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Big pre-empt


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[hv=pc=n&s=saj843haqt63d432c&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=5cpp]133|200[/hv]

We are red

1. What is your bid?

2. Estimate the balance between risk and reward in bidding.

2. Estimate the probability that NS have a game on.

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What can you do but double?

 

Sure, partner will usually sit....probably 90% of the time, or even more, given your club void. Sure, they may make this, and even have a trick in the bank. And on a bad day, rho sends it back.

 

But: most of the time they will fail, and sometimes by 2 tricks.

 

I'm not particularly worried about protecting our equity in game, since I assume that if 5 is normal, my teammates, at imps, and the field, at mps, will protect us most of the time. But if partner has a freak, and wasn't able to bid directly, then I will be happy to hear him make a bid. That is a slight upside to doubling, but I double primarily because I want to turn 100 into 200, 200 into 500...at the risk of turning -600 into -750.

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Easy double.

If p passes we will have a good chance to beat it, I have 1,5-2 tricks and partner is also a favourite to hold a trick.

If p runs we will probably play in a reasonable fit, and the major suit finesses will be onside, and we wont go for a very bid number even if p is broke. Ofc we may go for 500, while 5 is down one. But as soon as 1 of the contracts makes bidding will be right.

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Double expecting a push at teams regardless of what happens next unless West is gambling or something funny happens at the other table.

 

As mikeh points out you lose very little at -750 vs -600 with a much larger upside.

 

At mp's I still double because partner will understand and I hate to be pushed around.

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NAE: I think I have to double here, 5/5 majors makes it plausible we will arrive at a playable spot, and void clubs makes it hugely more likely that pard wants me to reopen with a double. Then again they are first in at red. Playing against myself, clear double. Playing against a 'I always have my bid pard' pair I might pass, but eh, double.
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