simple 6S

[kgr]

MP's[hv=pc=s&n=sj86ha3da7cakqj42&s=sak952h982dqjt3c5&d=s&v=b&b=13&a=2s(Muiderberg)p4n(RKC)p5h(2%20of%205%2C%20no%20SQ)p6sppp]266|200[/hv]

LHO leads ♥6 (3th/5th): ♥6A52

and you play ♠6 from dummy: ♠63A4

How do you continue?

 

If you play ♣ now then it goes:

♣59AT (reverse count)

 

[keledor]

I play the K♠ and if the Queen drops doubleton I play the Jack ♠. Id suit breaks 4-1 I'm down 2. If 3-2 with Q10x then I have only one loser.

 

Assuming it doesnt I play the Clubs next discarding ♥. If the Clubs break 5-1 with the hand with a singleton ♣ holding the Q♠ down 1 any other break and the losing ♥/♦ are going on the Clubs and we have a loser on loser play on Q ♣ when which ever hand ruff withs the Q ♠.

 

No doubt the wrong line :)

[Cyberyeti]

At the table I'm sure I just bang down ♠AK then start cashing clubs.

[Hanoi5]

I don't see any other play than ♠AK. If I wanted a safety play in spades I should have played clubs before spades.

[mikl_plkcc]

(2 tricks)

cash the ♠K (3 tricks)

if the ♠Q goes down, bang down the ♠10 by playing the ♠J (4 tricks)

then cash the ♣ (10 tricks)

play the ♦A and eat the remaining (13 tricks taken)

 

if the ♠Q does not go down, start cashing the ♣ and discard the ♥. After they use the ♠Q to ruff, if they lead a ♦, eat the ♦A immediately. However, if they lead a ♥, ruff it by south. The contract is set only when the ♠Q can be used before all ♥ of south are used up.

[kgr]

RHO had singleton ♣T and ♠Q73.

The contract only makes if you run ♣ after only playing ♠A.

[Cyberyeti]

RHO had singleton ♣T and ♠Q73.

The contract only makes if you run ♣ after only playing ♠A.

Is that situation more likely than singleton club and xxx trumps the other side and also you're giving up some of the chance of 13 where clubs are 4-2 and Q♠ drops, and also what are you going to do if he ruffs the 2nd club with the 10.

 

It may be successful, but is it best ?

[kgr]

Is that situation more likely than singleton club and xxx trumps the other side and also you're giving up some of the chance of 13 where clubs are 4-2 and Q♠ drops, and also what are you going to do if he ruffs the 2nd club with the 10.

 

It may be successful, but is it best ?

I analyzed this in Jack, after starting with ♥A, ♠ to A and ♣ to A:

Expected score for playing:

- ♣K: 766.8

- ♠8: 533.8

It is not clear for me where the difference is coming from.

If ♠are 4-1 then West can go wrong by ruffing the 2nd Club low.

Or if West has 4c♠ and 2c♣ he can go wrong by ruffing the 2nd Club.

But I don't think this is a good explanation of the result of the analysis.

....Probably this is another failure of the DD analysis:

If West has ♠QTxx then you are down if you start with ♠AK.

Therefor Jack prefers to start with ♣ because he knows DD that he will go down when starting with ♠AK and that he can make against that distribution when he does not start with ♠AK (can make if he finesses later in ♠).

But when he has to play on spades later he will not finesse anyway and still go down.