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smell a rat?


rduran1216

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Since W led the heart J from Jxx(x) there's some restricted choice argument that if he had Jxx(x) of diamonds as well he'd lead that half the time instead therefore making it more likely that E has the diamond J? Or maybe this partnership really likes leading unsupported honor cards? Sorry I don't speak crazy lead.
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Since W led the heart J from Jxx(x) there's some restricted choice argument that if he had Jxx(x) of diamonds as well he'd lead that half the time instead therefore making it more likely that E has the diamond J? Or maybe this partnership really likes leading unsupported honor cards? Sorry I don't speak crazy lead.

But there's a restricted choice argument in the other direction. The fact that he makes a strange lead makes it more likely he has Jxx in the other unbid suit - i.e. he made the odd lead because he had no choice but to lead from an undesirable suit.

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I just wanna know whether u should go on instinct, which was RHO is full of it and doesn't hold the J, or whether u should play him for an honest lead here and hook the J the other way. Strong table feel is that he's full of it and LHO has the J, but playing with a client would u hook RHO for the J anyway or take the non-book approach?
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I just wanna know whether u should go on instinct, which was RHO is full of it and doesn't hold the J, or whether u should play him for an honest lead here and hook the J the other way. Strong table feel is that he's full of it and LHO has the J, but playing with a client would u hook RHO for the J anyway or take the non-book approach?

Who says RHO's Q must be an honest card? With QJ he can safely play the J as well (his partner will never waste K)... So technically, restricted choice applies and I'd place J with LHO.

 

About following your instinct: you should keep stats about this. If after a while your instinct seems right more often than not, start trusting it. If it's wrong more often, then never trust it.

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Given the play to-date, declarer has shown 4 or more s, 3 s, leaving 6 or fewer cards in minors. Only reason why RHO didn't safely exit a trump is that he must have the stiff Q or Qx and probably three trumps. He's probably looking at nothing in s, which makes it reasonable to hope that declarer has some values in s and partner has some stuff in pointed suits. Partner must have Kx or Ax of s in addition to King of s in which case you will beat this hand a trick. Not quite sure why he thinks it's so important to beat the hand and give up an over-trick or simplify declarer's guess in s when his defense doesn't work. My guess is that RHO is probably a better rubber Bridge or IMP player.
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