Just another decision

[MrAce]

[hv=pc=n&s=sqj654h642d64ckj2&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=1hp2hd3c3s4hpp]133|200[/hv]

 

Team game

[CSGibson]

[hv=pc=n&s=sqj654h642d64ckj2&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=1hp2hd3c3s4hpp]133|200[/hv]

 

Team game

 

I'm leading trump.

[benlessard]

Id like to ask what is 3C and what would 2nt instead mean ?

 

I lead a trumps but it wouldnt surprise me to that the odds of losing our S trick are greater than the odd of removing enough clubs ruffs. VG problem IMO

[gnasher]

Pass - partner can bid his own hand. Then lead a trump.

 

it wouldnt surprise me to that the odds of losing our S trick are greater than the odd of removing enough clubs ruffs

For that to happen, dummy will have to have fast diamond winners. That doesn't seem very likely given the bidding, but if that is position I don't see how we're going to beat this.

[andy_h]

I'd have overcalled 1♠

[Fluffy]

Also lead a trump, feel like we told our story.

[benlessard]

DD sim giving east 3+ clubs a S lead is better. Giving East 4+clubs take a lot more randomize hands (wich mean that in the 3+ clubs hand most of them have exactly 3c) to get but here are the results. It took 20.5 millions hand to get 1000

 

 

DD 4H makes 53% -- the winning lead are 409 QJs ---375 lowS ---391 H ----379 D

 

[aguahombre]

Id like to ask what is 3C and what would 2nt instead mean ?

Don't think I want to know right now, since I am passing anyway; it might be of value to find out how dummy interpreted it and whether declarer meant it that way, but since I am passing and leading a trump anyway, nothing good can come of the question ---and perhaps something bad, like UI.

[MrAce]

Sorry, must be my bad, was not clear of course.

 

I was more interested in bidding. The lead does not matter on the actual deal.

[aguahombre]

Yeh, Timo. I took the comments of posters about leading as a subtle way of saying "hell, no" re: bidding. Your post was clearly not asking about what to lead.

[MrAce]

I was the North player.

 

I held something like (cant remember spots)

 

ATxx

QJ

KJxx

Qxx

 

Declarer had

 

xx

AKxxx

x

Axxxx

 

And dummy had

 

Kx

T98

AQxxxx

xx

 

My problem was even more interesting, my pd decided to DBL 4♥, and led trump. -790

[gnasher]

DD sim giving east 3+ clubs a S lead is better. Giving East 4+clubs take a lot more randomize hands (wich mean that in the 3+ clubs hand most of them have exactly 3c) to get but here are the results. It took 20.5 millions hand to get 1000

Results of that sort don't have much value unless they're accompanied by details of the constraints that you used, so that we can consider how closely your simulation matches reality.

 

Simulating this auction seems quite a complex task, because at least two players have made decisions that depend on a lot of things. For example, if I were West, deciding whether to bid 4♥ over 3♠, I would be considering (not necessarily in this order):

- My overall high-card strength.

- How well my club holding fits partner's game try.

- My heart holding, in the context of what I expect partner to have to do in the club suit.

- My spade and diamond holdings for offensive purposes, given the takeout double on my left.

- My defensive prospects against 3♠ and 4♠.

- How much wastage I have in spades and to a lesser extent diamonds, and how that bears on the values I expect the enemy to have elsewhere.

[the hog]

No 1S overcall? Did I forget to bid? Anyway, I am passing now.

[benlessard]

Results of that sort don't have much value unless they're accompanied by details of the constraints that you used, so that we can consider how closely your simulation matches reality.

 

I somewhat agree, but from a practical point of view i wont put too much effort in something where there is consensus, I expected them to be close and they are so unless someone is clearly convinced that H is significantly better than S or vice versa i just dont see the point. What is more important IMO is that EW are red against white in a position where they will bid 4H very liberally (after a 3S bid that is an invite to sacrifice ...passing 3C and bidding 3S over 3H is an NS option). It may induce opps to sac at 4S or they make 3S.

 

 

In short ive remove north having 4S and void in H and removed West having a super S holdings, ive given slightly extra values to E and to West. I get a 53% making so it mean that i wasnt too chicken or too agressive and a quick look at the 100 first hand i saw nothing abnormal.