Too many 2NT contracts are going down

[32519]

The Vugraph Project has some interesting stats on 130000 bridge boards.

 

Quote:

Too many 2NT contracts are going down. The opening bid of 2NT followed by three passes is doing very poor, only 40% of these contract are made. You might consider making the 2NT opening stronger. 2NT contracts are often down.

 

The results of 2NT contracts

...........................................% made..% down

2NT opening bid......................40.24...59.76

2NT bid not opened with 2NT....56.88...43.12

 

Almost 60% are going down after a 2NT opening bid!

Does anyone have any thoughts why so many 2NTs are being passed out and then going down e.g. no Garbage Stayman in the partnership agreement?

 

Do we make the 2NT bid stronger as suggested?

If 2NT is already doing poorly, what do we gain from Mexican 2♦ with 18-19 HCP?

[awm]

Garbage stayman has nothing to do with it, and won't really help. The fact is that it's hard to make contracts when you have a balanced hand and there are no entries to partner's hand (usually the case when partner passes 2NT). But the point of opening 2NT is more that it helps you reach game when it's right (and play it from the right side) not that 2NT is some great contract in itself.

 

You're looking at the wrong stats here -- the question is of the times that you open 2NT, how often do you go down in 2NT? Keep in mind that very few 2NT openings end up playing there; most of the time you are going to play in game somewhere.

[EricK]

Garbage stayman has nothing to do with it, and won't really help. The fact is that it's hard to make contracts when you have a balanced hand and there are no entries to partner's hand (usually the case when partner passes 2NT). But the point of opening 2NT is more that it helps you reach game when it's right (and play it from the right side) not that 2NT is some great contract in itself.

 

You're looking at the wrong stats here -- the question is of the times that you open 2NT, how often do you go down in 2NT? Keep in mind that very few 2NT openings end up playing there; most of the time you are going to play in game somewhere.

You also need to look at how hands which would fall in your lower end for 2NT do when opened something else. And possibly how every other opening does when the possibility that it might include a hand which was previously at the lower end of 2NT is added to the mix.

[wank]

32519, one day you'll start a non-ridiculous thread

[32519]

I didn't compile the stats. Just thought they made interesting reading. This is the Conclusion at the bottom of the page.

 

Conclusions

• The most obscure contract is 5NT

• The odds to end up in one club are 5 in 10000, so don't be afraid to open one club with short clubs

• At the two level spades is the most played contract

• At the three level spades is the most played suit, but the difference is not as big as at the two level

• The most played contract is three no trump followed by four spades, four hearts and one no trump

• When you end up in one heart or one spade you have more 70% chance to make it, probably due to strong hands that open one in a major

• You are most likely to have missed a manche when you end up in two notrumps or two in a major

• Too many two notrump contracts were going down. The opening bid of 2NT followed by three passes is doing very poor, only 40% of these contract are made, you might consider making the 2NT opening stronger. 2NT contracts are often down.

• Three hearts and three spades are also often going down probably due to preempts, competition and invites that were too high

• Three notrump contracts are often made, because if you belong in four or five NT you stay in three

• Four hearts is made more often than four spades, because four spades can be a save against four hearts

• At the six level we see that too little minor suit slems are bid, it should have been around 2% higher,I guess those were played in 3NT

• 85% of the 7NT contracts are made

• The average number of tricks made is 9.1

• In 42% of the deals you will score 9 or 10 tricks

• 13 tricks are more likely than 5 or less!

[daveharty]

Was this an analysis of hands that were actually played, or a simulation? Did it include auctions? (I am wondering how we know that the auction was 2NT-p-p-p on the hands in question.) Maybe it means that people should be doubling in the balancing seat on any excuse. Maybe it means that people should be competing more aggressively against 2NT openers, since 2NT-1 might not be a bad result when dummy hits with a yarborough. Maybe it means I just woke up so this actually seems like an interesting subject.

 

Oh, and 35219: you've quoted yourself in your sig. I'm not sure but I think that's a violation of the Temporal Prime Directive.

[Statto]

2NT is a crap contract.

 

Benji Acol is supposedly flawed because of the 2NT opener being 19-20. But most good Benji players recognize that flaw and use 2NT as 20-21, 2♣..2NT as 22-23, and have more range defining NT bids for even stronger hands. Precision players have also rejected 1♣-1♦-2NT as showing 19-21 balanced because too often you play in 2NT going down with a 19-count when you could have had a plus score.

[32519]

Another reason for 2NT going down = treating big 4441 hands as balanced. Should the opponents find your singleton with the opening lead, you’re in trouble. The expert forum has some suggestions on how to deal with these.

[mgoetze]

32519, one day you'll start a non-ridiculous thread

I just wonder when people will catch on and stop replying.

[Vampyr]

Too many 2NT contracts are going down. The opening bid of 2NT followed by three passes is doing very poor, only 40% of these contract are made.

 

Don't you know that "traditionally" the third pass is actually a double?

[gwnn]

And oil prices are going up, obesity is bigger than ever, education is in ruins :(

[G_R__E_G]

32519, one day you'll start a non-ridiculous thread

 

I'll take that action and even give you 5 to 1.

[han]

It seems to me that an easy solution is available.

 

• 85% of the 7NT contracts are made

[RMB1]

... good Benji players ...

!

[Vampyr]

!

 

Come on, Robin, there are some!

[billw55]

Confucious say, 2NT is a convention, not a contract.

[DrMunk]

It seems to me that an easy solution is available.

;)

I was thinking similar to you, but thought that it should be the 3nt contracts that could solve this "problem".

[Finch]

You also need to look at how hands which would fall in your lower end for 2NT do when opened something else. And possibly how every other opening does when the possibility that it might include a hand which was previously at the lower end of 2NT is added to the mix.

 

Suppose you discovered that 100% of the time the auction went 2NT all pass the contract went off.

That doesn't actually prove anything at all about whether you should make a 2NT opening stronger, or change your responding methods, or both. You can only evaluate in the context of the full system.

 

The vast majority of the time I open 3S and it ends the auction it goes off (much more than 60%). I have no intention of opening 3S less often.

[kenrexford]

Notably, to me, 12+ tricks were taken on about one out of every 9 deals.

[aguahombre]

Suppose you discovered that 100% of the time the auction went 2NT all pass the contract went off.

That doesn't actually prove anything at all about whether you should make a 2NT opening stronger, or change your responding methods, or both.

For instance, perhaps you merely need to tell partner 2NT is a weak bid with both minors :rolleyes: .

[PrecisionL]

I have reached a similar conclusion about 20-21 2NT openings.

 

I teach local players that opening 2NT is 21-22 hcp to avoid the bad 2NT contracts.

[Siegmund]

Too many 2NT contracts are going down. The opening bid of 2NT followed by three passes is doing very poor, only 40% of these contract are made. You might consider making the 2NT opening stronger. 2NT contracts are often down.

 

That doesn't necessarily mean anything is wrong with the system.

 

There is no such thing as a hand type that is very likely to take exactly 8 tricks. The only time you ever play in 2NT is when you attempted to get to 3NT, failed, and are in serious danger of already being too high.

 

With ~24 combined HCP and two semibalanced hands, you'll get 7 or fewer tricks about 30% of the time, 8 tricks about 40% of the time, and 9 tricks about 30% of the time. With 25 HCP, you would be making 3NT often enough that you should bid it. By the time you are down to 22 combined HCP, the chance of making even 8 tricks drops off fast.

 

Indeed, I would say that if 2NT made more than about 40% of the time, it would be a sign of serious underbidding; the best of the hands you are stopping in 2NT are almost surely good enough to attempt 3NT.

 

On the other hand, if you were making only 20 or 30% of the time, it might be a sign you were getting too high too often.

[jdeegan]

:P I think you make an illuminating point about the so-called HCP range of the 2NT opener. One could argue that the well-known 40-60% loss on 19+ to 21 HCP 2NT openers that go all pass is more than compensated for by supposed gains on the remaining hands where it doesn't go all pass.

 

My personal take on this is a little different. The data quoted are imo. based on hand evaluations done mostly by weak players. Counting high card points is only the start or first step in hand evaluation. Some 19 HCP hands need to be opened for 2NT like this brute:

AK10x

Q109

AQ98

Ax

 

Some 20 HCP hands should be opened for a one bid, like this pussycat:

KJxx

Kxx

AQxx

AK

 

Personally, I am not a great fan of the 2NT opener (except when playing rubber bridge for money and I hold it). Minor suit slams can be hard to bid. I guess the easiest way to cater to the advancing players is to up the HCP range by a point.

[benlessard]

The vast majority of the time I open 3S and it ends the auction it goes off (much more than 60%). I have no intention of opening 3S less often.

 

Bad argument IMO When i have a good 19-21 pts I have great expectation to go plus, while when i have a weak 3s my expectation to go plus are so so.

 

What I think is a valid alternative is just 2Nt 21-22 and 1m--1??--2NT is 18-20. IMO the 3pts range is annoying and also playing 1m rather than 2NT is sometimes painful. But comparing the 2 methods shouldnt be that hard.

[han]

I think the arguments brought forth by Frances are exactly right. Drawing these conclusions from this data is very foolish.