Another hand reading

[bluecalm]

Random BBO opps. it seems they are advanced from hands played so far.

They are pick-up partnership and all they agreed is "sayc".

It's imps:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sj972hkqj43d52cj7&n=sakthatdk9743cqt6&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=ppp1np2ddpp2sp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

My pass denied 3♥.

First trick:

 

3♣, 7♣, 8♣, T♣

A♠, 4♠, 2♠, 6♠

 

I now run 5 hearts.

W discarded: 2,6,9 of hearts and T,8 of diamonds (in that order)

E discarded: 5,7,8 of hearts and 8,J of diamonds (in that order)

 

So... throw in or spade finesse ?

[MrAce]

Random BBO opps. it seems they are advanced from hands played so far.

They are pick-up partnership and all they agreed is "sayc".

It's imps:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sj972hkqj43d52cj7&n=sakthatdk9743cqt6&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=ppp1np2ddpp2sp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

My pass denied 3♥.

First trick:

 

3♣, 7♣, 8♣, T♣

A♠, 4♠, 2♠, 6♠

 

I now run 5 hearts.

W discarded: 2,6,9 of hearts and T,8 of diamonds (in that order)

E discarded: 5,7,8 of hearts and 8,J of diamonds (in that order)

 

So... throw in or spade finesse ?

 

So there were more than one ♦8 in the deck ?

[y66]

Finesse.

 

West might have pitched a club if he'd started with 4 of them. So, play East for 5 clubs.

[bluecalm]

So there were more than one ♦8 in the deck ?

 

I made a typo. E had J6 of diamonds.

 

Finesse.

 

West might have pitched a club if he'd started with 4 of them. So, play East for 5 clubs.

 

if E has 5 clubs throw in is 100% line. The problem is, he might have 6.

[flytoox]

East starts with five or six clubs. He has two diamonds, three hearts, and two or three spades. West dbled 2D with only four diamonds. If he has 3343 will he dbl 2D? I think more likely he has 4342.

 

So I finesse.

[MrAce]

Ok i dunno where did my reply go, i replied after my first post and it doesnt exist.

 

I would finesse, just like other posters and you stated Bluecalm that he may have led from AKxxxx. And in fact his pd not discarding any ♣ makes it stronger that ♣ are 6-2.

 

From xxx ♣ he would probably discard a ♣, he kept his only remaining ♣ and weakened his ♦ suit down to AQ doubleton and he didnt touch ♠. So i would finesse.

[bluecalm]

and you stated Bluecalm that he may have led from AKxxxx

 

I stated that but I didn't realize it at the time. They agreed "sayc". I thought everybody playing "sayc" leads 4th best.

I believed in the lead and played for clubs 5-3 watching LHO cashing his 5 club tricks :(

I have no idea if she tricked me with that lead or if she just lead "normal 3/5".

Anyway I find your arguments very convincing and I think I made mistake trusting 1st lead while other inferences were available.

[rmnka447]

Several key pieces of information exist. The 1st is East's lead directing double. The second is the lead of the C 3. The third is the play of East's C 8 to the first trick.

The Diamond discards and Heart follow suit also give some information.

 

Assuming Standard leads and signals -- the C 3 pretty much marks West with at least 5 Clubs. If West held only 4 Cs, even AKx3, a good player would likely honor the request for a D lead by East. The C 8 from East can't be the top of a doubleton if the C 3 is an honest 4th best lead. It can only be from 3 to an honor. It might be from 8x or from K8 doubleton if East has made a deceptive lead.

 

The Diamond and Heart cards played tell you West started with 3 Hs and 2 Ds, East with 3 Hs and 4 D AQJ8. So West's hand is 5 Cs, a known 3 Hs, 2 Ds and therefore 3 S. The discard of the 2nd D by west is also significant -- it confirms 5+ Cs in the West hand. For if only 4 C were held, West would have 4 Ss along with 3 Hs and 2 Ds. In which case, West could pitch a Spade and retain the 2nd D to get to partner.

 

Finally, East Diamond discards and especially the D J is significant. East holds 4 Ds, 3 Hs and 2 or 3 Cs and either 4 Ss (when holding 2 Cs) or 3 S (when holding 3 Cs). Wouldn't East discard a Spade from xxx, xxxx or even Qxxx rather than discard the important D J when South is known to hold the D K.

 

So the evidence strongly suggests East holds Qxx of Spades. So finesse. Even if it loses, you might still have a chance if East started with C K8.

[BunnyGo]

if E has 5 clubs throw in is 100% line. The problem is, he might have 6.

 

I don't understand this. Won't you lose the ♦A and 4 clubs in this case?

 

I think the spade finesse is the way to go for several reasons. Not least of which the above question.

[Flameous]

I don't quite get what I'm missing, but even if clubs are 5-3, I seem to be losing 4 club tricks and ♦A, no?

 

lol, now I actually get it. There's no diamond entry anymore. But in theory club honors could still split.

[bluecalm]

I don't understand this. Won't you lose the ♦A and 4 clubs in this case?

 

No, because the lead is clearly from AKxxx and if E started with Qxx xxx Jx AKxxx I am home by playing a club now but if she started with: xx xxx xx AKxxxx I need to finesse a spade.

 

I hope, besides other things, to gain information on how often American "expert" playing on BBO leads 3/5th vs NT agreeing "sayc". I would really love to know if she just led her usual 3/5 or if she planned to trick me with 3♣ lead.