Five-level decision, hearts vs spades

[dave_w]

After discussing this hand for a while last night (I'd thought not much everyone thought it was an auto double - tap them out at trick 1) here's a few random thoughts that I think haven't been covered by anyone else (but they might not be relevant).

1) The tap is only good if it's the long trump hand - if declarer is 5413 then this 4♠ is making - maybe with an overtrick.

 

2) Our offensive/defensive potential is a lot different depending on partner fragment/side suit. If partner is a 0742 or a 0724 will make a lot of difference (we could easily make 6♥ opposite the 0742 but that's not really possible opposite the 0724). Similarly, on defense our QJT of diamonds is a trick if partner is 0724 but not 0742. This is also relevant opposite 08(32).

 

3) What on earth do the opponents have? How can the 1♠ bidder be worth 4♠ now? If he has a 5/5 then why didn't he Michael's? If he has a 5(431) then where are all the HCPs coming from that he thinks 4♠ is a good idea. His shape could be 5044 (double is a big winner), 54(31) - double looks like a big loser here. 53(14) doesn't seem so likely but even so he's looking good - he's picked his partner's shortage. 51(34) - double is a big winner again, but if does seem like an overbid on an 8 card fit with only half the HCP.

 

4) A problem with defending with JTxxx/T9xxx or showing this as a stopper for 3NT is that partner has no wastage in the opponent's suit. There will be a lot of total tricks on a hand like this and slam is a possiblity when this is your holding in the trump suit. Compare with QJxx or KQxx where there will be very few total tricks (People who believe in the Law of Total Trumps will have difficulty understanding this, but there's more to determining the number of tricks on a hand than counting the trump fits).

 

5) Has no one brought up that pass can be right? Even though pass will never be right on the actual hand (either 4♠ is making and we should bid or it's going down and we should double), if we don't know which of those two is happening pass can still be the winning (percentage) action!!

 

Also, I don't think that the actual hand (posted above) matters. Sure, some action will have been right. And those who chose that action can go away and congratulate themselves on what good bridge players they are, and how they'd have made the right bid _this_time_. But, it's the argument which matters. I won't ever hold this hand on this bridge deal, but I wonder what we can learn and what things we should be thinking about.

 

I thought the doublers were right. It was automatic. Now I'm not so sure.

[gnasher]

I think responder handicapped his side by passing over 1♠. He had a spade stop, seven useful-looking points, and no interest in defending 1♠x, so why didn't he bid 1NT?

[whereagles]

RHO was under pressure when he bid 4S. He's not expecting it to make it 100% of the time and I think this is one of those times where it goes down.

 

Dbl, on grounds that it may go down a lot on a bad day.

[CSGibson]

Double. I have a surprise in trump, a tap suit, some outside values, and favorable vulnerability. If that isn't enough, I'll shrug my shoulders and let it go. I mean, one of the reasons partner bid 4!H may have been to push them to a pressure 4♠ with really bad splits, I'm going to try and reward partner's bid.