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Just a guess?


gnasher

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East appears to be 51(34). I would win the spade and duck a diamond to establish communication. Assuming a spade back, I'll win it, ruff a diamond, run the heart J, HA, and ruff a diamond back to hand to draw the last trump. [Aside: To avoid a trump promo, I won't ruff a spade back to hand until I'm forced to or until I've drawn trump.]

 

Eventually my plan is to double hook in clubs to pick up either the 9 or the Q with west, assuming i haven't lost any spades or hearts yet.

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We have a lot of options. To me, the most flexible early play is to win the spade and lead a diamond.

 

It is far from clear how we will continue, since so much depends on what the opps do. I expect that we can discover the spade lie shortly. However, the opps are going to be able to see, early on, that they can falsecard with virtual impunity in many layouts...LHO might well be able to hide his lowest spade, assuming he has 4.

 

It is also possible that if RHO wins the first diamond with the K (altho he can usually afford to play the A from AK, most opps won't work that out in tempo), we can lead the Q from dummy, forcing a cover and possibly creating a position against LHO in the minors.

 

Anyway, those thoughts are for later in the play (altho they form part of the rationale for adopting the early play on diamonds).

 

As to how I'll play the hearts....let me know how the next few tricks unfold, and I'll be closer to an answer.

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I would also win and play a diamond, if rho flies the diamond K I will certainly run the diamond Q on the second round, trying to force a cover and hoping to either ruff down the diamond T or take the diamond ruffing finesse against the ten depending on how the play goes. Similarly if a diamond goes to the J and A/K with LHO. However, if rho flies ace I will not as I would be worried about rho protecting the stiff K. Nevertheless, much depends on how the early play goes.

 

I also play to run the heart J, LHO will normally remove with a stiff heart. I think the spades are most likely 4-4 in which case lho is very likely to have Qxx hearts to pass. Easts card may give you important information. Particularly if he plays the spade 3 with a meaningful look at partner in which case I will not try finessing the club J!

 

Another line that is not without merit is to start with a low club towards the ten. However, you might lose out when lho has some 3334 hand and would return a club away from the Q9xx after winning a diamond honour. Although that makes RHO's action very aggressive.

 

A third line that occurs is to play AKx spades and ruff a spade, if the spades are 4-4 I can exit with the diamond J, and this could give RHO a real problem - if I have the heart Q (and no club T) giving away a ruff and discard is a nightmare, if he does I can still ruff in hand and then run the heart J. I am in danger when west has three spades though. This does needlessly endanger the contract when it was cold by force though.

 

The more I think about it the more I think the second line is probably best. Surely west would lead from a doubleton on this auction, so the danger seems muted in the club suit. I expect west is 4333, though 4243 is certainly possible. Either way, a low club to the ten combines good legitamte chances with delaying the heart decision. I mean if LHO turns up with four spades a club honour and a diamond honour there is surely no way he has the heart Q as well.

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:P Yuk! I'm going to play the ace, then the king, hoping to get a read in the suit. With no additional info, I guess a third pitching a is right. Given a chance I'm going to finesse LHO for the queen of trumps and hope to win my by brute force.
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....

A third line that occurs is to play AKx spades and ruff a spade, ... ( then ) exit with the diamond J, and this could give RHO a real problem .....

.......

This is the line I was thinking of.

I'm expecting RHO to hold BOTH A & K ... ( and the A ) .

 

East wins first .

If he leads a , you get a free finesse.

If he leads a LOW , you get to pitch a from hand... and then lead the 9 for a ruffing finesse for the 10.

If he leads the high , your Q becomes high, and again you have the ruffing finesse to establish a 2nd discard.

If he leads a , your K becomes a winner and you can resort to establishing a for a discard as above.

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This is the line I was thinking of.

I'm expecting RHO to hold BOTH A & K ... ( and the A ) .

 

East wins first .

...If he leads the high , your Q becomes high, and again you have the ruffing finesse to establish a 2nd discard.

 

How are you planning to get to dummy to take a ruffing finesse, and then get back to dummy again to cash the long one?

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