iceland - semifinals of 40

[Trinidad]

I am changing my mind. I find Zel's argument pretty convincing. East does not need to bid 3♥ now. He expects to get another chance to show his hand if he passes.

 

So, it depends on the EW agreements whether East passes. If EW have an agreement about the difference between a direct 3♥ and a slow 3♥ (or 4♥), we follow that agreement. If EW don't have an agreement, I would say that East would tend to bid his hearts immediately. In that case, I would assign a weighted AS, based for 60% on a 3♥ bid and for 40% on a pass.

 

Rik

[bluejak]

As you will realise I have taken a poll. At the time of writing, 37.5% passed. I think this is evidence that a weighted score involving opener passing may be very reasonable, but a ruling assuming he passes 100% of the time is not.

[lamford]

I agree with adjusting to 3♣x by South.

I think the analysis of the play in 3Cx is excellent but it looks like a case of "Sentence first - verdict afterwards". If East would Pass 3Cx you would be right, but East knows South has diamonds, and partner is 5-7, balancedish (is that a word?) with whatever hand pattern he was dealt. Pass must surely be a suggestion to defend, even by my limited knowledge of Precision. A simulation had an average penalty of +317 and an average score when declarer is in the best contract of +592, even at love all. So, the statement by East that he would pass seems to be influenced by the West hand. As Dburn once said, "I would not pass on the East hand even if I had seen the hand record, as, if I did, people would know I had seen the hand record."

 

So the AC did an excellent job, and the TD decision was hopeless, in my opinion.

[Trinidad]

Did you read Zel's analysis about why East could/would pass (post #20) with the correct information?

 

Rik

[Vampyr]

wrong login

[lamford]

Did you read Zel's analysis about why East could/would pass (post #20) with the correct information?

 

Rik

Yes, but I did not agree with it. The other worry is that South might have misbid (or even psyched) with 3C, intending it as weak, when he will pass and we will get no redress. Pass must surely suggest defending (now or later) and therefore suggests a more balanced hand.