the safest slam?

[inquiry]

[hv=d=n&v=a&n=s853hkj2daq732ck7&w=s6hq8654dt5ca9653&e=sj972ht7dj86cjt82&s=sakqt4ha93dk94cq4]399|300|Scoring: IMP

West North East South

 

- 1NT Pass 2♣

Pass 2♦ Pass 2♠

Pass 3♦ Pass 3♥

Pass 3♠ Pass 4♣

Pass 5♣ Pass 6♦

Pass Pass Pass

[/hv]

 

CJ C4 CA CK

C5 C7 C2 CQ

DK D5 D2 D6

D4 DT DA D8

DQ DJ D9 H6

 

Here is an interesting hand from the Fourth stanza of the olympaid quarterfinals. I was commenting on this board in the other room (6♠), where when the hand was over, I made the observation that this would be a flat board or small plus for hungary, although I couldn't imagine that 6D would be bid in the open room...as you can see above it was.

 

The question came up, what contract was superior? 6♦, 6♠ or 6NT. As you can see, all three easily make. A four one split in diamonds, can be overcome in spades, by ruffing a diamond. A four one spade split with jack onside or singleton can be overcome in spades, but 4-1 offside, can be overcome in diamonds (if diamonds split). But 6NT has chances as long as one of the pointed suit splits... becasue you ahve the heart hook and/or squeeze in hearts and the point suit in reserve. Tis an interesting question of which is the safest slam.

 

Ben

[jikl]

I'll vote for 6NT B)

 

Sean

[Free]

6♠, you can easily handle 4-1 split if J is in front, and you can even ruff ♦s in case they're 4-1. 6NT is dangerous, since you only have 1 ♣ stopper.

[Flame]

I feel 6♠ is best but should calculate it to be sure.

[luke warm]

not sure which is best, but i'm pretty sure we'd get to 6nt since responder would know about both kings and the A, Q of ♦ in opener's hand... he'd view spades and diamonds as a source of tricks and probably think that if worse came to worse, a squeeze might exist for the 12th trick

[the hog]

6N allows you to handle a 5-0 break in either pointed suit provided the other one breaks. Clearly the best slam.

[inquiry]

4-1 ♦ (or 5-0) will beat 6♦, so I think we can all agree that 6♦ is inferior to the other contracts (32% chance of 4-1 or 5-0)...

 

4-1 ♠ will defeat you as long as, 1) the jack is not singleton, and the four spades are behind the AKQTx... (13% chance of defeat including 5-0 split)

 

5-0 splits in either pointed suit will likely beat either suited slam...btw, so a 5-0 diamond split probably will set 6♠.

 

6♠ will make with 4-1 ♦ and even 4-1 ♠ as long as the spade are in front of the long spades. But what about 6Nt? In this case, 6NT needs 5♠. 3♦, 1♣, and if the heart hooik is on (or if you play for a squeeze), 3♥...

 

Only 6NT gives you a chance if spades are 4-1 or 5-0 off side. Only 6NT gives you a real chance if diamonds are 5-0. So, while it is close, I think I am with Ron, thinking I want to be in 6NT.

 

Ben

[Flame]

What are the odds for 5-0 split ?

and why 6sp is down on 5-0 diamond ?

[inquiry]

What are the odds for 5-0 split ?

and why 6sp is down on 5-0 diamond ?

♦ ruff and ♣ ACE

 

Odds of 5-0 split is 3.9, and you have two suits in which that can occur....

 

also, odds of ♠4-1 offside or 5-0 is 13.3%, with no chance of to recover... plus the small bit of roughly 3.9% for 5-0 diamnods, this is 16% no chance...

 

So here is the problem, is 4-1 diamonds, and normal spades so no heart hook needed better chance than 4-1 spades offside needing the heart hook? The answer to this is probably yes, as 4-1 or 5-0 spades is only 13.3%, half of that you can get it back... for 6.7% don't make. Yet in 6NT, when spades can be picked up, you need the heart hook anytime diamonds are 4-1 (either way), 28% of 4-1 split, so the heart hook saves you only 14% of the time. So the odds do seem better for 6♠, if you ignore any squeeze or guard squeeze chances. At matchpoint, I surely want to be in 6NT.. at imps, well... it is is close, but like I said in the event, 6♦ seems unlikley.....

 

Ben