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Over 3D preempt in balancing at MP's


kgr

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At imps, 3N without hesitation, but wondering what to do if RHO reopens with a double (I'd probably sit).

 

At mps, however, there is a lot more to be said for passing. In essence, passing is a bet that we can't make anything that we are likely to be able to bid.

 

If we think that we are more likely to fail in 3N than to make....or that we are likely to fail in anything partner puts us in after 3N...then the mp call is pass.....we are probably going plus even when partner has a weak hand, and if they make 3, we are likely going for a number if we bid.

 

So: how likely are we to have a plus score by bidding?

 

LHO is red v white....it is likely that he holds AKxxxxx in diamonds. We are ok, in terms of diamonds, if it is rho who is short rather than partner. 50% of the time, rho will have 2+ (alth when he has 3, maybe partner can get us to a rounded suit....or even a playable spade contract).

 

Partner rates to hold about 8 hcp or so, and they rate to be working points, in that most of the non-diamond defensive values will be held by RHO.

 

So I think we rate to make 3N most of the time when rho is short in diamonds, and may have 9 tricks available even when he isn't (or, as suggested above, a reachable and playable alternative.....partner couldn't bid over 3 with something like QJ109xxx Axx x Qx but has an easy 4 call over our 3N)

 

Accordingly, I bid 3N even at mps.

 

I could have simply said 'ditto', I guess :P

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No, Pass would have worked better than 4!

 

Amen. 3NT is obvious, though a conservative pass might work on these colors. But North's 4 is really poor. Assume South is balanced, and North is expecting a weak 6-2 fit with the trumps likely to split badly. This can't be wise--and 3NT doesn't guarantee a balanced hand, just the ability to make 3NT opposite some useful cards. The reason South didn't double is that he couldn't stand a spade response. On a different South hand with spade support, double stands out--it might get us to 4 or 4 when it's right, or North may have a good penalty pass.

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Bidding 4 over 3NT is awful. With Txx in on this bidding, clearly there are going to be ruffs (unless N is somehow hoping West can't ever get in to play a if east is void) and with trumps often splitting badly these ruff(s) might not even cost the defenders a natural trump trick. As others have pointed out, 3NT is just hoping to make if partner can supply some useful cards.
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I would have passed a white vs red. Might be tempted at red. I dont have the diamond suit controlled in 3N, if lho has AK to some number. Also partner might well have 6S and transfer to 4S and I wont be happy. Again the lack of control in the diamond suit will leave 4S vulnerable even when partners spades are good.
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Jack 2.04 (old version) seems to always Pass iso bid 3NT in balancing.

But some additional notes:

- This was a Pairs Tournament I loaded, but if I look at the scoring options in Jack then I see:

- - Total Points

- - Rubber

- - Chicago : What is Chicago?

(So I'm not sure it knows MP's, or is that Chicago?)

- After the 3NT: Jack in North Passes when Opps are N-Vul and bids 4S when opps are Vuln. It seems that Jack assumes a better D-hand for 3D when West is Vuln and therefor bids 4S when opps are Vuln?

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Jack 2.04 (old version) seems to always Pass iso bid 3NT in balancing.

But some additional notes:

- This was a Pairs Tournament I loaded, but if I look at the scoring options in Jack then I see:

- - Total Points

- - Rubber

- - Chicago : What is Chicago?

(So I'm not sure it knows MP's, or is that Chicago?)

- After the 3NT: Jack in North Passes when Opps are N-Vul and bids 4S when opps are Vuln. It seems that Jack assumes a better D-hand for 3D when West is Vuln and therefor bids 4S when opps are Vuln?

Chicago is four-deal bridge. Both sides are nonvul on the first hand, dealer's side is vul on the 2nd and 3rd hands, and both sides are vul on the fourth hand. The original version of Chicago is scored like rubber bridge, with part-scores carrying over from deal to deal (100 point bonus for a part score after 4 hands), but newer versions score each deal like duplicate bridge.

 

There is a variation of Chicago where the non-dealer's side is vul on the 2nd or 3rd hand. I forgot the reason for that variation.

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On the hand given it is not right to bid 4S over 3N. Partner may easily have just a good club suit and cashing tricks. He refused double for a reason. Either he has really good diamond stop or he has short in one major. Can easily imagine that Jack has difficulty simulating hands with condtions like "has a single stop with cashing clubs or a very good stop with softer values or has a poor stop but only because major shortage rules out dble".
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