Hand Evaluation - NAP

[Phil]

This was from our District NAP (North American Pairs) qualifier on Saturday:

 

AQ AJT Ax K9xxxx.

 

I'm going to make you open 1♣ instead of 2N which looks pretty reasonable too.

 

Partner bids 2N which in your methods is 11-12. Follow-ups are virtually undiscussed.

[wyman]

I'd bid 6, and I'll be a little sad if partner has 5 diamonds and we make 7C on 4-2 diamonds. 6C probably > 6N at IMPs, but at MP's, I'll be greedy.

[MrAce]

How nice, if i were to go slam i would seriously consider a ♣ slam since 6 NT is probably wrongsided.

 

Pass is out of question

3♣ also since it will be passed out

3♦ is out of question, it is one of the suits pd is likely to hold and misguide us.

3M or 4♣ could be considerations but i dunno what we will achieve with this. Because even if we keycard after this it will be too late by the time we learn AQ ♣ is missing. And pd will almost always refuse slam invitations when we hold 4 keycards.

4♦ ? I wouldnt do it without discussion but if we both knew it was kickback or whatever named keycard asking that wld be nice.

 

4NT ? I dont think so, as i said all invitations will tend to be refused because pd is lack of almost all keycards if not all of them.

 

6♣ ? Not saying this shd be the bid but thats what i would go with. Definetely not 6NT. Without ♣ suit running i dont see how we make 6NT and i definetely want to play from my side. Even at MP this 6♣ will be a good score if we make it imo.

[billw55]

Maybe I am too wimpy but I just bid 3NT. We have a max of 30 HCP, a crummy suit, and no obvious source of pitches.

 

Sometimes at matchpoints taking the max number of tricks is worth almost as much as bidding them anyway.

[Fluffy]

to make slam we need partner fitting clubs, so 4♣ and pass 4NT if partner bids it.

[aguahombre]

3M or 4♣ could be considerations but i dunno what we will achieve with this. Because even if we keycard after this it will be too late by the time we learn AQ ♣ is missing.

It wouldn't be too late if 4C itself were the keycard (for clubs) asking bid, I imagine. We do know pard has some clubs, and that we can stop in 4NT if need be.

Edited December 21, 2011 by aguahombre

[mike777]

I'll try 3nt.

 

 

Kxx..Kxx...KT9xx...Qx?

[Phil]

I'll try 3nt.

 

 

Kxx..Kxx...KT9xx...Qx?

 

Does that hand really need to try to play the NT?

[aguahombre]

Does that hand really need to try to play the NT?

Good point. Before any decision about how to proceed over 2NT we must first know if partner is a hand-hog who will not respond 1D with diamonds and inadequate club help.

[Phil]

Good point. Before any decision about how to proceed over 2NT we must first know if partner is a hand-hog who will not respond 1D with diamonds and inadequate club help.

 

Partner is a decent player, but he had a 'deer in the headlights' look much of the day. The field was really tough, and I think he got psyched out early. Therefore, he was doing everything in his power NOT to play the hands LOL.

[Cascade]

Good point. Before any decision about how to proceed over 2NT we must first know if partner is a hand-hog who will not respond 1D with diamonds and inadequate club help.

 

Similar question.

 

Does partner have any other way to bid clubs? Particularly if he might do that with four clubs.

 

Will 2NT normally deny four of a major? If so can I fairly safely start bidding new suits at the three level without partner thinking I have length there?

[wyman]

fwiw, when I blasted 6N, I assumed a style in which:

- partner denied a 4cM, and

- partner would have bid 1D with KQxxx or better.

 

I'm fully expecting 33(34) or (32)44 from partner.

[Phil]

fwiw, when I blasted 6N, I assumed a style in which:

- partner denied a 4cM, and

- partner would have bid 1D with KQxxx or better.

 

I'm fully expecting 33(34) or (32)44 from partner.

 

You assume correctly.

[wyman]

You assume correctly.

 

Now if only my hand evaluation were as good as my assumptive abilities!

[aguahombre]

Therefore, he was doing everything in his power NOT to play the hands LOL.

So, you would oblige him by keying for clubs and only resorting to NT if obvious from the result of your inquiry? Sounds good to me.

[MrAce]

It wouldn't be too late if 4C itself were the keycard (for clubs) asking bid, I imagine. We do know pard has some clubs, and that we can stop in 4NT if need be.

 

 

Of course, i was refering to 4NT. As i said if 4♦/♣ bids are some sort of keycarding, that would be nice. But with OP saying not much discussion on them, i thought bidding them and expecting pd to respond keycards at 4 level was out of question.

 

Unless of course it is very standart and/or obvious for everyone that i was not aware of.

[whereagles]

The canonical bid is 4C but that doesn't help us sort out the most important thing (how good pard's clubs are), so I might as well bid 6C now.

 

Even if pard's 4NT over 4C were a sort of "I'm not interested" bid showing e.g. Kxx KQx Kxxx xxx, it wouldn't help much, as he would definitely accept the invite with the aforementioned Kxx Kxx KT9xx Qx due to the fitting club queen.

 

We clearly don't have the methods here, so it's a bit of a shot. 6C seems to be the percentage bid (6NT rates hopeless unless clubs run anyway).

[Phil]

Five days after the event, I still think this is an interesting hand.

 

4N is a strange call opposite a 11-12 HCP hand. Generally this would require 20-21, but this is out as a balanced hand. Unbalanced hands can reverse over 2N, and hands that strictly have clubs can bid 4♣, which probably makes the most sense as RKC here. I guarantee you this partner would interpret 4♣ as Gerber.

 

So IMO, since 4N cannot be any of the above, it should focus on one aspect of responder's hand - and thats clubs. A lot of 11 counts with four clubs make slam excellent, but 11 counts with 3 clubs (and presumably 3343) make it less attractive. Picture Kxx Qxx KQxx Jxx. Obviously 6 of anything isn't hopeless, but you'd rather not be there.

 

In the end, I just blasted 6N. This worked well when partner had Jxx Qxx Kxx AQxx.

[pooltuna]

gird your loins and try to get a favorable lead - 6♣ NOW

[mike777]

Interesting thread thanks for posting.

 

As a nonexpert I always thought at MP one should not bid slams without solid reasons that it should be almost cold or at least the odds are heavily in your favor.

 

I wonder just how good should the odds be to bid slams at MP? How do we calculate that on this deal?

 

On this one people are blasting or girding their loins and in some sense hoping.

 

In any event they were right, slam makes.

[Mbodell]

I think it depends to a reasonable amount on the field strength, the field consistency, and your place in the field. In a lot of mixed/weak fields a good player will be looking at 65+% just for collecting 12 tricks in 3nt so bidding 6 to score 90+% needs good odds when it risks <10% when it goes down. But in a better, more consistent field, I think you expect more players to take their tricks and more players to bid it, so the odds needed to make goes down.

[gnasher]

Interesting thread thanks for posting.

 

As a nonexpert I always thought at MP one should not bid slams without solid reasons that it should be almost cold or at least the odds are heavily in your favor.

 

I wonder just how good should the odds be to bid slams at MP? How do we calculate that on this deal?

 

On this one people are blasting or girding their loins and in some sense hoping.

 

In any event they were right, slam makes.

Suppose that we're trying to decide between 6♣ and 3NT, and we think 6NT is probably a poor contract.

 

If we think that the entire field is in 3NT or 6♣, and will play the cards as well as we do, we should bid 6♣ is we think it's over 50%.

 

Some reasons for being more cautious than that are:

- We think some of the field will be in partscore or the wrong game.

- We think some of the field will go down in 6NT.

- We think our card play is above average.

Any of these means that bidding slam has more to lose and less to gain.

[Phil]

FWIW, this event is one of the strongest pairs events in Southern California.

 

The 4 session pairs or the Calcutta at the LA regional might be better, but not by much.

 

Not sure if that factors into your decision making.

[jillybean]

I sent this hand to my partner and our auction was;

 

1♣:2N

3♥:4♣

4♦*:4♥*

4♠*:5♦*

6♣

 

4♦ kickback, 4♥ 1 or 4

4♠ queen ask, 5♦ yes, and the ♦K

[mike777]

I sent this hand to my partner and our auction was;

 

1♣:2N

3♥:4♣

4♦*:4♥*

4♠*:5♦*

6♣

 

4♦ kickback, 4♥ 1 or 4

4♠ queen ask, 5♦ yes, and the ♦K

 

 

Ijust did with a pard also.....pard bid 2c inverted......hated the 2nt chosen at the table. :)

 

if forced to bid 2nt he also bid 3nt he noted this hand is really perfect cards.