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Beating 3NT when 2C opener is exposed


HighLow21

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This hand happened to me recently (I was the partner of the exposed defender's hand and was saddened by his error at trick 2). I submitted it to Ben, i.e. Inquiry, for possible inclusion in his B/I Defender's Play series. He asked that I post it in the Forums.

 

Here goes my first attempt at using Hand Editor:

[hv=pc=n&w=sak832hj98d854c52&n=sq97hak6dajcakq73&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=2cp2dp3cp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

You lead K at trick 1. What do you do at trick 2 and more importantly, why?

 

A/E responders, please hide your replies in a "Spoiler" tag.

 

Thanks!

-Tate

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Trick 2 - lead a diamond, hope pard has the K and Q and some length.

 

It looks like declarer has 4/5 clubs, a dime, 2 hearts, and a spade after your is knocked out.

 

Dead on so far. Next question --> what is the probability that declarer has 5 tricks in clubs? An estimate is reasonable. Does your intuition tell yuo 4 or 5 is more likely?

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  • 3 years later...

One comment about the way you've posed the problem - you're much better to include ALL the information (including spot cards and signalling methods) so that the reader can decide what is important.

 

Regarding your lead choice, I agree with Mr1303 that holding an entryless hand, a small spade lead is by far the best chance. If partner held the Jx on this deal a small spade lead would've beaten the contract straight up.

 

However, once you have started with a top spade, things look pretty grim. I'd guess there's about a 50% chance that that clubs are running and if they are we have an uphill battle to win 5 tricks. In both cases is looks like a diamond switch is our best chance because it requires the least from partner.

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