BunnyGo Posted November 16, 2011 Report Share Posted November 16, 2011 You find yourself in a tenuous 6♠ contract. Dummy: AT8, T5, K7, QJ8753 Hand: KQ62, AKQ96, Q, AT6 Lead is club 4, Q, K, A Now what? I think the hand just comes down to picking up the spades, what's the right way to play it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted November 16, 2011 Report Share Posted November 16, 2011 Without any other information, I would play ♠A and then ♠K, in case the ♠J falls. If the ♠J does not fall, I would continue with the ♠Q. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted November 16, 2011 Report Share Posted November 16, 2011 I don't pretend to be a great declarer, but are we asking whether exactly Jack 4th in front of the ten is more likely than any of the distributions where ACE and King works? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexJonson Posted November 16, 2011 Report Share Posted November 16, 2011 K and then A (if no marked finesse), then Q(if J hasn't shown) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BunnyGo Posted November 16, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2011 I don't pretend to be a great declarer, but are we asking whether exactly Jack 4th in front of the ten is more likely than any of the distributions where ACE and King works? Yes, I suppose I could instead ask for the best way to pick up the trump suit for no losers (as that's necessary to make the slam, and all that's necessary). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted November 16, 2011 Report Share Posted November 16, 2011 Yes, I suppose I could instead ask for the best way to pick up the trump suit for no losers (as that's necessary to make the slam, and all that's necessary).O.K., then I should have said I think exactly jack 4th onside is less likely than 3-3 spades, even before adding Jack dropping on the other side. I could be wrong. Other cases where the finesse of the ten works break even when we play one honor from each hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyman Posted November 16, 2011 Report Share Posted November 16, 2011 Plus if you play for 3-3 spades and miss, you have the added chance of RHO 4=3=3=3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted November 16, 2011 Report Share Posted November 16, 2011 Plus if you play for 3-3 spades and miss, you have the added chance of RHO 4=3=3=3.I wonder about that one. LHO would have ten reds and it might be hard to bring in the hearts since we can't get back to finish the clubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyman Posted November 16, 2011 Report Share Posted November 16, 2011 I wonder about that one. LHO would have ten reds and it might be hard to bring in the hearts since we can't get back to finish the clubs. ? AKQ of spades, now 10, J 8 of clubs, pitching a diamond. RHO can ruff or not. Hearts are breaking by design so wtp? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted November 16, 2011 Report Share Posted November 16, 2011 No, I meant the likelihood of East being 4X3 or JX in hearts given his partner has ten reds...but it is a chance to be calculated into the odds of the two different spade plays, and a little bit more in favor of the drop in trumps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyman Posted November 16, 2011 Report Share Posted November 16, 2011 No, I meant the likelihood of East being 4X3 or JX in hearts given his partner has ten reds...but it is a chance to be calculated into the odds of the two different spade plays. Oh for sure it's slim and not worth (seriously) considering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted November 17, 2011 Report Share Posted November 17, 2011 If there is no other information then we all know what the best way to play the trump suit is. But we do have extra information, the club lead looks a lot like a singleton! If we finesse spades, then we win against Jxxx-xx onside but lose against xxx-Jxx offside. Note that that's exactly equally many holdings in the spade suit. What's more likely, a given 4-2 spade split or a given 3-3 spade split? www.rpbridge.net tells us that each specific 4-2 split has 1.9903% chance and each specific 3-3 split has 1.7691% chance. So, we should finesse in spades! Or should we? A defender holding Jxxx of trumps would be much less inclined to lead a singleton than a defender holding xxx. Jxxx is often a trump trick (especially when the opponents are in a 4-3 fit!). So I think we should still play for the drop. By the way, there are more issues on this hand. For example, a defender would less likely lead a singleton against a slam holding an ace, especially after a keycards auction. After all, if they hold an ace, their partner cannot hold an ace, and leading a singleton is less likely to gain and can easily give away the layout. So maybe we should also place the ace of diamonds with west, which makes the empty spaces 12-9, which would make the finesse even more the percentage play! (In this case 21.9% vs 17.0%.) Or maybe west has xxx of clubs and is trying to give his partner a ruff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted November 17, 2011 Report Share Posted November 17, 2011 Sorry, since Bunny said the hand comes down to picking up the spades I didn't look at chances for making this when you misguess spades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted November 17, 2011 Report Share Posted November 17, 2011 han my first inclination was that all i know about this hand is that clubs are obv 2-2 given that RHO covered. No one is covering the Q with K92. Of course, depends how bad your RHO is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BunnyGo Posted November 17, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2011 Plus if you play for 3-3 spades and miss, you have the added chance of RHO 4=3=3=3. I hadn't considered this, very cute. If we finesse spades, then we win against Jxxx-xx onside but lose against xxx-Jxx offside. Note that that's exactly equally many holdings in the spade suit. What's more likely, a given 4-2 spade split or a given 3-3 spade split? www.rpbridge.net tells us that each specific 4-2 split has 1.9903% chance and each specific 3-3 split has 1.7691% chance. So, we should finesse in spades! This was my thought process. Sadly spades were 3=3 with Jxx offsides. Sorry, since Bunny said the hand comes down to picking up the spades I didn't look at chances for making this when you misguess spades. Sorry...hadn't considered the 4=3=3=3 situation. I thought the whole thing came down to picking up the trump suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyman Posted November 17, 2011 Report Share Posted November 17, 2011 han my first inclination was that all i know about this hand is that clubs are obv 2-2 given that RHO covered. No one is covering the Q with K92. Of course, depends how bad your RHO is. My (present) inability to make inferences like this is one of many reasons I am not (presently) good at bridge. Very nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted November 17, 2011 Report Share Posted November 17, 2011 My (present) inability to make inferences like this is one of many reasons I am not (presently) good at bridge. Very nice. Meh, this one is just pattern recognition/experience. As you play often against non-terrible opps you will just assume when the Q is covered in a spot like this it is Kx, it's not like I actually thought about it it's just a standard pattern if you play enough hands to see it many times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted November 17, 2011 Report Share Posted November 17, 2011 This was my thought process. Sadly spades were 3=3 with Jxx offsides. FWIW I think the inference that LHO wouldn't lead a singleton as often holding Jxxx is bigger than these marginal probability arguments. I like the point about clubs being 2-2 because RHO covered, but, assuming that dummy has shown clubs, I don't see LHO leading from a doubleton very often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted November 17, 2011 Report Share Posted November 17, 2011 on all your posts here han I miss you talking about east having ♠Jx, did I overlook something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted November 18, 2011 Report Share Posted November 18, 2011 I think I did! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wackojack Posted November 19, 2011 Report Share Posted November 19, 2011 I think everything that should have been said has already been said, but in a haphazard sort of way. So here I try to put it all together neatly. Trump suit only considered 3-3 break 35.5%4-2 break = 48.5%. This will be Jx either side 1/3 of the time = 16.2% Playing for the drop = 51.7% Finesse = 0.5 of 3-3 +4-2 breaks = 42% So play for the drop gives you about 10% more chance of success than finesse. Play for the drop additional chance When RHO has (3♥ or ♥Jx) and ♠Jxxx, then you get discard of 2 diamonds. The exact chance of this is incalculable as you have to assume the opps distribution in ♣cs. This is subjective and conditioned by the opps ability and temperament. My rough estimation would be about 7%. So overall chance of success about 59%. Trump finesse additional chance You take the finesse and lose but RHO does not return a diamond. Tiny chance I think. So the odds clearly favour playing for the drop in spades. I hope this has covered all angles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexJonson Posted November 20, 2011 Report Share Posted November 20, 2011 Deleted - not right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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