6S

[gszes]

I am mostly concerned with the bidding. Using 4n to ask

for key cards is fine but do not sign off when you have

all of the key cards because p must assume our side is

missing a key card when you bid 6 and they can never go

to 7 with a surprise:)))))))))))))))))). Even if you

want to stop in 6 go through 5n (if it is safe like it is

here) and then sign off in 6 after your p bids. I will

look at the play of the hand later.

[gszes]

the opening lead appears to be 5th best assuming 3rd/5th best

info not supplied so it is an assumption. The opening lead

also indicates a non continuous heart sequence at the top.

 

Using those assumptions is seems highly unlikely lho has

a singleton club or dia since they would probably prefer

to lead the singleton vs 5th best from a yuck suit. In

fact, lho would probably be more likely to be void in

dia or clubs vs having a singleton. The odds are roughly

70/30 (most of that 30% includes hands with lho holding a

singleton club or dia) that lho will have a relatively

benign distribution like 2633 or some such making the play

of taking the two top dia and a third dia (going for a ruff

or 33 break) the best try.

 

The fact that opener strongly rates to have 6 hearts means

all we have to do is ruff one dia and use the heart A

for a club pitch. We cannot safely test alternate lines

and still retain this option because the trump suit is our

only entry to the dummy and the vital heart A. Hoping the club

finesse works puts us in at best a 50% contract with no strong

reason to assume the finesse will work (lho had cruddy hearts

so they have values elsewhere.

[quiddity]

After much agonizing thought, I too think quiddity's line is best.

 

Really? I was pretty sure it was the worst.

Here's an attempt at comparison:

 

Line 1: ♦A. If RHO drops an honor, draw trump and diamond to the ten. Otherwise, ♦K, ♦x, hoping to ruff a diamond and cash the ♥A.

Line 2: strip majors, draw trumps, diamond to the ten.

 

Line 1 gains when hearts are 2=6 and RHO holds one, two, or three diamonds containing exactly one honor.

Line 2 gains when LHO holds both diamond honors and (hearts are 1=7 or RHO holds 0-1 diamonds).

 

Line 1 gaining:

- 2=6 heart break : 11:7 empty spaces

- diamond breaks: 3-3 = 31.1%, 4=2 = 37.3%, 5=1 = 17.4%

3-3: 20 total holdings, RHO holds exactly one honor in 12 of them.

4=2: 15 total holdings, RHO holds exactly one honor in 8 of them.

5=1: 6 total, RHO holds an honor in 2 of them.

===> (12/20)*31.1 + (8/15)*37.3 + (2/6)*17.4 = 44.4% of the 2=6 heart breaks.

 

Line 2 gaining:

- 1=7 heart break : 12:6 empty spaces

- chance of LHO holding ♦QJ = (12/18)(11/17) = 43.1% of the 1=7 heart breaks

- 2=6 heart break

- diamond breaks: 6=0 = 2.5%, 5=1 = 17.4%

===> (4/6)*17.4 + 2.5 = 14% of the 2=6 heart breaks

 

These lines are equal if RHO started with 6 hearts 58% of the time. My guess is that this is too low (given the loose preempt style and the solid heart suit). If RHO is always opening 3♥ whether he has 6 or 7, then the chance he has 6 is the same as the chance that LHO has the ♥4 given 12:7 empty spaces (63%). In fact RHO might open 4♥ on some of his 7-baggers so it looks like the diamond ruff line is significantly better.

[Cascade]

the opening lead appears to be 5th best assuming 3rd/5th best

info not supplied so it is an assumption. The opening lead

also indicates a non continuous heart sequence at the top.

 

RHO opened 3♥.

 

LHO lead from either ♥6 or ♥64.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=sajt843hkdak85ca8&n=skqha532dt62cqj75&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=pp3h4sp4np5cp6sppp]266|200|

Cascade asks "Lead ♥ 6. 3♥ was described as "loose could be a six-card suit". How do you play?[

 

Guess: ♥K, ♦A, ♣x towards ♣Q.

- If ♣Q wins then ♦x towards ♦K, ♣A and another round of ♦, hoping to ruff the fourth round in dummy.

- If LHO wins ♣K, then cash ♣A , ♠KQ, ♣QJ.

- If RHO wins ♣K then run ♥ return to dummy's ♥A, hoping RHO has fewer than 7 ♥.,

[/hv]:

[gnasher]

Quiddity, both of your lines work if RHO has a singleton diamond honour and ♣K - in Line 2, he'll be endplayed.

 

With hearts 2=6 and diamonds 5=1, ♣K onside is 50%, so I think the figure for Line 1 gaining should be

===> (12/20)*31.1 + (8/15)*37.3 + (2/6)*17.4 * 0.5 = 41.5%

[Cascade]

[hv=pc=n&s=sajt843hkdak85ca8&w=s652h6dqj94ct9643&n=skqha532dt62cqj75&e=s97hqjt9874d73ck2&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=pp3h4sp4np5cp6sppp]399|300[/hv]

[JLOGIC]

Against me on this hand they overcalled 2H, so I was simply going down...I played diamond diamond diamond and planned to ruff a diamond and pitch a club, but RHO pitched the H4 on the diamond...oops..so now I hooked a club. Goes to show little things matter a lot. FWIW I thought at the time that a low club from hand towards the QJ was probably the best line after a 3H overcall.