Bussy Posted December 9, 2011 Report Share Posted December 9, 2011 Hi there, Your hand (South): ♠ 1096♥ K1085♦ Q964♣ 98 Bidding goes (East=Dealer / non-vul vs. vul.): 1 ♠ - Pass - 2 ♣ - Pass2 ♥ - Pass - 4 ♠ - 4 NTPass - 5 ♦ - 5 ♠ - PassPass - Pass Which card do you lead? 2 ♣ = natural/ 11+4 NT = minors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted December 9, 2011 Report Share Posted December 9, 2011 I'll guess a trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted December 9, 2011 Report Share Posted December 9, 2011 I doubt that a trump will ever do any good. Dummy has at least 4 trumps and may have 5, but didn't splinter, or J2N. So I'd place him with about 11 or 12, with extra trump and two hearts. 4=2=2=5 makes sense and maybe even 5=2=2=4. I'm not saying he needs to be these shapes, but we do have to make some assumptions when choosing a lead and these are the assumptions I am making at this point. I think I have a heart trick. I don't see how a club could be necessary at this stage....if we were defending 4♠, I think there is a better case that a club might promote our 4th trick, but we only need 3. And a club could be a disaster if rho is 5=5=2=1 and LHO has something like Kxxxx xx Jx AKxx. Since LHO bid 5♠ knowing that a club lead was possible, and we could well be short, since we bid 5♦, I'd tend to place him with at least the club A. So I lead a diamond...whatever my conventional card from Qxxx is. Btw, while I lead a diamond here at any scoring, it is generally a good idea to identify the scoring. Our goals at mps can be quite different than our goals at imps, and this can influence the lead (as well as the bidding and the inferences one can draw therefrom). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted December 9, 2011 Report Share Posted December 9, 2011 2♣ bidder was joking because he didn´t want a club lead, smart partner unfolded the psyche, so take advantage of it and lead a club Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted December 12, 2011 Report Share Posted December 12, 2011 I would lead a ♣ all the time, it's through strength and to partner's suit. Leading ♦ gives us only a small chance of creating a trick, since I expect partner to have at least 5 ♦s and they probably won't split 2-2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gszes Posted December 12, 2011 Report Share Posted December 12, 2011 the hand seems badly placed for the oppsthey have no running suits and their bestchance for 11 tricks would seem to be via crossruff. P may indeed have good clubsbut that alone probably wont help us set this hand. My vote is for small trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diejowae Posted December 12, 2011 Report Share Posted December 12, 2011 Small ♥ hope Partner two cards ♥ + Ace ( ♥Ax ) and trump 3-th heart.OR hope partner void heart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WellSpyder Posted December 12, 2011 Report Share Posted December 12, 2011 So it only takes 6 posts to get at least one supporter for each suit..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2011 Report Share Posted December 12, 2011 When I looked at this initially I thought, trump, WTP? After reading the other posts, nothing convinces me this is a bad idea. On a good day, we will get the chance to lead three rounds although partner may need to be up to unblocking his ♥Jx on the 2nd round of trump. My 2nd choice is a club not because I think they are jobbing me (@Fluffy - what kind of hand psyches 2♣ consistent with this bidding?), but because it might take partner off a late endplay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bussy Posted December 13, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2011 Hi! Tx for your answers. Here is the deal from our club tourney. There is just one killing lead... but can you really find it?I don't know why, but West never have shown his ♥'s. I usually dont like trump leads, here I have chosen a useless trump lead. Is there a scientific way to find the killing lead? Or it is just luck? Regards Bussy [hv=pc=n&s=st96hkt85dq964c98&w=sk42hq742da2ckqjt&n=s5h6dkjt87ca76543&e=saqj873haj93d53c2&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=1sp2c(nat.%2011+)p2hp4s4n(minors)p5d5s(%3F)ppp]399|300[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted December 13, 2011 Report Share Posted December 13, 2011 Sorry, but even GIB can't find the killing lead. :rolleyes: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted December 13, 2011 Report Share Posted December 13, 2011 There is nothing worse than a lead problem in a hand you already lost in the bidding. I would lead a trump without conviction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 Diamond seems clear. To me at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 (@Fluffy - what kind of hand psyches 2♣ consistent with this bidding?) Any hand with 5 (4) spades and doubleton club, either xx or Ax. Kxx and xxx are also possible, I do this kind of bids all the time whith minimum GF values to give clients who want results over learning an edge over the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P_Marlowe Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 Clubs? Partner bid them, and they were bid by dummy. Do I expect to make lots of clubs? No - But I try to collect all tricksout side trumps as fast as possibe, and clubs needs to be played from my side. With kind regardsMarlowe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dake50 Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 Does they're not in 6S suggest D-doubleton or C-doubleton in their long spades hand?I think a club doubleton would slam thisafter partner's club suit shown. Lead a Diamond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 Hi! Tx for your answers. Here is the deal from our club tourney. There is just one killing lead... but can you really find it?I don't know why, but West never have shown his ♥'s. I usually dont like trump leads, here I have chosen a useless trump lead. Is there a scientific way to find the killing lead? Or it is just luck? Regards Bussy [hv=pc=n&s=st96hkt85dq964c98&w=sk42hq742da2ckqjt&n=s5h6dkjt87ca76543&e=saqj873haj93d53c2&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=1sp2c(nat.%2011+)p2hp4s4n(minors)p5d5s(%3F)ppp]399|300[/hv]Pardon me for being dense, but what is the killing lead? It seems that 11 tricks (no more, no less) are cold on any lead (pardon me - 12 tricks can be made on a heart lead). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted December 19, 2011 Report Share Posted December 19, 2011 Pardon me for being dense, but what is the killing lead? It seems that 11 tricks (no more, no less) are cold on any lead (pardon me - 12 tricks can be made on a heart lead). Correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted December 20, 2011 Report Share Posted December 20, 2011 40% to west for the bidding and 60% to the OP for posting this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bussy Posted December 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2011 Pardon me for being dense, but what is the killing lead? It seems that 11 tricks (no more, no less) are cold on any lead (pardon me - 12 tricks can be made on a heart lead). Sorry, my fault. West did not hold 10 of ♣. North did. So East cant discard all his ♥-losers on ♣. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrAce Posted December 20, 2011 Report Share Posted December 20, 2011 Sorry, my fault. West did not hold 10 of ♣. North did. So East cant discard all his ♥-losers on ♣. Then Mikeh nailed it. ♦ is the killa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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