Bid or Pass?

[jmcw]

[hv=pc=n&s=sk742hakq53d9cjt3&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=1cp1s]133|200[/hv]

 

Expecting a few wtp comments.

Nevertheless I would very much like to read the arguments.

 

Scoring is IMPS, near the end of what feels like a close match. Your opponents are a very good pair if that makes a difference

[rogerclee]

I would bid my 5 card suit headed by the AKQ.

[frank0]

Reasons to Overcall:

1. I have a solid suit and an opening hand.

2. If I pass, west will rebid 1NT very often and will end up in playing NT contract and partner will usually lead a ♦ and make me uncomfortable. Therefore I have to overcall.

3. 2♥ takes a lot of space. If the bidding goes 1♥-pass-1♠-? and I have ♠K742 ♥JT3 ♦9 ♣AKQ53 the overcall is less attractive and I'll pass but here it's a clear 2♥. West may have a 2♦ reverse hand and you disrupt opp to find the ♦ fit.

4. Your length in spade indicate shortness in spade on partner's hand, when you end up in playing the contract you can usually ruff a few spade losers in dummy.

5. Even though overcall is sometime dangerous, but there are plenty to gain and in the long run it's a +EV choice.

6. In quick, out quick. You should put pressure on opponent before they exchange all the information. If the bidding goes 1♣-P-1♠-p-1NT-p-p-? and you balance 2♥ here you're opponent usually have an easy decision to double you because they know the hand is misfit.

 

 

Reasons to Pass:

1. Having an opening hand does not mean you can overcall at 2 level, especially when you are red and at sandwich position. Usually 2 level overcall promise 6 cards suit and an offensive hand. Your high card strength prevent opponent from bidding a game and by overcall you may transfer a small negative/positive to big penalty. In addition, you're missing J, T, 9 in trump, which increases the chance that you're opponent will punish you by a lot.

2. By overcall with a defensive hand partner may hang you with 5♥ sacrifice over opponent's 4♠.

3. Your spade and club length in opp's suit indicate a misfit hand, you should let opponent struggle when the hand is misfit.

4. Overcall can let your opponent find 5-3 ♠ fit at two level by supportive double.

5. Even though you can gain something by overcall, but there are plenty to lose and in the long run overcall is a -EV choice.

6. Pass does not mean you're out forever, if the bidding goes 1♣-p-1♠-p-2♠-p-p-? you can balance 3♥ because you know when they have fit we must have.

 

I like to bid when I'm actually playing the hand but when someone ask me for opinion or in any type of discussion I say I pass and make the argument like "Weak players are not able to spot the trouble of strong hands." to let other people think I'm expert.

[aguahombre]

2H here, using FrankO's reasons #2,3,4, and 6 for doing it.

[bluecalm]

I think passing is reasonable. I have no idea how to decide which action is better though.