Zelandakh Posted January 30, 2012 Report Share Posted January 30, 2012 That sure looks like a 4 card heart suit to me. I am with MrAce on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 It's also bad partnership feeling to miss games. And it's not that you're overrulling pard: when pard shows a fit, new data has come to light. You're allowed to recalculate. Passing will certainly win the post-mortem but may very well not win at table. Ah, but pd most likely only has a 3 card fit - no superaccepts. So the fit is not that great. is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Statto Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 Ah, but pd most likely only has a 3 card fit - no superaccepts. So the fit is not that great. is it?And the trumps are not that great either. I think if I was going to bid on I'd choose 3NT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnu Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am in 3NT camp. This hand was played by the friend of mine (quite a good player) and his choice was a pass which imo is a mistake.If we are to believe dd simulations 3NT makes about 35% of the time (similar to 4H) and 3H makes 80% of the time. This alone makes 3NT +EV call at imps but imo it will make more than 35% of the time as defending is difficult, especially 1st lead. I also ran some simulations on Dealmaster Pro. For 200 hands opposite a balanced (including 5332, 6332) with 15 HCP. My numbers seem to match within the margin of error for the sample size. I also ran some additional simulations: ____________________3NT______________4H3 or 4 hearts________41%______________46%3 hearts____________37%______________32%4 hearts____________50%______________63% If partner can have 4 hearts, then it looks close to a tossup whether to bid 4H. If opener will super accept the transfer with 4 hearts and 15 HCP, or after 2NT, jump to 4H with 4 hearts and 15CHP, you're only left with opener having 3 hearts, then passing seems best. Maybe a more interesting question is whether opener should super accept the transfer with 15HCP and 4 card trump support. It risks getting too high when responder is really weak, but can lead to a good game if responder is just below an invitational range hand. If you don't superaccept, opener jumping to game over 2NT with 4 trump and 15HCP looks like a clear winner from the simulations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 Ah, but pd most likely only has a 3 card fit - no superaccepts. So the fit is not that great. is it?True. But you know how it's like in teams games: "when in doubt..." I don't know about you, but I sure have doubts ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 True. But you know how it's like in teams games: "when in doubt..." I don't know about you, but I sure have doubts ;)The problem with this is that there's often an unsaid and logically unsound corollary that people use: "When in doubt about being in doubt, consider you're in doubt. Hence bid game" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 I'm not meta-doubting (i.e. doubting whether I am in doubt lol). I consider I have a real reason to be in doubt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 Partner's judgement was that opposite a balanced nine-count with five hearts we belong in a partscore. I have a balanced nine-count with five hearts. To justify overruling him, I must have something that he won't expect. It's no good saying "We now have a fit" - partner knew that when he bid 3♥. If we have a nine-card fit, partner knew that too. Partner also knows that we're playing IMPs, he knows the vulnerability, he knows who the opponents are, and he knows how good his cardplay is. The only thing that might cause me to do something different is that my nine-count contains two aces. If you believe that aces increase siginficantly in value once an eight-card fit it found, that's a possible reason to bid game. Personally, I don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codo Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 I thought that the values of aces increase in a major fit while the value of Quacks decrease. So, yes my hand got better. Good enough for 4 ♥? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 Quacks decrease, yes. They do maintain value if bundled together or with intermediates (the case here with JTx of clubs). Aces go up to 4,5 or 5 points. The hand is a bit flattish, though. I would still bid it. If we do an FTL evaluation we get - Pard has a doubleton: short suit total of 4. We need 22-24 working points to take 10 tricks. We have 24 HCP. It will depend on whether they're all working.- Pard has no doubleton: SST of 5 and 25-27 WP to take 10 tricks. Very unlikely. Ultimately the simulations will give us the statistical solution, which seems to be pass, albeit by a very small margin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 I thought that the values of aces increase in a major fit while the value of Quacks decrease. So, yes my hand got better. Good enough for 4 ♥?Perhaps. But values in short suits is a negative value adjustment isn't it? At least a little? Anyway, I pass for partnership harmony. Partner has an easy postmortem if we go down in game (and egads, if we are doubled). "You invited, I declined, and then ... ?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codo Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yes short aces are worse then long aces. :) But: Pass because of hand evaluation is fine. Pass because of harmony is bad. If partner cannot live with my descissions, he should choose another partner. Or I will.Same is true for post mortem winners... After the hand is over, I know too, what had been right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 If partner cannot live with my descissions, he should choose another partner. I understand. Realize that partner might agree .. about his decision to play a partscore. Perhaps I will never be an elite level player because I give too much weight to partnership harmony? I have always thought that a happy partner contributes much more to good results than an annoyed or angry partner. Or does that only apply to nonexperts like myself and my partners? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codo Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 Bad manners are no sign for a particular playing level. To accept partners descission does not forbid to overrule him if you have unexpected news. On the example hand, he bids under the assumtion that you have 5 hearts, invitational strength and a balanced hand.Whether you have a singelton, a very suit orientated hand or not is beyond his knowledge. So we are surely in a position where it is possible to overrule him. Whether or not the upgrade on this particular hand is justified is part of this discussion. So far 15 people voted yes, 10 no.I voted yes, but I must admit that Andys thoughts are very convincing that pass will be a long time winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 Of course I agree that it is important to choose the option that is a long term winner. When considering the partnership aspect, I guess you could say that I am anticipating additional loss, over and above the IMPs on this board, when I bid game and go down. This loss comes on future boards, from partner's reduced confidence in me, and reduces the expected value of the bid. In a perfect world, partner would never carry thoughts from one board to the next, he would always start each deal with a 100% clean slate, and so this extra loss would never happen. Maybe you are so lucky to have such partners! My own partners, and myself, are humans with feelings, and the extra consideration helps us. All that said, in my own bridge judgement based solely on the hand, I would still not bid game, even if I had such a perfect partner. But that is a separate discussion, and one where I stand far below most posters on these boards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 I would have been strongly tempted to treat this hand as a gf response opposite a 'disciplined' opener. However, the weakness of the heart suit, and the placement of my Aces in short, otherwise weak suits, and the vulnerability persuades me that an invite is all I am worth. Partner's preference back to hearts is encouraging, but at this vulnerability, I think it not encouraging enough. If I were to bid game, 3N has more going for it than does 4♥. Partner will always get us back to 4♥ if he holds 4 cards in the suit (still presumably possible if he has a true minimum), and 3N may be easier to make than 4♥ when he holds 3, and just possibly tougher to double when hearts break badly.....a good opp will double both contracts, but some opps wn't double 3N when they would double 4♥. However, I pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted January 31, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 invitational strength and a balanced hand. Not really. As new suit is usually played as GF after transfer we are forced to bid 2NT on various 5-4-3-1's or even 5-5's and partner is well advised not to pass that even with 4-3-3-3 so "balanced" is not quite a sure thing.Anyway we could have 8 or 9. Now we have 9 and information about 3rd heart. Is it enough for game ? If so, which one ? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 From all I have read in this thread, it seems that the judgement call with that responding hand would be to use Stayman (as mentioned early by MrAce and me), then to bid game opposite four hearts..and either invite or bid game opposite fewer. What I could not get from the sims thus far was: frequency of 15's with only two hearts which are favorites to make 3NT; and frequency of "accepting" NT openers with 3 hearts which would do better in notrump than in hearts. This type of sim analysis (in addition to the results already posted) would help determine whether to Stayman and invite or to Stayman and blast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted January 31, 2012 Report Share Posted January 31, 2012 Anyway we could have 8 or 9. What did you mean by "Invites are solid"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted February 3, 2012 Report Share Posted February 3, 2012 Inviting over 1N is ridiculous to me with this hand, but of course I'd pass now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted February 3, 2012 Report Share Posted February 3, 2012 I mean lol you are gonna get snap ripped almost literally every time trumps are 4-1 if you try bidding again on this auction, that's not great when you have 9xxxx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted February 3, 2012 Report Share Posted February 3, 2012 I think partner with a good 15 or 16 (4333) can bid 3m to send back the ball at us, so here I expect him to have a poor/medium 15 wich make it an easy pass. However this is a clear GF at Imps 2 aces and JTx are great cards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted February 3, 2012 Report Share Posted February 3, 2012 Well I certainly don't want to get snap ripped so I pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted February 3, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2012 What did you mean by "Invites are solid"? That many 8hcp passes, obviously not all of them. 1NT is 15-17. I mean lol you are gonna get snap ripped almost literally every time trumps are 4-1 I want to bid 3NT so there will be no trumps to split 4-1 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted February 3, 2012 Report Share Posted February 3, 2012 They are still going to double 3N when hearts are breaking badly if you bid 3N. I mean obv depends on opps but it doesn't take a genius to realize you are severely underpoitned and have a fit that breaks badly so you double. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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