Lead against 3NT I

[Finch]

IMPs, 32-board KO match, love all, partner deals.

 

[hv=pc=n&w=st9642ha72d97cq84&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=2d(multi)dpp2hppdp3dp3hp3nppp]133|200[/hv]

 

2D = 6-card weak two in a major, about 5-9 HCP

dbl = about 12-15 balanced or very strong

your pass over the double = asks partner to bid his major

RHO's pass over 2H = not the strong option

dbl of 2H = take-out

 

Well?

[Codo]

On a bad day, I would gift declarer his ninth trick with a low heart. On a good day, this lead will set up our long suit before they can run nine tricks after a passive defence. Today is a good day.

[Fluffy]

I go for low heart as well

[luckyloser]

if p has an entry, it may be better not to lead a h since this could give dec his 9th trick. if we can hit partner´s entry we may well run the h-suit. or dec may have only 8 tricks. however dec may have 9 minor suit tricks but is unlikely to run 9 tricks with s and only one minor suit. so i lead a top ♠. if this is his entry, fine; if not dec may not have 9 tricks.

[gnasher]

I'd lead a low heart. The best chance must be to find partner with ♥QJ and our side to have a winner somewhere.

 

I can't see how you can hope for a passive defence to work - we have a 6-count opposite a weak two, so if we give them enough time they'll have plenty of tricks.

[bigbenvic]

I suspect that the Ace is going to be right, just because it's been posed as a Qusetion in the forum! However I think at the table I'll be leading a small heart.

[mikeh]

I'd lead a low heart as well.

 

If we go passive and/or find partner's entry, declarer is going to be able to block the heart suit most of the time.....certainly if he has as much as Kxx...he'll maybe have to guess, but if our partner has QJ10xxx in hearts and an entry, it won't take much imagination for declarer to work out why we didn't lead hearts and how unlikely it is that partner has what must look suspiciously like an opener.

 

I think there is an upside to the low heart not yet discussed...picture declarer with Q10x and partner with KJxxxx. He wins the K and returns a low one....which he (or given that this is posted by our forum's bridge goddess, she) would be quite capable of doing this from AKxxxx.

[ArtK78]

I lead a low heart.

 

There are many reasons for leading a low heart, which have already been mentioned. The main reason is to establish our suit while we have one trick somewhere which declarer must concede to us.

 

Every so often the lead of a low heart will give up a trick - sometimes the ninth trick. My experience is that the gains from leading a low heart exceed the losses.

[jallerton]

We know from partner's opening bid that the opponents have 25-29HCP between them and none of their suits seem to be breaking badly, so going passive is unlikely to beat the contract: we probably need to be able to take several heart tricks.

 

Not leading a heart seems to be playing for a very particular layout, something like ♥Kx opposite ♥xx when a heart lead would give declarer his ninth trick. A far more likely is that we just knock out declarer's heart stop and hope partner gets in before declarer has 9 tricks.

 

So is it to be a low heart or the ace?

 

A low heart might gain when declarer has a 3-card holding with two honours in hand opposite a low singleton in dummy. It might be worth asking the opponents about their methods, but if that's the layout, LHO might have done something other than a take-out double (e.g. bid a new suit or cue bid to show a 3-suiter) and/or RHO might have bid 2NT (if available as natural) over the double.

 

♥A will gain when dummy has a singleton K or Q and declarer has ♥Kxx or Qxx in hand (on a low heart lead, declarer knows to block the suit on the next round).

 

If the opposing hearts are 2-2 then there is no theoretical difference between a low heart and the ace (unless we need to keep communications to defend against a strip squeeze ending, which is probably a bit of an obscure consideration). However, if declarer's heart holding is Qx opposite Jx in dummy, might partner not be tempted to put in the ♥8 at trick 1 if we lead ♥2? If he does, is that our fault or his?

 

I'm leading the ace of hearts.

[Fluffy]

Jeffrey I think you missed the biggest point for low heart; declarer holding ♥Kxx and being unable to shut down comunications. If partner has some combined stopper with us like ♣Jx it could be vital.

[gnasher]

Jeffrey I think you missed the biggest point for low heart; declarer holding ♥Kxx and being unable to shut down comunications. If partner has some combined stopper with us like ♣Jx it could be vital.

It doesn't have to be a combined stopper - it might, for example, be that declarer has a chioice of suits to play on, but if we have no heart communication he's 100% by finessing clubs into our hand.

[Finch]

Jeffrey and I are possibly biased by knowing the hand, but I have also been persuaded into the ace of hearts lead.

 

I think it's uncontroversial that we are most likely to beat the contract by leading a heart given that we have a balanced 6-count.

It's also not hard to list the pros and cons:

 

- a low heart gains when declarer has precisely Kxx and can otherwise ensure he loses the lead to your hand

- the ace of hearts gains when declarer has singleton honour opposite Hxx

 

the problem is that it's harder to define the other gains & losses

 

- if opposing hearts are 2-2 then it should be neutral what you lead, but the ace will definitely make things much clearer for your partnership

- if declarer has KQx or KJx then the ace costs a trick, but it is unclear how likely it is to cost the contract

 

There's obviously not a simple answer. If I had a side ace, rather than a side queen, I would be much more inclined to lead a low heart.

 

As it happens the layout at the table is slightly unexpected. If you lead the ace of hearts you take the first six tricks. If you lead a low heart declarer takes the first 11 tricks. Their heart stop is J9x in dummy and singleton K in hand and (if you ask) they will point out that after the 2D opening this layout is very likely to be a stop when played with the singleton K.

[gnasher]

- the ace of hearts gains when declarer has singleton honour opposite Hxx

and has to lose the lead to partner

[Fluffy]

there are opponents who think stiff king is a stopper, and some who don´t, knowing them is important :).

 

Heart ace covers perhaps more cases, but ♥Kxx in RHO´s hand is more likelly than any other single case IMO, maybe not more than all together though.

[jallerton]

Jeffrey I think you missed the biggest point for low heart; declarer holding ♥Kxx and being unable to shut down comunications. If partner has some combined stopper with us like ♣Jx it could be vital.

 

True, but clubs is the only suit where we have a potential stopper. The anti-ducking lead of a low heart has more attraction if we have more likelihood of gaining the lead. Here we are so weak that partner is more likely to be the one with the entry.

 

Also, as I hinted earlier, I don't consider a small singleton heart in dummy to be so likely given Dummy's bidding. Dummy could have clubs or spades in a forcing manner after 2♦-dbl-Pass, so the Dummy's Pass of 2♦x tends to suggest either a balanced hand or length in diamonds. With 4- or 5-card diamond support and a low singleton heart, would Dummy elect to play in 3NT?

[Fluffy]

I didn´t pay that much attention to bidding.

 

But one more point for you, I recall from spannish team championship this year a hand where opening leader had Axx and declarer Jxxx or J10xx, the palyer with KQ had to duck to defeat in order to keep comunications open, (not sure if 5 or 6 card suit but doesn´t matter), but ducking was much easier after an Ace lead.

 

Similar (althou much easier) is partner having KJ9xxx and declarer Q10x, here playing the jack should be found, but you never know.

[gnasher]

Also, as I hinted earlier, I don't consider a small singleton heart in dummy to be so likely given Dummy's bidding. Dummy could have clubs or spades in a forcing manner after 2♦-dbl-Pass, so the Dummy's Pass of 2♦x tends to suggest either a balanced hand or length in diamonds. With 4- or 5-card diamond support and a low singleton heart, would Dummy elect to play in 3NT?

I think it would be wrong for dummy to regard his diamonds as "support". Dummy is the one who implied length in diamonds; when declarer bid 3♦ he was bidding his partner's suit in response to a takeout double. 3♦ is certainly consistent with a 3343 shape.

[phil_20686]

Couple of points:

 

(1) From xxx in partners suit I would usually lead top, so when I lead the two partner will be basically 100% that I have an honour. If I had A98 I might be more worried about partner doing the wrong thing. Given your comments I presume that you lead low from xxx?

 

(2) I find the layout amazing - why did south not make a t/o double of 2H himself?

 

(3) If partners weak twos are disciplined, the chance of a stiff honour in dummy is pretty small. I mean, partner might have Kxxxxx I guess, but surely the should have at least QTxxxx in the heart suit. The more undisciplined your weak twos the more the ace appeals.

[Finch]

Couple of points:

 

(1) From xxx in partners suit I would usually lead top, so when I lead the two partner will be basically 100% that I have an honour. If I had A98 I might be more worried about partner doing the wrong thing. Given your comments I presume that you lead low from xxx?

 

(2) I find the layout amazing - why did south not make a t/o double of 2H himself?

 

(3) If partners weak twos are disciplined, the chance of a stiff honour in dummy is pretty small. I mean, partner might have Kxxxxx I guess, but surely the should have at least QTxxxx in the heart suit. The more undisciplined your weak twos the more the ace appeals.

 

(1) I don't know what agreements they had (it was opponents who had this lead problem), but we lead low from 3 cards in partner's suit if we haven't shown support (top if we have shown length).

(2) You could have asked more about the methods... the problem with the Dixon double defence is that if you double then double in principle that shows a strong hand. Usually a singleton heart would pass over 2D then double hearts next round, with singleton K declarer chose to show it as balanced.

[benlessard]

The 3H bid look more like asking a stopper than showing half a stopper. So i dont see why i should lead the A. Treating a stiff K like a full stopper when the danger suit is in LHO i can understand, but when its RHO well ... you really need to hope your opponents dont play count leads.

 

Also why didnt i bid 3H as pass or correct ? opps have 25 to 29 pts and a sure fit so preempting at the 3 level in a sure 9 card fit is nice no ?

[whereagles]

yup, small heart