Card selection logic

[myprac]

This is a followup to my earlier discussion about GIB needlessly throwing away winning cards. I want to add the following example because it's perhaps a bit clearer than the others we looked at:

 

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At trick 3, North plays the jack of trumps under the king. Unlike the examples we discussed earlier, in this hand South and West have both shown out, so GIB (operating here in dumb bot mode) "knows" the full distribution of the suit at this point, and the jack cannot possibly be equivalent to the deuce. Playing the jack cannot be a deceptive play (declarer also knows the full distribution of the suit) or an unblocking play, and it isn't a signal to partner. As far as I can see, this is a play with no possible upside.

 

GIB's underlying logic appears to be to make the more expensive play (a higher nonequivalent card, or an unnecessary underruffing play), or at least permit itself to do so, unless it sees a downside to the play. I can't help wondering if there's a way to turn that logic around, so that GIB plays the more expensive card only when that play produces a better result in a majority of its simulations.

[myprac]

Here's another one, throwing a trump winner on trick 6:

 

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