play a spade up to dummy and if west plays a low spade, finesse. If north plays an honor, win the ace. Did south follow to the first spade? The spade play will eliminate some of the possible hands for north. For instance, if both follow to spades, north can not have three spades, so two of the possible distributions are gone. When you play a second spade, you will find out if north had one spade or two spades. Eliminating more hands.

 

Let's make a couple of assumptions here before we commit to one line or the other (we will unblock high spades in east). If south showed up with the ♥Q and ♠K we surely will have to play north for the ♣Q (SOUTH would have enough to raise diamonds for sure with ♠K, ♥Q, and ♣Q, AND north would not have enough to open without all three of these cards). If south shows up with the ♠K and ♥J, I would also assume north has to have the ♣Queen. If south shows up with ♠Q, and ♥Q it would be closer. It is at least possible south might also have the ♣Q, but that is not as certain. If south shows up with ♥J and ♠Q, or no ♠ honor, the location of the ♣Q is still a question.

 

So option one. If north has 3 spades, we are going to endplay south in the minors (lose a spade, ruff a diamond, cash 2nd heart play three rounds of clubs from the top.

 

So option two. North has any two spades, we play north to be 2-4-5-2 or 2-4-6-1 or 2-5-6-0, and go with the same club endplay on south with a club throwin.

 

So the problem hand is option three, where north has just one spade, what honor did south have? (I DON'T believe south can have ♠KQ and a heart honor so if north has only one spade, it is an honor and we throw south in on the next round of spades). If it was the spade king we surely play north for the club queen. WHAT DOES SOUTH return. IF a diamond, that will help us eliminate diamonds for potential endplays. If a heart, that gives us a good count on the hand (north surely 1-4-6-2 or 1-4-7-1, or against weak opponents, maybe 1-4-5-3) if a club we play low in our hand and win in dummy. Did north play the ♣queen?

 

Against normal players, the line would be to cross to hand, ruff last diamond, cash heart Ace, cash club AK, EXIT a club to south -- who is out of spades, out of hearts and must be give you a ruff and sluff. This has to work because north can not be 1-4-5-3. Against weaker opponents where north could be 1-4-5-3 hand, the play is harder. So you are in a guess position. Let's look at how you might try to make a decision on the line suggested in above replies to squeeze, endplay north, or the line I am favoring of endplaying south. On club back by south, win in dummy, spade to west, ruff diamond (high). WHAT did south discard when you played a spade to west. If NS are weak players where you think north could be 1-4-5-3 AND if the cards played to date suggest that north has to have the ♣queen (see above discussion), and if south threw a diamond on the ♠ to your hand (which he would not do with 2-2-3-6 or 2-2-4-5 assuming again weak players), you might change your mind and duck a heart going for a heart-club squeeze on north (they can not knock out both your ♥ and last ♣ entry when they win a heart).

[ahydra]

s/north/West/gi

s/south/East/gi

 

I like how even if West is 0-6-7-0, then the heart gets ruffed with a natural trump trick, and we're no worse off.

 

Also, I should add that just because West doesn't play an honour in hearts doesn't mean he doesn't have QJxx or similar. It'd be weird, but it might be a falsecard.

 

ahydra

[phil_20686]

Why cant i just duck this? win the second ruff a diamond play the spade ace and now play the heart ace, if RHO ruffs he must return a club. If he gives me a ruff and discard I am home, losing 1S 1H 1D? If he refuses to ruff I can now ruff a heart and endplay with the spade.

 

I should also cash a top club at somepoint, in case west is 2461 or something.

[inquiry]

 

I like how even if West is 0-6-7-0, then the heart gets ruffed with a natural trump trick, and we're no worse off.

 

 

what if east doesn't ruff? you still have 2 trump losers, but now you have a heart loser as well (you have to win your king if you didn't cover and east didn't ruff).... the seven should just be more or less automatic cover.... you really don't expect west played low from qjt96 of hearts.

[Fluffy]

 

duck the heart is the key to this hand, later we should assume LHO is not 2452 for his bidding, so cashing only 1 club and eliminating red suits will end up with whoever has 2 spades endplayed.

 

 

Nice hand btw

[frank0]

I provide my own solution, for those of you who being misled by W's bidding I'm sorry but that's not what I can control.

 

This is the actual distribution

 

[hv=pc=n&s=s98732hk53dq6cj43&w=sqhqt86dakt74cq72&n=sajt64ha742d9cak6&e=sk5hj9dj8532ct985]399|300[/hv]

 

After I won ♥K on second trick I drew trump E won the second trick and return a ♥ to break the entry in ♥ and ♥+♣ squeeze against W(too late to duck now).

 

I think the key is to duck second ♥(no ♥ ruff possible because E must win the trick), after that win whatever return, eliminate ♦, draw trumps. E has no ♥ left now, if E wins second round and return a ♦ then it's over. If E return a ♣, you guess who has ♣Q(put ♣J now if E has it, play small and squeeze W in the end if W has it). The vacant space argument favored E has ♣Q, but HCP argument favored W has ♣Q.

[Antrax]

I'm sorry, but why is E endplayed after you eliminate the red suits and throw him in with the second spade? He can lead a club, can't he?

[frank0]

I'm sorry, but why is E endplayed after you eliminate the red suits and throw him in with the second spade? He can lead a club, can't he?

In the actual distribution, he does not. That's based on assumption of E has ♣Q(put ♣J when E return ♣, which does not work in actual distribution). If W has ♣Q you go for squeeze(put small ♣ when E return a ♣).

[Antrax]

What squeeze? If I followed the discussion correctly, here's the situation when E is thrown in (I assume both E/W pitch diamonds while keeping transportation):

[hv=pc=n&s=s87cj43&w=da7cq72&n=st6cak6&e=d8ct985]399|300[/hv]

What is the menace for the squeeze? Or do you mean you don't eliminate hearts?

[Fluffy]

frank0 wants to reach this position:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=st86h7dca2&w=shj8da3cq4&n=s97ha4dcj3&e=shd985ct98]399|300[/hv]

 

East is out of hearts and cannot play anything but a club at wich point you guess to play low or raise and squeeze west. To do this you must duck the first heart to rectify the count and strip east out of hearts.

 

 

 

I want to reach this position:

[hv=pc=n&s=st864h6dcak3&w=shdc&n=s975ha4dcj62&e=shdc]399|300[/hv]

 

After ducking first heart and ruffing a diamond in dummy, cash ♠A

 

This position can be reduced as well into frank0´s position but I would go for west having more shape, I put ♣Q on East´s hands and then to assure I make the contract regardless of who has 2 spades, eliminate diamonds first, then cash exactly one club (this might have been done earlier if east switched to clubs after winning heart), and finally eliminate hearts.

 

East might ruff ♥A before hearts are completelly eliminated, but doesn´t mater, he is endplayed into playing a club from the queen or a ruff and discard, If he rejects to ruff, he will eventually get endplayed with a trump.

 

If its west who has 2 spades he has hearts left while we elimante the 4 hearts from dummy, and he is trown in with a spade, if he has 4 hearts and 6 diamonds he doesn´t have any clubs left and must play aruff and discard.

 

 

Anyway the key to the hand is to duck the first heart.

[gnasher]

I must be missing something obvious.

 

Fluffy, you seem to be going down when LHO has K Q10xx AKJxxx Qx. How does your line gain over:

- Win the heart in dummy

- Two rounds of spades

- Win the return

- Take ♥K, diamond ruff, ♣AK

- Exit with a club.