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EV of psychology?


JLOGIC

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I was gonna create an entire hand and troll for the lulz but here is a scenario:

 

Board 2 of set 1 of the spingold. Opps have an auction to 4H. Dummy hits and they start yelling at each other about the meanings of bids. They had a misunderstanding about a bid. They take one finesse and it loses. They then take another finesse... You have Kx behind the AQ. Dummy has 2 small. You know this is the end of the hand, they have the rest. Do you win it or duck it. If you wanna cop out and say "it depends," on what factors does it depend?

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I have never thought of this situation. Maybe because usually opps only argue due being in ridiculous game or not being there.

Given an abstract situation like here, I sure as hell would do it. At least for the laughs. I consider good laughs easily worth more than 1IMP :D

But so early in the set, I can see psychological effects also making it worthwhile.

 

Just hope your partner won't start asking questions or laughing out loud. ;)

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Law 74B4 forbids "prolonging play unnecessarily ... for the purpose of disconcerting an opponent". Hence I think you're obliged to win it.

I think that the question was: Do you let them make 6 so they 'll feel bad and make more mistakes in the next boards?

..I wouldn't

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Oh I see, sorry. I thought it was "Do you duck so as to give them more time to argue while declarer's crossing back to dummy to take the finesse again?", but I've just reread the question.

 

I think I'd only do it if I was sure my opponents were the sort of people who're affected by a bad result. The fact that they're arguing doesn't mean that they're going to fall apart.

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Yes I duck. If I expect my teammates to bid the slam it doesn't even cost since 450+50 and 480+50 and 650/680 is the same 11/13 IMPs. If they don't bid the slam I've obviously tossed one IMP away. Hopefully partner is aware of this tactic and keeps a straight face because I don't want him to start the inquisition about, "hey who has that King??" And if he finds out I have it then not only do the opps get a psychological boost for missing a good slam that fails, but also because I am outed for semi-dumping.
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I would duck. If I had to risk conceding an overtrick to give declarer a chance to go down, I would do so; I see this as an analogous situation, albeit with an intangible gain. If they believe they are 13 IMPs down, they will think that momentum (thus far) is against them. And yes, they will likely continue to argue, which cannot be bad for us.

 

True, this is the spingold, and the opponents are supposed to be mentally tough; but I think 1 IMP is a small price to pay to give them the rope. I would do this even if they haven't been arguing about the bid.

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It depends.

 

If they are good enough, they will be angry the same amount even if the slam on ~75% fails. If this is the case and my teammates maybe will not be in slam, I win, potentially preserving 1 IMP.

 

Otherwise, I could duck it. This move should have a decent EV.

 

Did you duck it? B-)

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I'd probably duck.

 

I'm a form believer that you cannot fight the opponents and partner all at the same time.

 

Better, of course, if declarer has A Q J so that the finesse is repeatable. Nonetheless, mess with their heads.

 

(Speaking of misunderstandings, on Saturday I opened 2 and heard the opponents bid to 5; they got to play it there on a 2 - 0 trump fit, down 6, when cold for a club slam. You can bet that I'd mess with them on the next few hands if I could.)

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My experience is that partners that start yelling at each other continue to do so regardless of whether the table result ends up being good for them, so I'm not just going to throw away 2 or 3 imps the times teammates also stay out of slam.

 

How is it 2 or 3 imps? You are throwing away some fraction of 1 imp overall (the times that your teammates stay out of slam). Let's call it .4 imps. In return you gain the swing of making them think they will probably lose 13/11 instead of probably winning 13/11. I have no idea if it's worth it and I would probably say it depends on the opps and also on the exact hand (if it is like 33 HCP and a fit, then you're probably throwing away a very small amount since your teammates will almost always be in slam, so it would def be worth it).

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I would take it, I think that my partner would not understand if I duck and would ask about it. Then the opponents would realize what had happened, they would not only have avoided a doomed slam by sheer luck but they also made an extra trick by a stupidity of the opponents. I think their moods would improve while the moods of my partner and me would go down fast.
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I would take it, I think that my partner would not understand if I duck and would ask about it. Then the opponents would realize what had happened, they would not only have avoided a doomed slam by sheer luck but they also made an extra trick by a stupidity of the opponents. I think their moods would improve while the moods of my partner and me would go down fast.

 

lol you are the best

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Sorry, I'm retarded and decided overtricks get scored the same as undertricks.

 

How is it 2 or 3 imps? You are throwing away some fraction of 1 imp overall (the times that your teammates stay out of slam). Let's call it .4 imps. In return you gain the swing of making them think they will probably lose 13/11 instead of probably winning 13/11. I have no idea if it's worth it and I would probably say it depends on the opps and also on the exact hand (if it is like 33 HCP and a fit, then you're probably throwing away a very small amount since your teammates will almost always be in slam, so it would def be worth it).

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This is just the kind of thing I think about when I'm drunk for no reason, it is probably purely academic since it's so specific heh, I just get bored imo.

 

I sort of had something vaguely resembling this at the table. Quite a few years ago when I was more obviously a young(ish) random female bridge player, and less obviously the Bridge Goddess that everyone knows I am now* we were an unseeded team in a national KO playing one of the top teams. LHO dealt and the auction started (only us vulnerable)

 

P 3S P 4S

dbl P P ?

 

RHO's pass was very slow.

I redoubled 4S which I suspected at the time might have negative EV (it did; it converted +790 into +500). But I thought it was worth it because I wanted to show oppo that they couldn't take liberties; LHO was known for very aggressive protections and he needed to be told that he was 'only' risking a doubled game.

 

 

*{10 second pause}...now you can stop laughing

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