Opening lead vs. 3NT?

[daveharty]

[hv=pc=n&w=s7432hak84dq74c92&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=p1hp1np2cp3cp3nppp]133|200[/hv]

Matchpoints. 1NT=F1, 2C=2+. Your lead?

 

Edit: hand is now correct.

[wyman]

Lead info redacted, since it gives away stuff about p's hand.

[daveharty]

 

edit: good, you're changing my hand, so now the readers will never know what holding I'm leading this from, so I'm immune to ridicule!

Haha, sorry Brian, I accidentally showed the East hand instead of the West hand. You are exempt from the poll now since you've seen both hands. Also could you modify your post, as you've revealed what's in your hand! :P

[Fluffy]

I'd try a spade

[FM75]

Based on bidding, I think most likely distribution is something like:

N 2=5=2=4

S 3=2=3=5.

 

North probably has a stopper in each pointed suit, but diamonds offer the prospect of our being 5-3 and spades are likely 4-4.

I would hope to set up diamonds and be able to continue them when getting in with hearts.

 

I am leaning toward the Q!D, even though that seems open to criticism. I want them to go up on first trick, or let me run another one.

[masse24]

I too voted a ♦ though the bidding has me feeling that North may not want anything to do with ♣.

 

He may have the dreaded 4=5=2=2 hand and was forced to bid his 2 card ♣ suit.

 

My ♥'s are not going anywhere and, I want to make somewhat of an an attacking lead before they can set up South's 5 card ♣ suit.

 

I am choosing a small ♦. Partner should be able to figure out how to get back to me for the ♦Q continuation. :unsure:

[gnasher]

A spade just looks obvious to me, I have four of them, it's an unbid major, and it's unlikely to cost a trick. It's very unappealing to lead from Qxx in what might be RHO's second suit, at matchpoints, in a limited auction, when partner is unlikely to have many entries.

[daveharty]

I was kibitzing some friends when this one came up. I would have led a spade, so that should be a clue that it's wrong. The NS pair was one of the best in the room, even if their bidding doesn't look very credible here; I think they were having a rough night and were taking a shot. 3NT is a fairly silly contract but if you lead any black card, declarer has 9 tricks:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sat9h3dj53cqt8754&w=s7432hak84dq74c92&n=skjhj9652dt92cakj&e=sq865hqt7dak86c63&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=p1hp1np2cp3cp3nppp]399|300[/hv]

[aguahombre]

Yep, we sometimes pay off when the opponents' hands don't bear resemblance to the auction. Spade lead looks right to me. NEXT.

[gordontd]

Nonsense deleted

[Mbodell]

The NS pair was one of the best in the room, even if their bidding doesn't look very credible here; I think they were having a rough night and were taking a shot. 3NT is a fairly silly contract but if you lead any black card, declarer has 9 tricks:

 

The bidding doesn't seem that unreasonable to me. It all seems standard until the 3nt bid which may figure with AKJ there will be long running clubs, and if you can make 9 tricks in clubs you get paid more for 9 in nt.

[MrAce]

I would have led ♠ also.

[whereagles]

Spade seems normal. Diamond is more gamblish: could work right or wrong.