Opening lead problem

[DaveMikeH]

This hand came up the other night. I was complaining to a friend about my partner's and my defense on this hand, and he commented that he wouldn't have considered the lead I made. I was curious what the consensus lead would be (I'll post the whole hand and misdefense later)

 

[hv=pc=n&s=s92hk983dk93ca873&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=1sp2cp2hp3d(G.F.)p3hp3nppp]133|200[/hv]

 

Cross-IMPs 2C SAYC.

[ArtK78]

The only suit I would absolutely NOT lead is clubs.

 

Given that it is IMPs, I would usually choose an aggressive lead, such as a low heart or low diamond. But I think the right lead here is the ♠9. Partner is marked with something in spades, probably 4 or more in length.

 

Second choice - low heart.

[billw55]

Art already said it.

 

East obviously has clubs, and based on his apparent lack of major suit cards he likely holds diamonds as well. Ops evidently have no fit, so to me passive defense sounds ok. I want to avoid giving one away on lead and a club or diamond is very likely to do so.

 

So I think must choose a major. East might have taken a preference to 3♠ with a doubleton, particulary honor doubleton, and so he almost surely holds ♠xx or less. Hence the ♠9 can hardly give away a trick. Whereas a low heart is much more likely to, for example if declarer holds stiff Q or J.

[wyman]

I don't think a low heart is an option at all. All I need is AJxxx opp Qx, and now I've allowed opps to establish 4 tricks in hearts by using 1 dummy entry.

 

My choices would be the ♦3 and the ♠9. But again, I think I want to make declarer do some work to establish the spades, at least to use a tempo, so I'm leading the low diamond. I'm never leading a club. Ever.

[mikeh]

LHO is 5-5 majors, and RHO is at most 2-2 majors.

 

While wilder shapes are possible, the odds are that rho is either 4=5 or 3=6 minors.

 

Our heart spots are such that it is improbable that we can promote any tricks in that suit.

 

Our club spots are just as bad, and in any event we should not be leading the suit that rates to be their trick source.

 

So that leaves the pointed suits.

 

The spade lead is the one that seems least likely to cost on the go. Of course, we could find, say, AKxxx opposite Q10, but on the whole the spade lead looks safest, and I would choose it in a heartbeat at mps.

 

The diamond lead is risky not merely because it may be a real suit held by opener. Even if diamonds are us, so to speak, it seems unlikely that partner has establishable diamonds and an entry.

 

But for me the reason I choose diamonds over spades is that we would like to beat the contract and I think that we have an extra chance by leading a diamond: we may sever the communications between the two hands while we still have the club A.

 

Ideally, we play some form of smith so that I can tell partner, early on, that I am not crazy about diamonds as a suit (which will depend on trick one, obviously....if his 10 holds the first trick, I will love the lead :D )

[r_prah]

I agree with Wyman and Mike that a diamond lead is our best chance to beat this contract. RHO's shape needs to be something like 2-2-3-6 to give us a chance (and be consistent with the auction). Partner holding Axxxx of diamonds is our best shot. In that case, if I lead a low diamond, partner may not know to duck the lead. I therefore lead the ♦K, intending to continue with the ♦9 (partner should hopefully figure out that he should duck this).

[Phil]

I like a diamond lead.

 

Our club spots should be ringing bells in our head that this is a very dangerous suit and we need to attack the entries pronto.

 

My 2nd choice is actually a heart. It seems we need very little from partner - ♥QTx to beat the hand.

[Codo]

Playing 2/4. I lead the 9 of ♦.- Ugly to read for partner, but you cannot have it all.

[rmnka447]

Opener is marked for being at least 5-5. Responder didn't support either so has no more than 4 cards in the majors.

 

The auction shows no known suit fit, but the 2 D (4th suit forcing to game?) shows values.

 

It all leads me to a D lead -- the 3.

[bftboy]

Sounds to me like we want a ♦ switch to come from P, so ♠ 9 for me. If P's ♦ are good (QJxxx), he may not have an entry to them. If they are not so good, say J10xxx, he may have a ♠ entry to them. Anyway I'm leading the ♠.

[ahydra]

I think I'll have to go for the small diamond. Partner doesn't have much, so I doubt a spade will provide the setting trick.

 

ahydra

[655321]

I would just lead a low diamond.

[wank]

i'd lead the king of diamonds - partner's not got much so expecting too many leads through declarer is a little optimistic. lho can easily be 5512 and we pin a stiff honour.

[billw55]

I think I'll have to go for the small diamond. Partner doesn't have much, so I doubt a spade will provide the setting trick.

 

ahydra

I was not so much thinking of providing the setting trick in spades. Rather, of avoiding giving away the fulfilling trick in diamonds.

 

Still, Phil's point about the club spots and declarer's entries is persuasive. Wank's idea to lead the king is an interesting extension of this theme .. could make the newspaper for a Merrimac coup on opening lead.