4 little spades

[mich-b]

[hv=pc=n&e=s9432h85d753cq832&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=p4hdp]133|200[/hv]

Teams. All players are experts.

You have no special agreements about the double (it's not penalty, somewhere between "takeout" and "cards").

Do you bid 4♠ or pass? How close do you think this is?

[paulg]

I'd pass but would seriously consider 4♠. In fact so seriously that I've swapped my answer in writing this response.

 

If partner doubled slowly, I'd probably do the same because it's very unclear what partner is thinking about, especially in the time available at the table to work it out. He could have a strong 22(45), any hand with four spades and a six-card minor, or a balanced 20 count with doubleton spade.

 

Actually, when you do consider it most slow doubles are due to lack of spade support, so pass is slightly suggested by a hesitation so I should bid 4♠ in that instance. If I had the time at the table to work it out (easier now I've done this of course).

[Free]

I think it's a clear pass, you want to go for -1100?

[mich-b]

I think it's a clear pass, you want to go for -1100?

 

While I am not saying that Pass is worse than bidding , but -1100 is not much worse than -790 or -990, scores for which they have to do nothing more (in the bidding), while for them to score 1100 they do need to be able to double.

[mcphee]

Double is for take out, and 4S sure appears to be the move. If I went for 1100 on this hand partner did not have a double or someone had 100 honors is trump 5 times.

 

Some days players hold AKxx x AQxx AJxx and make this take out dble and passing 4H dbled to me is not in the program.

[Trinidad]

Double is for take out, and 4S sure appears to be the move. If I went for 1100 on this hand partner did not have a double or someone had 100 honors is trump 5 times.

 

Some days players hold AKxx x AQxx AJxx and make this take out dble and passing 4H dbled to me is not in the program.

It can be worse: He might hold: ♠AKxx ♥- ♦AQxx ♣AJxxx.

 

Nevertheless, 4♥ rates to go down and 4♠ is unlikely to make.

 

Dare I bring up the Law of Total Tricks?

 

I dont't really care whether trumps = tricks in this case. But I know that, most of the time, the total number of tricks doesn't really change with the location of honors. In other words, when we get a trick more in our contract, we would likely also have gotten a trick more on defense. The same holds for the opponents. I would estimate that the total number of tricks would be 17, but I may be wrong and it may be 18. (My estimate is based on total trumps, the duplication of shortness in partner's hand opposite mine and gut feeling.)

 

Let's score:

18 total tricks:

Our tricks in 4♠   Theirs in 4♥X  Result if we bid and they pass at the other table

11 (+650)               7 (+800)            -150: -4 IMP

10 (+620)               8 (+500)            +120: +3 IMP

 9 (-100)               9 (+200)            -300: -7 IMP

 8* (-500)             10 (-790)            +290: +7 IMP

 7 (-800)              11 (-890)             +90: +3 IMP

*They start doubling

 

Conclusion: Hard to say which one is right.

 

17 total tricks:

Our tricks in 4♠   Theirs in 4♥X  Result if we bid and they pass at the other table

11 (+650)               6 (+1100)           -450: -10 IMP

10 (+620)               7 (+800)            -180:  -5 IMP

 9 (-100)               8 (+500)            -600: -12 IMP

 8* (-500)              9 (+200)            -700: -12 IMP

 7 (-800)              10 (-790)             -10:   0 IMP

 6 (-1100)             11 (-890)            -210:  -5 IMP

Conclusion: Easy to say passing is right.

 

And now over to the next chapter because there is another way to lose lots of IMPs if you bid 4♠:

In this, I have assumed that partner will pass if we bid 4♠. But I could easily imagine that on the hands where we have 10 tricks and can make 4♠, partner might get us to the five level. This leads to -100 where we would have gotten a juicy penalty, if only I would have been happy with what I had, rather than hope and wish for something better. In that case, the decision to bid costs us 600 (instead of winning 120) or 900 (instead of losing 180).

In short, bidding 4♠ only wins if they can make 4♥X and there are 18 total tricks.

 

Rik

[MrAce]

Auto pass.

 

I find it amusing when people create insta 4135 4045 monsters for pd's DBL (and they make sure pd's 5 card suit is our 4 card Qxxx) . These are the AT BEST what u can find hands.. There are also a lot more hands that he doubles with.

 

I wonder what do their pd bid with hands like

 

 

AJx Ax AKxx Kxxx

 

AQT Qx AQxxx Axx

 

AKJx x AKxx Jxxx

 

KQx x AJxxxx AKx

 

etc

 

There is no guarantee that pass will win, but i believe it is the winner in long run and not even close. Now those who lean towards bidding here assumes that opponents preempts are very predictable just like their own style in forums where you know almost always how many cards he opened with and that he has the perfect texture, if possible a side 4 or 5 card suit...etc. If the opponents were preempting in such a predictable manner, hell, i would probably wanna bid too.

 

But in real life we see people open 4♥ with AKJxxxxxxx ♥ and out, as well as we see xx AKJxxx JTxxx void and as well as Axx QJTxxxxx x x

 

I wouldnt be surprised to see Kx or Ax or K stiff A stiff in pd's hand in ♥ suit.

[Phil]

No bid.

[TylerE]

4♠. This double is takeout right? I'd need to be like 4-4 in the majors to considering passing here. Our length in non-heart suits makes our hand worse for passing, not better.

[ggwhiz]

No bid.

 

My partner understands when they make it but I'm not allowed to pull unless I at least think 4♠ MIGHT make.

 

I don't.