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I suppose it depends a bit on partner's pre-empting style. If he has AQJTxxx then 3NT looks great, but if he shows up with QJT9xx then it's better to pass and maybe they'll reopen and we'll be waiting with the aXe.

 

I'd try 3NT most of the time though.

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3N really needs a lot. The problem with bidding it is when its wrong, and partner doesn't have the club holding we are hoping for, it rates to go down a lot. 3N hopes for AQJxxxx or AJTxxxx + an outside card. Both are certainly possible, but so are a lot of lesser holdings.

 

Imagine something like AQxxxxx which is perfectly normal suit. -300 or -400 is very possible. Something like QJTxxxx + an outside card doesn't help us and I expect about the same number of undertricks. While I do not expect 3N to be doubled, we are in 9-11 IMP territory against our presumed +110/130 when 3N is -300/-400. This is about what we rate to gain when 3N is right, so for 3N to be right it needs to be about a break-even proposition, and clearly it isn't.

 

I'd pass.

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Pass smoothly and in tempo.

 

Never play partner, in the auction, for magic cards he hasn't said he has. 3N is incredibly optimistic.

 

Btw, while of ocurse we may have missed a nice game pickup, the counter to that (tho we shouldn't need a counter given that 3N usually fails by multiple tricks) is that once in a while LHO is sitting there with a balanced 13-14 count and reopens. Which rates not to be a success.

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