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Matchpoint high level decision


EricK

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It would be good to know a little more about the range of 1N, especially in light of the second question, but even with only what is known:

 

At this vulnerability, I am passing 4. A double by partner would be very surprising. I would usually pass such a double, but that's because my partner will have an unusual holding for such a double....AKx or AQJ in trump or some such or QJ10 and a max. On auctions like this, our pass wasn't remotely penalty and only bad players double here just because they have 8-10 hcp.

 

At equal or favourable vulnerability, I would bid 5 over 4 directly.

 

They hold about half the deck. RHO has a source of tricks. We have, assuming partner isn't a pig, at least 9 and probably 10 clubs. Any heart card partner has, other than the Ace, is worthless even if we pass the hand out......declarer will always hook partner on this auction, and there will be adequate dummy entries.

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How bad can the 1nt be? What would 2 show? Does he show a 4333 or 5332 hand with length?

 

I'm bidding 5, I am assuming that parter cannot have a 4 card suit other than clubs which means about 20 tricks available to both sides, if they are making 1 off is a good score, if they are 1 off then 5c makes.

 

I think at this vunerability 5 is clear, at Green V Red the temptation to pass and try for +200/+500 is greater and if partner is 8-10 then I will pass.

 

At equal vul I think I still bid 5

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How bad can the 1nt be? What would 2 show? Does he show a 4333 or 5332 hand with length?

 

I'm bidding 5, I am assuming that parter cannot have a 4 card suit other than clubs which means about 20 tricks available to both sides, if they are making 1 off is a good score, if they are 1 off then 5c makes.

 

I think at this vunerability 5 is clear, at Green V Red the temptation to pass and try for +200/+500 is greater and if partner is 8-10 then I will pass.

 

At equal vul I think I still bid 5

The LOTT breaks down often on freaks. I surely wouldn't expect to beat this very often. And partner doesn't need 4 clubs...with 3=3=4=3 and 8-10 with stuff in the majors, he should bid 1N to define his vslues. KJx Kxx Qxxx xxx is 1N, not 1...that hand will not play well in 5 and S may have an easy double.

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P is prob 3334 or thereabouts with scattered values. Can't see us getting close to making 5 so it looks a poor sac at this vul. At fav I'd bid 5; at equal it's more tricky tho prob pass - P is still there. I have some defence, and if P doubles I'd leave it in. I have some hope of defeating 4. Only some of this is clear-cut - pass right now is. LoTT is almost precisely 20, but this looks like a hand where it could fall over. You could bid 5 and hope opps bid 5 over it, but I'd give them more respect. -500 could be 0% compared to -450, and to some extent we are fixed already.
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Further thoughts:

 

Most of the non- honors will be between P and LHO, giving P overcards, and thus some chance that 5 might actually make - e.g. give P as little as KJx-xxx-Qxx-xxxx and 5 just needs a 2-1 break if everything else is onside as is likely (or bolster P's hand with Q to counter a likely 3-0 break, or just throw in K instead). It's probably well below 50% for that to be the case, whilst for the same reason (P's overcards) I think 4 will struggle, so I want to defend.

 

At different vulnerabilities 4 will be more sound. Game all may be different to love all. What was the actual hand?

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The actual hand is kind of irrelevant as partner did not have what anybody (myself included) would consider a 1NT response. For one thing he had QJT9! North didn't really have a 4 bid either - 7 to the King a void and some scattered honours in the other suits. I chose to bid 5 which wasn't a success. Although I don't think 4 could have gone more than 1 down, so we were destined for a bad result anyway: 4*-1 would have allowed us to beat the pair who defended 4 undoubled; everyone else was making a contract our way (3 or some number of NT)
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