Just a guess?

[mich-b]

[hv=pc=n&w=skq962h65daj72c75&e=sa4hq4dk8653cakj4&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=2d2np3hp3sp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

2D was Multi.

3H was a transfer.

Teams , expert opps.

 

We can all see the final contract was silly.. Perhaps you would have bid differently with East on his 1st or last call ,

but wait:

South leads the ♥2 , North wins with the ♥A , and after some consideration switches to the ♣10. You win with the Ace (South playing the ♣8 UDCA - does that mean anything in the context that he knows his side is cashing hearts?), and try the ♠s, North discarding a ♥ on the 3rd round. You play a ♦ to the King (North following with the 9) , and a ♦ , South following with the 10.. What do you play from dummy , and how sure are you?

[Flameous]

It seems the two shapes for N are 2614 and 2623, former with T9xx or QT9x or the latter with T9x (or QT9?). ♣8 might suggest that N holds the Q but S might just discourage to make his partner cash the hearts so I'm not too sure. I'd just play the a priori odds and cash the ace.

[phil_20686]

You should have cashed the club K at trick three. They would almost certainly give true count on the suit at that stage.

 

Now you should cash the A of diamonds, much the most likely club switch is T9x, in which case he has two diamonds.

[Hanoi5]

6322 is more likely than 6421. 4432 is also more likely than 4333. *Looks around so nobody watches* And the queen is always with the nine.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

In Bridge and Romance .... the Q is always over the J .

 

[ or follow eight-ever.... nine-never ] .

[MrAce]

Perhaps North was a good player and lead was from KJ2. OP mentioned defenders were experts.

 

He saw that if he continued ♥, after 3 rounds of ♥ this would only help to endplay pd. And he decided their side can take 3♥ tricks plus another 2 tricks.

 

How did N know his pd led from KJ2 ? Easy, we didnt drop any honor on Ace, his pd can not be leading from Hxx, that leaves him either with QJx or KJx or KQx. With 2 of these his pd would lead obvious top sequence then that leaves KJx.

 

Why North can not have AJxxxx ? He would almost always continue the suit. Only logical holding that he may want to do something else is when he has Axxxxx.

 

Why cant ♥2 be stiff for N point of view ? Due to the lack of false carding by declarer maybe ?

 

All of this unfortunately may only take out the expectation that if we finesse and go wrong, N may make another mistake. Imo he won't.

 

Perhaps declarer should not have tested ♠ suit at the first place, under these assumptions.

 

If my assumptions are true, N would not have opened weak 2 at these colors with 2623 and only Axxxxx ♥. I would finesse .

[Flameous]

I somehow though the hearts might well be AKJxxx/QTxx but I didn't really think why N would win the ace.

On the other hand I would never lead small from KJx in teams, I don't want to be blocking the suit every time. MPs that would make more sense.

[MrAce]

I somehow though the hearts might well be AKJxxx/QTxx but I didn't really think why N would win the ace.

On the other hand I would never lead small from KJx in teams, I don't want to be blocking the suit every time. MPs that would make more sense.

 

If N had AKJxxx and thought that declarer has QTxx, he would not have false carded by Ace and fool his pd, since he can not fool the declarer :)

[rogerclee]

In the bidding, west bid their hand in the only way possible, and east's bidding was reasonable to me also.

 

In the play, north knows that we have <= 2 spades and 2 or 4 hearts, and we definitely have 4 hearts more often than 2, so it seems he just played for that. If north is 2614 a club switch seems more intuitive than with 2623, and also at these colors 2614 is more likely than 2623, given that they do not have the KQ of hearts, though it depends a little on their style.

 

With xx AJTxxx Q9 QT9/T9x, if we have something like Ax KQ9x majors and Kxx(x) HHx(x) minors, a club switch is usually not good enough to beat 3N, so they would have just continued hearts. With xx AJTxxx 9 QT9x/T9xx, a club switch often beats the contract outright when we had 3S+2H+4D on passive defense, and it is just more likely that switching to clubs is right even if it does not lead to an immediate beat.

 

Hooking seems better to me.

[whereagles]

This might be wrong, but my feeling tells me RHO hasn't got more than 2 or 3 clubs, so I'll play for the drop.

 

Nothing fancy about this.. just a hunch.

[lamford]

This might be wrong, but my feeling tells me RHO hasn't got more than 2 or 3 clubs, so I'll play for the drop.

 

Nothing fancy about this.. just a hunch.

I finesse. We know that North has eight major suit card and South has seven. We cannot tell how the clubs lie, and expert opponents are not here to help us. Mind you they were not expert enough to cash six rounds of hearts, but I presume that North could not tell whether South had three or four hearts. It would seem that finessing is about 6/11 or 55% and the drop is around 5/11 or 45%.

[kayin801]

N seems afraid that we have 4 spades (after knocking out S's possible stopper), 2 hearts, 2 diamonds, and a club, so he's switching to find 3 club tricks to go along with a heart and a spade. Seems consistent with xx, AJxxxx, x, Q109x or something similar, and he's putting us with Ax, KQx, Hxxx, Hxxx or thereabouts. If we have the diamond K we can guess wrong, if we have the diamond Q we have to finesse to get our trick, but that implies he doesn't have the diamond Q.

 

I'd hook.

[wank]

i think it's pretty much a guess.

 

i don't find the switch too perplexing - north should be forgiven for not putting us with 2-2 majors.

 

obviously south wants a heart switch so no assumptions to be drawn from the 8 of clubs

 

it's just a case then of deciding what looks like a red multi to this chap. if he was conservative i'd go for a 6421. otherwise, there's not much reason to overrule the maths so play for the drop. fwiw, in england at least, multi players are on average much more aggressive than others.

[gnasher]

I finesse. We know that North has eight major suit card and South has seven. We cannot tell how the clubs lie, and expert opponents are not here to help us. Mind you they were not expert enough to cash six rounds of hearts, but I presume that North could not tell whether South had three or four hearts. It would seem that finessing is about 6/11 or 55% and the drop is around 5/11 or 45%.

 

otherwise, there's not much reason to overrule the maths so play for the drop.

 

I think you're both wrong. South is known to have four spades, three hearts and two small diamonds. North is known to have two spades, six hearts and one small diamond. Hence mathematics cannot help you and you'll have to use your judgement instead.

[Poky]

LHO has 4 empty spaces (4S, 3H, 2D fixed).

RHO has 4 empty spaces (2S, 6H, 1D fixed).

From this point of view, the chances are 50%-50%.

 

But NS are unfavorable.

 

Since nobody should ever be inclined to open a multi with:

♠xx

♥A(J)xxxx

♦Qx

♣T9x

 

but some aggressive player may open it with:

♠xx

♥A(J)xxxx

♦x

♣T9xx

 

finessing is clearly better play than trying for a drop.

[Poky]

otherwise, there's not much reason to overrule the maths so play for the drop.

Before overruling or not overruling the maths it would probably be better trying to understand them properly. :rolleyes:

[phil_20686]

LHO has 4 empty spaces (4S, 3H, 2D fixed).

RHO has 4 empty spaces (2S, 6H, 1D fixed).

From this point of view, the chances are 50%-50%.

 

But NS are unfavorable.

 

Since nobody should ever be inclined to open a multi with:

♠xx

♥A(J)xxxx

♦Qx

♣T9x

 

but some aggressive player may open it with:

♠xx

♥A(J)xxxx

♦x

♣T9xx

 

finessing is clearly better play than trying for a drop.

 

I know lots of a players who would routinely open a multi with either of these hands. Even unfavourable.

[phil_20686]

[hv=pc=n&w=skq962h65daj72c75&e=sa4hq4dk8653cakj4&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=2d2np3hp3sp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

2D was Multi.

3H was a transfer.

Teams , expert opps.

 

We can all see the final contract was silly.. Perhaps you would have bid differently with East on his 1st or last call ,

but wait:

South leads the ♥2 , North wins with the ♥A , and after some consideration switches to the ♣10. You win with the Ace (South playing the ♣8 UDCA - does that mean anything in the context that he knows his side is cashing hearts?), and try the ♠s, North discarding a ♥ on the 3rd round. You play a ♦ to the King (North following with the 9) , and a ♦ , South following with the 10.. What do you play from dummy , and how sure are you?

 

Its probably smith peters if they are really expert opps

[lamford]

Its probably smith peters if they are really expert opps

Its probably random if they are really expert opps, assuming you mean the carding in clubs. Poor opponents might indeed play Smith Peters to tell partner he should not have switched! And I now agree with gnasher that after South follows to the second diamond it is 50%. In maths terms. But I agree with poky that the finesse looks better on the bidding.

[phil_20686]

Its probably random if they are really expert opps, assuming you mean the carding in clubs. Poor opponents might indeed play Smith Peters to tell partner he should not have switched! And I now agree with gnasher that after South follows to the second diamond it is 50%. In maths terms. But I agree with poky that the finesse looks better on the bidding.

 

Don't be a clown lamford, you are assuming that west is 100% sure his partner doesn't have a re-entry. Plenty of experts would not regard this as an exception to the smith peters rule. Suppose that east has an actual heart stop, how would it look to north with Ax Axxxxx x T98x? is he really supposed to guess that you led from Kxx rather than x? Perhaps a heart continuation is giving up a valuable tempo? Even if you have Qxx declarer could rise with the K and block the suit, then knock out the spade ace stranding the heart suit, so he figures he needs partner to have a some club tricks. Hardly an unreasonable construction.

[MrAce]

Even if you have Qxx declarer could rise with the K and block the suit, then knock out the spade ace stranding the heart suit, so he figures he needs partner to have a some club tricks. Hardly an unreasonable construction.

 

No, if declarer plays K to block the suit, you unblock your Q. I think u didnt read my first post, there are only 13 hearts in deck. Declarer can not have KJx ♥.

 

For North's point of view (if he has ATxxxx) declarer has either KQJx or Qx. I would expect declarer to false card from KQJx to convince N to continue ♥.

 

To me N shd not have AJxxxx either, he shd continue the suit, bidding 2NT with Hx in a major is very common over multi 2♦, some people can do it even with Jx (me for example), some dont even require a stopper in both majors, they just wanna describe their 17 hcp balanced hand right away.

 

I don't know if thats a hint for N, but he didnt DBL 3♥ bid, eventhough his suit was obviously ♥ if he wanted it badly he could have, South still led ♥2. If i was north i wouldnt convince myself too easily that pd led his stiff while he has a good ♣ suit and that if we play ♣ now we can set them. But thats probably just me. I agree declarer is more likely to hold 4♥ than 2 but otoh If pd has 3♥ i have a decent chance to defeat 3NT, if pd has stiff we may still defeat but our chances are extremely shrinked.

[phil_20686]

No, if declarer plays K to block the suit, you unblock your Q. I think u didnt read my first post, there are only 13 hearts in deck. Declarer can not have KJx ♥.

 

For North's point of view (if he has ATxxxx) declarer has either KQJx or Qx. I would expect declarer to false card from KQJx to convince N to continue ♥.

 

To me N shd not have AJxxxx either, he shd continue the suit, bidding 2NT with Hx in a major is very common over multi 2♦, some people can do it even with Jx (me for example), some dont even require a stopper in both majors, they just wanna describe their 17 hcp balanced hand right away.

 

I don't know if thats a hint for N, but he didnt DBL 3♥ bid, eventhough his suit was obviously ♥ if he wanted it badly he could have, South still led ♥2. If i was north i wouldnt convince myself too easily that pd led his stiff while he has a good ♣ suit and that if we play ♣ now we can set them. But thats probably just me. I agree declarer is more likely to hold 4♥ than 2 but otoh If pd has 3♥ i have a decent chance to defeat 3NT, if pd has stiff we may still defeat but our chances are extremely shrinked.

 

I was giving the problem for south when it comes to his carding. He doesnt know where the J of hearts is, if he decides declarer has it and thats why partner did not continue, then unblocking the heart Q will not help. Lamford was suggesting no experts would play smith peters on the club - I was pointing out that it will often be easy for south to envisage hands where its wrong for partner to continue hearts. Even if south can work it out, he must be confident that both he and his partner can work out that it is actually right to continue hearts, before he can give up smith peters.

 

If there are layouts that look the same to either player where north would be unsure about the heart position, or south would be unsure about the heart position, then smith peters should still apply. I didnt mean that it makes a difference on this layout. Obviously, if I knew where all the cards were I would choose not to smith peters now, and give a different signal in clubs, but that is not the real problem the defender is faced with.

[MrAce]

I was giving the problem for south when it comes to his carding. He doesnt know where the J of hearts is, if he decides declarer has it and thats why partner did not continue, then unblocking the heart Q will not help.

 

South knows N has 6♥, he sees 2 ♥ on table, and if he has Qxx that leaves declarer with only 2♥ with one of them being played on first ♥ trick, thus declarer can not have ♥J when/if 2nd ♥ is played at some point either by pd or declarer himself.

 

I wasnt trying to interfere with the debate between u and him, i was mereley trying to correct the ♥ situation.

[Poky]

Don't be a clown lamford, you are assuming that west is 100% sure his partner doesn't have a re-entry. Plenty of experts would not regard this as an exception to the smith peters rule.

No real expert plays smith echo when is it time to give attitude in a side suit. Maybe you understand mechanics of this convention (btw, used when declarer plays some neutral suit), but you do not understand bridge.

[han]

If you finesse before playing the spades, you still make if it is wrong and hearts are blocked. Given that the opponents are experts, why don't we play this way? If the spades split 3-3, north probably has a singleton diamond anyway.