What is your bid

[the hog]

This is a hand which is causing a bit of discussion on rgb. I am curious about what posters here think.

 

Matchpoints:

Partner opens 1H

 

You hold:

 

QJXXX XX QX KXXX

 

1H 1S

2C

 

Now?

Would your decision be any different at IMPs?

[Nabooba]

I would bid 2♥ at MPs and pass at Imps. I will not be that pleased if 3♥ comes back to me, but that is life.

[JLOGIC]

Typically with 8 points and this shape, you preference as you might then get to a game if partner bid again with 16, 17, or a bad 18. Here, your honors are pretty hopeless, and I would reject any game try including:

 

2S: The game try partner needs the least HCP for, as he would jump shift lighter with a partial spade fit and 3514, or maybe bid 3S now. Having 15 or even a great 14 is common here so we just don't have the wood.

 

2N: either partner has 5422 and diamonds are an issue, or 5431 in which case our spade honors are dubious and Qx of diamonds is still a problem. Even with about 25 points, I would not bid game.

 

3C: Partner needs less HCP here, and he is 5-5 so our diamonds and spades honors are probably useless. Yes we have a ruffing value but 11 tricks in clubs are a long way off.

 

3H: Again, partner needs less HCP as he has more shape, and when he's 6-4 our spade and diamond honors are dubious, and our ruffing value is probably worthless.

 

3S: This is a rare bid since 2S shows extras and partner could have jumpshifted, but I would certainly bid 4S over it happily.

 

Because of this, I think passing is clear at imps since you won't bid game (though I would bid over 2N at imps just because, lol). On the other hand, 2C rates to be a much safer partial than 2H.

 

At MP we have the upside that if partner does bid spades next, we are definitely in the right partial (since spades will score higher). On the other hand, partner is very unlikely to have 3 spades since that would give them 10 diamonds. In fact, we might survive pasisng, since they might balance with 2D.

 

If partner bids 2N it is likely 2N will be better than 2C but not a lock. It might even be right to bid 3C.

 

If partner bids 3H, this will be better than 2C as long as we make it. Making it is likely, but again not a lock.

 

Converting to 2H will also work when 2H and 2C both make on the nose, or when 2H makes 3 and 2C makes only 3. It might work better for shutting the opps out i they can make 3D.

 

All in all I would pass at MP since I think a large part of the time 2C will just make some number, and 2H will be down. I also think when 2H makes, 2C will often make an overtrick anyways. I would consider passing a "weird" action though and would certainly expect 2H to be a majority expert choice. That being said, I think people preference back much too woodenly in these spots, there is a lot to be said for having about half the deck or a little more and playing an actual fit and going plus. Nothing about this hand screams "go for the biggest plus" to me. Our hand is pretty bad, partner is usually around min, we don't have Hx of hearts which makes playing hearts a lot harder, we don't have entries, etc etc. Just going plus on these kind of hands and getting the "safest" plus is often enough to win the board. People always say protect the plus at MP, and it is good advice imo when your hand is *****.

 

What people don't realize about hands like this is even if partners range is 11-18- (yes, let's be honest, with 5 hearts and 4 clubs and 11 points most people open), partner is MUCH more likely to be dealt the lower end of the range than the higher end, even with the opps not bidding. It is not like he is equally likely to have 13 as he is to have 16, he is probably at least twice as likely to have 13, not to mention all the other numbers. Similar to how playing 15-17 I think when you have 8 partner is twice as likely to have 15 as 17, which is why passing with flat 8s works well. If you add in upgraded 14s, it really changes the frequencies a lot, as you are dealt 14 much more than 17, so even only "good 14s" become more likely.

 

Same with things like partner having 3 spades, yes he might, but he is extremely more likely to have 1534 than 3514 when I have 5224.

[the hog]

Comprehensive answer and some convincing points here. I must admit my first thought would have been 2H; now I am not so sure.

[ArtK78]

Two points:

 

Justin, I believe you misspoke (misposted?) in one line when you stated that "Converting to 2H will also work when ... 2H makes 3 and 2C makes only 3." I believe that you meant that 2C makes only 4.

 

Later, in the same sentence, you make the point that the 2♥ call could keep the opps out of the auction in their (presumed) diamond fit. But earlier, you stated that "we might survive passing [2♣], since they might balance with 2D." It seems that these two ideas are contradictory - either we want them to balance or we don't.

 

All in all, you have touched all of the bases on this one. Your conclusion that it is better to pass 2♣ rather than take the false preference to 2♥ sounds like the conclusion of a man firmly rooted in IMP play rather than matchpoint play. Not that I dispute your conclusion. It is a very close call, and I would bet that it is likely to be right or wrong an equal number of times.

 

Funny thing is, back in the early days of my playing this game I came across the idea of making a false preference on hands like these at matchpoints. It was a counter-intuitive notion (and counter to my rubber bridge upbringing) that it might be better to play in our weaker fit as major suits outscore minor suits. Your suggestion to pass 2♣, therefore, is counter-counter-intuitive.

[nigel_k]

Minor suit partscores are underrated at matchpoints. I would always pass at matchpoints and totally agree with Justin's reasons. At IMPs I actually think it's closer because you don't want to miss a game but I would still pass probably.

[wank]

People always say protect the plus at MP, and it is good advice imo when your hand is *****.

 

 

Do 5 stars indicate a 5 letter word? The only suitable 5-letter adjective I can think of to fit the gap is mainly British-only.

[hrothgar]

Do 5 stars indicate a 5 letter word? The only suitable 5-letter adjective I can think of to fit the gap is mainly British-only.

 

everyone knows "shite"

[Free]

I don't like the hand at all, so I'd pass and play in my sure 4-4 fit, hopefully making. In fact, I think we stand a much better chance to make 2♣ than 2♥. In imps it's a very clear pass imo, in MP you could discuss a lot but in the end making 2♣+1 is still the same as 2♥= if you get that far, and 2♣= is much better than 2♥-1...

 

In my partnership, partner with 3-5-1-4 would've raised, and partner with 16+ would gazzilli, so I'm quite confident I won't be missing much when I pass.

[kenrexford]

Blah Blah Blah

 

 

 

I miss the good old days when I could see a question that called for a "WTF -- Pass?" and see "WTF -- Pass?" actually typed by you.

[CSGibson]

I'll give a false preference only when I am secretly hoping partner can bid again & we can reach game. Here, once partner doesn't jump shift I think my hand will never be worth a game bid, so I'm passing & trying to go plus.

[dake50]

Can 2C be 17-19 that feared to GF jump?

Or some big 2-suiter just wanting a fit?

I wish 2C was at most a 15, now pass.

If 2C might be strong, 3C but hoping

I haven't overheated this auction with

only a CK known to be useful.

[bluecalm]

Doesn't standard bidding works that way that if partner bid 2C now he won't force to game after our 2H ? As we reject invites anyway (we could have 10 here and this is shitty 8) argument about games is very weak one imo.

The question at MP's is how often 140 makes and imo not too often so I pass.

 

Those problems in standard are very difficult.

Both 2H and 3C are very wide ranged here which makes bidding a guessing game to some extent as the ranges in practice are always 2hcp wider than you want them to be.

That said, it's inconceivable to me that we play a partscore on 26hcp without even trying for game. In my country people playsing 11-21 openers limit 2C to 17hcp so it's 11-17. If your style is to bid that even with 18's then I don't pass.

[gszes]

QJXXX XX QX KXXX

 

1H 1S

2C

 

its not just 8 points its where they are

that matters the most.

 

this isnt the worst possible 8 but it is close.

Even if p has a 64 hand the hearts are likely

to be of poor quality since p would prefer to

advertise hearts rather than (ugh) clubs

(especially at MP). There is also no reason

p cannot be 55 or 56 and clubs would be a

vastly superior place to play. I vote for

pass

here because your hand really doenst look

much better than xxxxx xx xx Kxxx making game

a lonnnnnnng shot at best.

 

change your hand to say

xxxxx QJ Qx Kxxx and I would bid 3c

 

and with xxxxx KQ xx Kxxx I would bid 4c

[MrAce]

I miss the good old days when I could see a question that called for a "WTF -- Pass?" and see "WTF -- Pass?" actually typed by you.

 

 

Well.... Justin posts "Wtf--Pass" and gets trolled for short response, he writes a long very educative post, almost an article, he still gets trolled. He writes somethng that people like and gets upvote, he is trolled....He says something different than he actually did in a real life matche he gets trolled...he cant even comfortably make a comment anymore thinking that can be a trap question...i guess this must be the price u pay for being famous and still hanging out with mortals.... but..whatever...

[cherdano]

I would pass. I am glad to hear that the majority of experts would bid 2h, this means we can win some MPs here!

[the hog]

Well.... Justin posts "Wtf--Pass" and gets trolled for short response, he writes a long very educative post, almost an article, he still gets trolled. He writes somethng that people like and gets upvote, he is trolled....He says something different than he actually did in a real life matche he gets trolled...he cant even comfortably make a comment anymore thinking that can be a trap question...i guess this must be the price u pay for being famous and still hanging out with mortals.... but..whatever...

 

As I said, my initial reaction when I saw this was to bid 2H. Having read Justin's post I find myself agreeing with the logic, so what can I say. I thought it was an excellent and well thought out answer.

 

Fwiw if you bid 2H, partner will bid 3H.

[JLOGIC]

Well.... Justin posts "Wtf--Pass" and gets trolled for short response, he writes a long very educative post, almost an article, he still gets trolled. He writes somethng that people like and gets upvote, he is trolled....He says something different than he actually did in a real life matche he gets trolled...he cant even comfortably make a comment anymore thinking that can be a trap question...i guess this must be the price u pay for being famous and still hanging out with mortals.... but..whatever...

 

Haha Timo, Ken was not trolling me, he was making a joke and I thought it was funny. FWIW Ken and I used to battle more than just about anyone on the forums (ken and mikeh were also up there!), but I think we appreciate each other now and would say we are at least friendly. The funny thing about Ken and I is we would have epic fights when we agreed on our answer :P

 

Anyways, I chose to write a long reply since I thought pass was non standard and I don't think it's that obvious...I would have written obv pass if that's what I thought...there's a lot to think about at MP!

[MrAce]

 

Anyways, I chose to write a long reply since I thought pass was non standard and I don't think it's that obvious...I would have written obv pass if that's what I thought...there's a lot to think about at MP!

 

I found it very helpful and i really suck at mp. For example before i read this i wld auto bid 2♥. There are a lot of good points u made there and i dunno others but i am convinced.

 

Otoh, about Ken, it wasnt really directed at Ken. I was trying to tell him that whatever u do, seems like there is always at least one who expects different than what/how u said it. Of course i dunno the history...

[P_Marlowe]

Pass.

 

I can understand 2H, espesially if 2C could be short, e.g. if you never open

1NT with a 5 card major, and if you play 2D in this seq. as showing 4 cards.

 

The major scores better, but you need to make the contract, and if we have

a 4-4 fit in clubs, we may make +1 anyway.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[Poky]

If you do not play Gazzilli, pass is obvious.

If you miss a game, you have a problem with the system, not with the rebid.

[flytoox]

Nice analyses by Justin. I guess I will pass, but definitely not so deep thinking.

[nige1]

This is a hand which is causing a bit of discussion on rgb. I am curious about what posters here think. Matchpoints:QJXXX XX QX KXXX

1H 1S

2C ??

IMO 2♥ = 10, Pass = 5,. We are all entitled to our own opinions :)

[ahydra]

Simulation time, surely. There must be an answer to the perpetual "omg it's matchpoints, don't play minors" thing.

 

But until I know, I'll just go with 2H at MPs and pass at IMPs, bidding 3C after opps no doubt compete.

 

ahydra

[jdeegan]

Simulation time, surely. There must be an answer to the perpetual "omg it's matchpoints, don't play minors" thing.

 

But until I know, I'll just go with 2H at MPs and pass at IMPs, bidding 3C after opps no doubt compete.

 

ahydra

:P Imo you don't need any simulations since one of the best players in the world has taken the time to weigh in on this matter, and he says to pass. I can add some additional reasoning, however. Your hand is sooooo.. soft that it will nearly always be worth at least one more trick in clubs than in hearts and game looks remote. Pass loses when you have a game or when you make nine tricks in a major and ten in clubs. Otherwise, Pass wins. If they actually come in with 2♦, you are in good shape as well. If pard doubles, you can sit. If it comes back to you, you can bid 2♠. My guess is that Pass is about an 80-20 winner.