Strong, but under pressure

[bd71]

[hv=pc=n&n=skqhq84dk8cakj875&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=3s]133|200[/hv]

 

No relevant agreements or gadgets.

 

What is your call?

 

If you X, what do you bid over responses of 4D or 4H?

[wank]

[hv=pc=n&n=skqhq84dk8cakj875&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=3s]133|200[/hv]

 

 

What is your call?

 

If you X, what do you bid over responses of 4D or 4H?

 

3nt

 

pass 4♥

over 4♦ pass and hope to escape for a multiple of 50

[cloa513]

[hv=pc=n&n=skqhq84dk8cakj875&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=3s]133|200[/hv]

 

No relevant agreements or gadgets.

 

What is your call?

 

If you X, what do you bid over responses of 4D or 4H?

Its not that strong- 3NT- lack of aces.

[mich-b]

Seems like a routine 3NT.

[Fluffy]

I would bid 3NT but wonder how often this would make on a simulation, I suspect something between 45 and 65%

[whereagles]

Another easy 3NT :)

[Zelandakh]

3nt

 

pass 4♥

over 4♦ pass and hope to escape for a multiple of 50

I take it that you play natural responses over the 3NT overcall then? Does everyone else do that?

[phil_20686]

I take it that you play natural responses over the 3NT overcall then? Does everyone else do that?

What is your call?

 

If you X, what do you bid over responses of 4D or 4H?

3nt

 

pass 4♥

over 4♦ pass and hope to escape for a multiple of 50

 

 

I dont think he plays natural responses, and imagine he was just answering the OPs two questions.

 

Sign me up for 3N too.

[Zelandakh]

I dont think he plays natural responses, and imagine he was just answering the OPs two questions.

Ah, thanks for that Phil. I think I must have blocked out any mention of doubling when I read the OP!

[ArtK78]

Seems like a routine 3NT. The alternative of 4♣ does not appeal to me.

[mikeh]

This is everyone's 3N.

 

And everyone sees the flaws, but the alternatives are worse.

[pooltuna]

Hamman eggs in one basket

[HighLow21]

The problem with 3NT is that you have no hold-up power in spades. In theory, if you lose an early trick you could go down 4 and be doubled in the process. KQ is a poor stopper because you may be forced to win the first trick and the suit is now wide open on many layouts. KQx would be infinitely better. KQ is fine for a stopper NT unless you now for a fact that that suit will be led at trick 1.

 

Plus you are missing 3 aces. If partner is broke you will get doubled and be minus many--and it's not unlikely that partner has little. You have a bad 18 points, and the opener in theory has 5-10; this leaves only 12-17 points to divvy up between partner and LHO, and if partner doesn't have the majority of those points you are a definite underdog in 3NT.

 

The queen of clubs with partner would be wonderful, but if he doesn't have it you may be stuck immediately after trick 3. And even if he does you might not be able to take 9 tricks before they run spades. Many, many spades.

 

Give East something like: ♠xx ♥AJxx ♦QJxx ♣Qxx. This is not an unlikely holding on the auction. Now try to avoid a massive penalty in 3NT!

 

I'd bid 4♣ and be content to make it or go down a small amount if partner is broke. It's not likely to get doubled, and if partner has some values he might take you to 5♣. Yes, you might suffer a 2nd round spade ruff in a ♣ contract, but that's only one blown trick, not 5.

 

Keep in mind also that your bid might push them to 4♠ which might make. I don't like this hand one bit.

[HighLow21]

By the way, I agree with comments above that 3NT will make about half the time. The problem is that when it doesn't make, the opponents will be able to diagnose it far too often for my own comfort; they will double, and I will be anywhere from -500 to -1400 way too much of the time.

 

So at MP I might try 3NT, but at IMPs, the probability of failure combined with the expected cost of failure is too much for me. I'm gambling a telephone number in the hopes of picking up 400. Bad.

 

A related question: if you DO go 3NT and LHO doubles, passed back to you, what now? Bid 4♣? The problem with this logic is that it will be obvious that you're escaping and the opponents have exchanged too much information. They will be better positioned to bid 4♠ when that's right, double when that's right, etc.

[mikeh]

The problem with 3NT is that you have no hold-up power in spades. In theory, if you lose an early trick you could go down 4 and be doubled in the process. KQ is a poor stopper because you may be forced to win the first trick and the suit is now wide open on many layouts. KQx would be infinitely better. KQ is fine for a stopper NT unless you now for a fact that that suit will be led at trick 1.

 

Plus you are missing 3 aces. If partner is broke you will get doubled and be minus many--and it's not unlikely that partner has little. You have a bad 18 points, and the opener in theory has 5-10; this leaves only 12-17 points to divvy up between partner and LHO, and if partner doesn't have the majority of those points you are a definite underdog in 3NT.

 

The queen of clubs with partner would be wonderful, but if he doesn't have it you may be stuck immediately after trick 3. And even if he does you might not be able to take 9 tricks before they run spades. Many, many spades.

 

Give East something like: ♠xx ♥AJxx ♦QJxx ♣Qxx. This is not an unlikely holding on the auction. Now try to avoid a massive penalty in 3NT!

 

I'd bid 4♣ and be content to make it or go down a small amount if partner is broke. It's not likely to get doubled, and if partner has some values he might take you to 5♣. Yes, you might suffer a 2nd round spade ruff in a ♣ contract, but that's only one blown trick, not 5.

 

Keep in mind also that your bid might push them to 4♠ which might make. I don't like this hand one bit.

Every 3N bidder understands that KQ tight is a poor holding for the reasons you gave. Every 3N bidder knows the risks.

 

I very much doubt that any 3N bidder would sit for a penalty double. It doesn't take brilliance to understand that the doubler probably has either at least 2 spades and some Aces or a boatload of defence......and I expect every single 3N bidder would bid 4♣, which gets us back to where you were.

 

So: if 3N makes, you miss it.

if 3N is doubled, we run to 4♣.....if we get hammered there, then the odds are pretty good that you were getting hammered after your direct overcall.

 

When I wrote that this hand is 'everyone's 3N', I was guilty of an overbid, but I stand by the spirit of the comment. In a high level swiss/round-robin event, I would expect virtually everyone to bid 3N...it is that routine. Someone has to bid game, 3N is the most probable game, and if 4♥ is better, partner is at leasrt as likely to bid it over 3N than 4♣.

 

I haven't commented on NLM (non-leaping michaels), which seems to be more common on the forums than in real life, but for those who play NLM, 4♣ shows hearts and clubs, so 4♣ doesn't exist here anyway. But, I repeat...my choice of 3N is not dependent in any way on that...I don't play and wouldn't ever assume for a problem that the OP plays NLM here unless expressly stated.

[Phil]

The problem with 3NT is that you have no hold-up power in spades.

 

If partner has three spades, we do not need this. Also, here's a lead problem for you. You hold: AJTxxxx xxx x xx when your RHO bids 3N over your 3♠ opening. Is it automatic to lead a spade? Hardly.

 

By the way, the shorter partner's spades are, the more likely our clubs are running.

 

In theory, if you lose an early trick you could go down 4 and be doubled in the process.

 

Who is doubling me? The hand that couldn't take a call over 3♠ or the hand that preempted? Did I tip my hand during the bidding?

 

Plus you are missing 3 aces. If partner is broke you will get doubled and be minus many--and it's not unlikely that partner has little. You have a bad 18 points, and the opener in theory has 5-10; this leaves only 12-17 points to divvy up between partner and LHO, and if partner doesn't have the majority of those points you are a definite underdog in 3NT.

 

You are definitely overthinking this but do you really think LHO really has a 10 count with his (presumed) AJTxxxx? I'd say LHO has 5-7, leaving 15-17 between pard and RHO. Now partner didn't double 3♠, and RHO didn't boost, so the split is going to be between 12-3/5 or 3/5-12 I think. When clubs are running and partner happens to have three spades, we need practically nothing to make 3N.

 

Give East something like: ♠xx ♥AJxx ♦QJxx ♣Qxx. This is not an unlikely holding on the auction. Now try to avoid a massive penalty in 3NT!

 

LOL who doubles 3N on this hand? Even then, partner has the ♦A, I will take the club finesse (marked with the double) and soon be down writing +750.

 

I'd bid 4♣ and be content to make it or go down a small amount if partner is broke. It's not likely to get doubled, and if partner has some values he might take you to 5♣. Yes, you might suffer a 2nd round spade ruff in a ♣ contract, but that's only one blown trick, not 5.

 

4♣ is such a nothing bid. The spectrum of hands that makes 5♣ and doesn't make 3N is very small. If someone made me choose a non-3N call, I would rather pass.

 

Keep in mind also that your bid might push them to 4♠ which might make. I don't like this hand one bit.

 

Balancing your opponents into game is not a realistic scenario.

[mikeh]

HiLow

 

 

I mean no disrespect to you from what follows.

 

You write articulately, but it is apparent from your views that you are a little out of step with expert approaches to these sorts of decisions. Experts almost universally strive to bid game whenever it seems plausible to do so.....especially when, as here, the alternatives are really unattractive.

 

Experts also generally see the glass as half full in these situations....I speak as a life-long glass half-empty player who has to force himself to ignore this tendency in my own game.

 

Not bidding 3N is giving in to your fears rather than playing optimistically.

 

Check out the players who reach the finals and semi-finals of major events....they're almost all optimists. In short, it's a bidder's game.

[mikeh]

If partner has three spades, we do not need this. Also, here's a lead problem for you. You hold: AJTxxxx xxx x xx when your RHO bids 3N over your 3♠ opening. Is it automatic to lead a spade? Hardly.

 

By the way, the shorter partner's spades are, the more likely our clubs are running.

 

 

 

Who is doubling me? The hand that couldn't take a call over 3♠ or the hand that preempted? Did I tip my hand during the bidding?

 

 

 

You are definitely overthinking this but do you really think LHO really has a 10 count with his (presumed) AJTxxxx? I'd say LHO has 5-7, leaving 15-17 between pard and RHO. Now partner didn't double 3♠, and RHO didn't boost, so the split is going to be between 12-3/5 or 3/5-12 I think. When clubs are running and partner happens to have three spades, we need practically nothing to make 3N.

 

 

 

LOL who doubles 3N on this hand? Even then, partner has the ♦A, I will take the club finesse (marked with the double) and soon be down writing +750.

 

 

 

4♣ is such a nothing bid. The spectrum of hands that makes 5♣ and doesn't make 3N is very small. If someone made me choose a non-3N call, I would rather pass.

 

 

 

Balancing your opponents into game is not a realistic scenario.

 

Phil, you are in direct seat :D

[akhare]

Joining the 3N chorus..

[Phil]

Oops.

 

I still bid 3N. Not as joyously I suppose.

[HighLow21]

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, I just particularly took exception to the idea that it's "everyone's" 3NT bid. It's not mine and I am perfectly OK with being wrong on this. I am perfectly happy to miss +400 in a making 3NT contract out of fear of dropping a boatload if I'm wrong and our side has no safe place to run to. It's a risk/reward calculation, and my estimates of the risk/reward make me bid conservatively here.

 

To me, as an IMPs player, who has been positively crushed in this spot with a direct 3NT overcall, I wouldn't bid 3NT. That doesn't make the "experts" right or "me" wrong. What it does do is make the statement "everyone's 3NT" incorrect.

 

Some very important things to consider:

 

(1) The odds are fair that partner has exactly 2 spades; maybe even 1. Terrible, because then usually LHO will hold exactly 2 spades (or 3) and decent defenders will force you to win trick 1. You now must run off 8 more fast ones and most of the time, they won't be there. When they are there, you will make; when they aren't, you will get doubled way too often. Partner would need the Q♣ and either A♦ or AK♥ for this, or enough clubs to make the Q♣ drop odds-on. I'd put the odds of a successful layout somewhere around 30-40%. (To your point Phil, yes you could finesse against Q♣ if need be if your 3NT bid was in balancing seat but it's not, it's in direct seat. Massive difference. Mind you, 3NT could also fail in your scenario if partner doesn't have a fast red suit entry to take that desperately needed club finesse; and if happens to fail, you will be entering -1100 or worse.)

 

(2) The odds are also fair that LHO will be able to accurately appraise the hand when doubling 3NT is the right thing to do. If, for example, he is able to estimate that you do not have the spades stopped more than once, he will have a very light trigger finger. Would I double as East with ♠xx ♥AJxx ♦QJxx ♣Qxx? If I trust my partner's preempts, you betcha. If it gets redoubled back to me I might pull, as 4♠ is unlikely to cost much, but I might stick it. And I might be going home with a +2200.

 

(3) There is an extremely important distinction between 3NT in direct seat, 2nd to act, as here, and a balancing 3NT after everyone has had a chance to pass. I agree that if on lead, the preemptor may fear leading from AJTxxxx♠, but his partner won't. The opening lead is marked and the odds are very high that spades will be wide open after trick 1. Also, because 3♠ is a 1st seat preempt, nothing is known about LHO or partner's hand. If LHO had passed before, or if LHO had preempted and his partner passed, the pendulum swings more towards 3NT for me.

 

I'm not at all saying that 3NT is wrong. I do think it's a close call, but I tend to favor a more conservative 4♣ bid for the reasons I've already elucidated. On many hands 3NT will be the winning bid and I'll be one of the few who miss it. All I'm saying is, it wouldn't be my bid. Bidding 3NT as the correct action here is not a matter of fact, it is a matter of opinion.

 

3NT might be cold, and as I said before, 3NT makes a lot more sense to me at MP scoring, or if you know that your partner will take out 3NT when doing so is right and will weather it doubled when he knows it's right. I just side against 3NT because 9 fast tricks seems less likely to me than at first it would appear.

[ArtK78]

Hi Low.

 

As MikeH said, it is likely that everyone (or almost everyone) who bid 3NT would not sit for a double of 3NT. So the -1100 and -1400 that you are talking about do not exist, unless the opps can beat 4♣ (or whatever contract pard bids over 4♣) by that amount.

 

As for the -2200, that is a fantasy. If my pard sends back 3NTx, we are not going down. I have what I am supposed to have, and then some. To me, the redouble here is not SOS or express doubt (although I suspect that others might think differently).

[aguahombre]

As for the -2200, that is a fantasy. If my pard sends back 3NTx, we are not going down. I have what I am supposed to have, and then some. To me, the redouble here is not SOS or express doubt (although I suspect that others might think differently).

This point is worth emphasizing. A sharp partner will anticipate that your 3NT might have been flawed and that you might run from it. He will rewind as assurance, so you won't.

[gwnn]

Would you really double 3NT with that flat 10?

[HighLow21]

Look, I completely agree that most people will run when it is right to do so. I'm simply trying to emphasize that 3NT doesn't have to work; that 4♣ directly is less likely to get doubled than a 4♣ runout when we can't make anything (and that will happen quite often); and that while I agree with being optimistic, this just isn't the hand for it. The opponents know too much about each others' hands, and I don't know enough about my partner's.

 

Yes, +2200 seems like a fantasy. But it can happen. It does happen. Partner may be at a loss for what to do. A redouble might be misinterpreted by any partnership that hasn't discussed this scenario. You may never find your best fit. You've already been warned that a spade is being led and your spade holding is the worst 5-HCP spade holding you could possibly possess for NT. Your 18 points are bad, slow points. They might make 4♠ accidentally (this is true whether we bid 3NT or 4♣). On balance I expect this hand to be bad for our side more often than it's good for our side. Give me another small spade, or give me the A♠ instead of the K♠, and I can bid 3NT confidently and even redouble if I feel the mood. But that doesn't change the fact that this is one of the least favorite 18-HCP hands I will hold in my bridge-playing lifetime.

 

Now--> If we think our partner is sharp, and we trust his judgment, 3NT likely will win more often than it loses. But I've already conceded that point, and nowhere in the prompt to this problem does it state that we particularly like our partner's judgment, or that our partner (or partnership) is A/E.