(Mind) hand reading

[bluecalm]

[hv=pc=n&s=skt6hkq94dq54cak5&n=saq82ht8dat32c843&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=p1np2cp2hp3n]266|200[/hv]

 

Matchpoints, average opps who play 2/4 leads, UDCA (which means 2nd from both Hxx and xxx) and lavinthal discards.

Play:

 

5♠, 8♠, J♠, K♠

T♠, 3♠, 2♠, 4♠

6♠, 9♠, Q♠, 7♠

A♠, 7♦, 5♣, 2♥

T♥, 3♥, 4♥, 5♥

8♥, A♥, 9♥, 7♥

J♣, A♣, 2♣, 3♣

K♥, 7♣, 2♦, 6♥

Q♥, 6♦, 4♣, J♥

 

And now the moment of truth has come. We have ♣K ♦Q54 in hand and ♣8 ♦AT3 in dummy and we need to guess diamonds.

I missed it and I wonder what kind of thought process should give me clues here.

[wyman]

Putting on my detective hat:

 

The lead: LHO led from a 3 card suit; certainly he does not have 5 clubs.

 

First discard: LHO the lavinthal ♥2, suggesting clubs. This could be the ♣Q but another implication is that he doesn't have ♦KJ, especially since he could spare a high heart spot.

RHO played the ♦7, which we now know was his lowest. This is ostensibly also a club signal, and it was played before LHO's ♥2.

 

Carding in the side suits: Both gave count in spades and hearts, so I have no reason to distrust their carding. LHO's ♣2 should probably be UD count after the ♥2, but (a) there's really no need at this point to card faithfully, and (b) it's not clear that he's not just giving positive attitude, which he might if the ♣J is a true card.

 

So far we have LHO = ♠953 ♥752 ♦6 ♣72 + 4 cards

 

Ok, so I'll trust the ♣J, and assume that LHO has the CQ. Also I think it's unlikely that he pitched the ♣7 and stiffed his Q. So my guess is that LHO has 2 diamonds and 2 clubs remaining. I can totally see something like 953/752/Jxx/Qxxx picking a spade here. It's less attractive to do that from Kxx. But the shape imo is more interesting. Since I think diamonds are 2-2, and I had reason to believe that LHO doesn't have KJ, I think we can't go wrong playing ace and a diamond. If they are 3-1, LHO must have 3, since otherwise he'd have started w 5 clubs. But again, since I don't think he has KJx (recall the ♥2), that would put a stiff honor with RHO, so I'll still play ace and a diamond.

 

Did I win?

[quiddity]

I don't think East started with 4 diamonds or three diamonds including the jack, else he might have pitched a club instead at trick 4. I also don't think he would have stiffed the king. I would lead the queen of diamonds (intending to duck if West covers and finesse on the next round) to pick up an original xx or Jx with East.

 

edit: Also, it might have been better psychologically to discard a club from dummy at trick 8 and see one more discard from West before pitching the long diamond.

[Yu18772]

I am not an expert, but that would be my thinking:

W started out with 3:3 in majors, thus with 4:3 in minors, meaning that E started with 2 or 3 diamonds.

E first discard was a ♦, which doesnt make sense if he held an Hxx after the ATxx, so I would play W for both honors - i.e run the Q, and finesse the T.

Yu http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif

[gszes]

if i started with

xxx

xxx

KJxx

xxx

 

I would lead a low dia vs spade

 

if i started with

xxx

xxx

Jxxx

xxx

 

I would avoid a dia and lead a spade

 

with

xxx

xxx

Kxxx

xxx

 

a diamond once again vs a spade.

 

IMO lho is close to broke and was trying to hit p with

spade lead. I find it impossible to believe lho has

whittled themselves down to 3 dia and began life with

Kxxx or KJxx dia. This means even if lho began life with

4 dia Jxxx is the most they had. Rho has the dia K

or lho has reduced to KJ dia stiff with an original

holding of xxx xxx KJx xxxx (with or w/o Q) so rho

has

 

 

any 2 dia

any 2 clu

 

K

xxx

 

KJx

x

 

even the hugely unlikely

J

xxx

 

I would lead a dia to the A and

a dia and be shocked if this

wasn't 100%

[bluecalm]

Did I win?

 

Yes.

 

I would lead a dia to the A and

a dia and be shocked if this

wasn't 100%

 

Yeah, I screw that up, I thought LHO started with 3-3-4-Qxx and didn't lead a diamond because of Jxxx. Opponent's hands:

 

953      J74

752      AJ63

96       KJ87

QT972   J6

 

Good to have this forum :)

[Yu18772]

well done gszes http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif

 

Yuhttp://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif

[wyman]

Yes.

 

I think the biggest thing for me was the ♥2. If this is really a club card, I can't see how low to the ace, low to the queen is wrong.

 

But I did not see lefty holding a five card club suit.

[bluecalm]

To be honest I didn't appreciate 2♥ as lavinthal during the hand. I thought they are just discarding cards they don't need :) Only later I realized it showed club values (it was Polish tourney and in Poland everybody play lavinthal discards vs NT).

 

So now it seems I should edit the topic of this thread to: "simple technical question" instead of hand reading ;)

[wyman]

Even then, I think I'd play low to the ace.

 

I am not playing LHO for 5 clubs, so either the diamonds are 2-2 or 3-1, stiff on the right. And I think LHO would have led a diamond from the K, so I'll cater to stiff K on the right.

 

This time I would have won for the wrong reasons :)