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Spread of expected tricks


1eyedjack

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Good fit, 13 tricks in a red suit...

 

Bad fit, 8 to 9 tricks in a red suit....

 

Is 4D a transfer to 4H? If so, 4D followed by 4S exclusion blackwood.. If partner shows with three keys, then 5NT, pick a slam, if he bids 6C, I will correct to 6D.. he will think, why not 6D over 4NT? He will realize grand slam try, red two suiter...

 

If he shows two key cards, I bid 6D pick one....

 

IF he shows one.. I ask for new partner and then bid 5H.

 

Ben

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Yup, I just bid a straight 6H.

Defence started:

Club ruff, Diamond Ace, Diamond ruff, Club ruff, Diamond ruff and later Heart Ace for five down. At least we weren't doubled (RHO had both red Aces and Club void! must have been mesmerised like the proverbial rabbit in the traffic lights).

 

Partner had

[hv=v=b&s=sakqjxhxdqjxcaxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

W ... N

3 ..??[/hv]

and I don't blame him in the slightest for the 3N bid.

 

Perhaps the clue should be in your Spade void. Partner has not overcalled 3S. RHO has not tried 4S over 3N. It is not conclusive, but perhaps we should suspect that partner's 3N is based on a running Spade suit more than the strong balanced type (the Club ruff is also not a surprise). Nothing will get you to pass 3N, I reckon, but perhaps on the strength of that you should just bid 4H. Partner will probably pull to 4S which you probably should pull back to 4N, which is not easy but I think has chances (cannot remember the complete distribution of opps).

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In this sequence where overcaller can have a strong balanced hand or a source of running tricks, we play that 4C asks. Now 4D/H/S shows a hand with running tricks in that suit and 4N shows the strong flat hand. Over 4S, which pd would bid here, I would bid 4N to play.
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[hv=v=b&s=shkqxxxxdkxxxxckx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

W...N...E...S

3..3N..P...??[/hv]

 

So: What you you reckon is the maximum that you can make opposite a well-fitting hand? And the minimum opposite a poorly fitting hand?

In light of which, your action is?

I'd transfer to 4H and bid 6D the next round. I hope partner not to hold CQJx, in that case they might have a club ruff. Also, 4C here shouldn't be stayman, it should show distributional two suiters.

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I think I'd overcall 3 with your pard's hand. I think its more likely that we can make 7 than go down in 6. Very very unlucky to hit 100 honors in spades and find all of SEVEN working points in pard's hand.

 

By the way, we are developing a 2-under transfer structure after 3N overcalls. 4 = hearts which pard can super-accept by bidding 4.

 

Maybe an intelligent auction here is to transfer to hearts (if you have it available) and then 5 EKCB, as long as we are blasting to 6.

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Yup, I just bid a straight 6H.

Defence started:

Club ruff, Diamond Ace, Diamond ruff, Club ruff, Diamond ruff and later Heart Ace for five down. At least we weren't doubled (RHO had both red Aces and Club void! must have been mesmerised like the proverbial rabbit in the traffic lights).

 

Partner had

[hv=v=b&s=sakqjxhxdqjxcaxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

W ... N

3 ..??[/hv]

and I don't blame him in the slightest for the 3N bid.

 

Perhaps the clue should be in your Spade void. Partner has not overcalled 3S. RHO has not tried 4S over 3N. It is not conclusive, but perhaps we should suspect that partner's 3N is based on a running Spade suit more than the strong balanced type (the Club ruff is also not a surprise). Nothing will get you to pass 3N, I reckon, but perhaps on the strength of that you should just bid 4H. Partner will probably pull to 4S which you probably should pull back to 4N, which is not easy but I think has chances (cannot remember the complete distribution of opps).

that's why people preempt. Also, 3S might be better than 3NT I think. You may miss sp games or slams sometimes, but at least you probably play in the right suit. I think people are bidding too many offshape 3NT nowadays. 3NT is still in nature balanced.

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