A five level decision!

[jules101]

MP pairs

 

[hv=pc=n&w=s963hqt93d2cakt72&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=5ddp5spp]133|200[/hv]

 

Your call!

[Fluffy]

partner preempted and they guessed, nothing to say.

[jdeegan]

:P We are vul vs nvul. You are probably going to beat 5♠, so a double is not at all insane, but esp. at IMP's it has relatively little to gain assuming partner is something like nine ♦ missing the ace. If we are playing catch up, then I would double to protect our 'equity' on the theory that partner may have been stepping out a bit because of the state of the match.

[jules101]

I should have said this was MP pairs (I keep forgetting to do that) - now corrected.

 

 

For those who are passing could they explain what they think partner has got in her hand to open 5D vulnerable 1st seat?

 

You look like you have 2 cashing tricks, possibly more.

 

Will partner have none for her 5D vulnerable 1st seat opener?

[Fluffy]

2 tricks? why?

 

5♦ opening looks like ♦AKQJ109xx and out, or ♦KQJ109xxxx

[billw55]

You look like you have 2 cashing tricks, possibly more.

 

Will partner have none for her 5D vulnerable 1st seat opener?

Yes, fairly often. He either has the ace or he doesn't. He might have a king on the side, and might not. The best chance for the setting trick might be a club ruff, but he may not find the lead.

[dkham]

I think we were making 5♦.

They probably won't make 5♠ and could be sacrificing a lot, so I'll double.

Too scared to bid 6♦.

[Phil]

partner preempted and they guessed wrongly.

 

FYP (my last this week, I swear)

 

I don't know if we were making 5♦ because I'm not entirely sure what a r/w 5♦ call looks like. KQJ-9th of diamonds and 3-1-0 maybe?

 

Either way, the more shapely partner is the shorter his clubs and hearts are. -2 looks a lot more likely than making so I double.

[cherdano]

Cashing tricks? Club ruff on the third round of clubs? My opponents typically have shape when the pull a takeout double at the 5-level.

Of course, if partner's style is to have a 1-level opening bid for a r/w preempt, it's right to double, but if he could have shape with KQJ-9th of diamonds, I see no reason why are expected to beat this.

[phil_20686]

FYP (my last this week, I swear)

 

I don't know if we were making 5♦ because I'm not entirely sure what a r/w 5♦ call looks like. KQJ-9th of diamonds and 3-1-0 maybe?

 

Either way, the more shapely partner is the shorter his clubs and hearts are. -2 looks a lot more likely than making so I double.

 

Yes this, I mean a lot of the time even when partner has nothing I miight score two clubs and a heart. Partner can easilyhave the diamond ace + something else. This could be 500 from nowhere. Also, if you dont double much here then you let them interfere for free. You want them to be afraid of the red card, even if that means you sometimes concede 5Mx=. I mean overtricks just seem impossible.

[quiddity]

... a double is not at all insane, but esp. at IMP's it has relatively little to gain...

 

I think double has more to gain at IMPS. At matchpoints:

If both 5-level contracts are down then we're already beating the tables playing 5♦.

If 5♦ is making then we're probably not beating 5♠-X enough to make up for it; so we're already losing to those tables.

If 5♠ is making then double probably costs the entire board (especially if 5♦-X was going for 500).

[Statto]

I think double has more to gain at IMPS. At matchpoints:

If both 5-level contracts are down then we're already beating the tables playing 5♦.

If 5♦ is making then we're probably not beating 5♠-X enough to make up for it; so we're already losing to those tables.

If 5♠ is making then double probably costs the entire board (especially if 5♦-X was going for 500).

This makes sense if we think a fair number of other tables will be playing in 5♦, or for that matter 4♠. But if we think the majority will have the same auction, then it mostly comes down to beating those, and I think we probably will defeat 5♠, so in that case double is best. One thing I'm not doing is bidding 6♦, as it's certain to be doubled and go 1 or 2 off, and if only 1 off then probably 5♠ was down anyway.

[han]

It's hard to say how often you will beat 5S. My estimate is that you won't beat it often enough for double to pay off, but of course it also depends on your 5D openings.

[quiddity]

This makes sense if we think a fair number of other tables will be playing in 5♦, or for that matter 4♠. But if we think the majority will have the same auction, then it mostly comes down to beating those, and I think we probably will defeat 5♠, so in that case double is best. One thing I'm not doing is bidding 6♦, as it's certain to be doubled and go 1 or 2 off, and if only 1 off then probably 5♠ was down anyway.

 

Do you really think the majority of tables will have the same auction? It's possible of course, but all three bids are probably judgment calls. Some people will not open 5♦, some will not double, some will not pull. YMMV but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Statto]

Do you really think the majority of tables will have the same auction?

IDK, it depends on partner, opponents, the field, and the cards in the other hands. At the local club, I doubt it. But at a higher powered event, maybe.

[whereagles]

Pass. If this goes down it will probably be a good MP score. If it makes it might not be a zero. But it will certainly be a zero if you dbl and it makes.

 

Different at imps. There you stand to gain a lot more with dbl.

[AyunuS]

I would easily double. You've got pretty decent stuff on both of the suits that are not the trump suit or what your partner has covered, so they'll probably have no good help suit at all. They are gambling and might crash really hard. If a lot of other players preempt and don't double you'll beat all of them, when people could be stuck guessing what to bid on a lot of other tables, too.

[Phil]

I'm curious what a likely layout is where 5♠ is making, especially since some believe that making is happening often enough not to x.

[gwnn]

I'm curious what a likely layout is where 5♠ is making, especially since some believe that making is happening often enough not to x.

um.. singleton club in declarer's hand?

 

(I don't actually have an opinion whether double is right - it depends on your partner and your opponents too).

[Fluffy]

I'm curious what a likely layout is where 5♠ is making, especially since some believe that making is happening often enough not to x.

 

Dummy 4414 with their side having ♠AK ♥AK ♦A and ♣QJ seems good enough if declarer has doubleton honnor in clubs

[dkham]

I like to know how the story ended, what actually happened at the table here?

[jules101]

West passed and 5♠-3 by North (they can get out for -2 if they don't lose finesse the second spade to opener) scored 2 / 14 match points.

 

Double would have improved the score a little (+500), but 5♦ makes (+600), and most were making 5♦+1 (+620) on a non spade lead.

 

One lucky East scored a coast-to-coast top for 5♦X+1.

 

The actual hands are below, but I was more interested in the principle here of whether West should be applying a red card.

 

Forum advice seems mixed, but leaning narrowly towards DOUBLE!

 

There is another debate to be had about whether South's action over 5♦ was sound. Half the Souths in a strong game found pass, a third found 5♥ which was always doubled by West, and a minority found double!

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sk52haj8762dq3cq4&w=s963hqt93d2cakt72&n=sat874hk54dcj9865&e=sqjhdakjt987654c3&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=5ddp5sppp]399|300[/hv]

[daveharty]

There is another debate to be had about whether South's action over 5♦ was sound.

I doubt there would be much debate about it, but I could be wrong. To me it looks nuts.

[ArtK78]

I doubt there would be much debate about it, but I could be wrong. To me it looks nuts.

 

+1

[jules101]

I doubt there would be much debate about it, but I could be wrong. To me it looks nuts.

 

Yup - but it did buy them most of the match points on the board, so they'll believe their action was sound.

 

Can't argue with success I suppose even tho I would like to.