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lead problem


Tomi2

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do you overcall every 12/13 hcp with 5 hearts over 2 spades on 3rd level vulnerable?....

 

How often do you miss 4-4 heart fit on this auctions?

 

The 3 bidder didnt get any new info on the second round, in fact when he put his first pass he was the only hand at the table knowing an approximate strength of all the hands - which is close to 20-20 situation by looking at the bidding and 12 ugly HCP in his hand. Also no - imo partner doesnt have the right to raise 3 to 4, on 8 points, because 8-10 points are expected strength when you bid after the preempt. They would raise on 11-12 or very good fit and distribution.

Its not the point wether I would or would not overcall, the point is that this hand didnt get any new positive info from the bidding - surely balancing at the 3 level is expecting the point range that you have (assuming partner counts to 40 and sees the bidding), so what made him think that the hand got better? The Qx opposite partners potential AJxxxx?

So if I would bid with that hand I would do it the first round, but if I decided then that my 6 card suit is not good enough it didnt change this round as well, it only became easier to get doubled.

Yuhttp://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif

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consistent with the bidding, the only reason for p

to x 4h is they need a dia lead and dont want you

to lead a spade. It does not mean their x is perfect

it merely means in their opinion a dia lead will give

your side its best chance of setting 4h.

 

the odds of p being short in hearts AND void in dia

have to border on 0%.

 

It is much more likely they have AQ or AQJ of dia

and knowing hearts are splitting badly they are

trying to get you off to the best lead possible.

If P is x 4h with their WEAK 2 SPADE bid merely

because trumps are splitting badly, it is time to

find another partner because they are assuming you

are too stupid to find an x when trumps are splitting

badly.

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The relevant figure is not how often a diamond beats it, but how often a spade lets it through when a diamond would have beaten it, compared with how often a spade beats it when a diamond would have let it through.

 

If partner thought the latter was higher than the former, he would not have doubled, so I lead a diamond.

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