Bid over preempt?

[A2003]

What is the bid here?[hv=pc=n&n=st72haq3daqt5ca82&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=3cpp]266|400[/hv]

[EricK]

I don't know what "the" bid is. My bid is 3NT.

[whereagles]

yeah 3N seems like par

[kenrexford]

Reminds me of a time when I bid 3NT with a stiff spade, 1-3-5-4 shape, because the opponents were white on red. After the non-spade lead, partner having no stopper as I had hoped, I still needed to throw LHO in again to get to 9 tricks. He believed me twice, and I ended up with a line for an even more rewarding 10 tricks. To add insult, I played a non-spade at trick 11, to ensure that the opponents only took two spade tricks.

[aguahombre]

I don't know what "the" bid is. My bid is 3NT.

Well put. I will offer a certain minority action. "The bid" is 3NT. My call is pass.

 

It seems as if the vulnerable IMP odds about bidding and making game, normally a good guide, might not apply here --- offset by the possibility that partner doesn't have the fillers to make 3NT and we could go for a big number instead of a small plus. My hand doesn't provide a trick source, just a few tricks.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Deleted.... Reading-challenged

[aguahombre]

Pls note: we are not Responder.

[MrAce]

My bid is 3NT

[S2000magic]

Another 3NT here.

 

Pass seems quite conservative: partner wouldn't have bid even with 10 - 12 HCP, so we cannot afford to sell out with this much strength. However, I won't be surprised to be congratulating LHO when the play is over. Sometimes preempts work; that's why people still use them.

[Mbodell]

Does it matter at all IMPs versus MP. Because I think the chances 3nt makes are likely worth the IMP odds, but not worth the MP odds.

[the hog]

Another pass here. We have 1 club stopper and no source of tricks.

[S2000magic]

I'd love to see a Monte Carlo simulation of this; I suspect that 3NT makes more than 50% of the time, but cannot lean on more than that suspicion.

[aguahombre]

A sim would be quite draining, IMO. Each hand would have to be examined, not only on whether it makes 3NT, but whether it would incur a bigger vulnerable penalty than defending 3 clubs. If IMPS, the sim would have to be in IMP result, not frequency, over x number of hands.

 

It might also be difficult to agree which of partner's hands would pass in direct seat and still achieve a game bonus in NT ---since 8-card fit exploration is out.

[655321]

Seems like a routine textbook 3NT, don't understand pass.

[aguahombre]

Seems like a routine textbook 3NT, don't understand pass.

You might be correct that it is routine and textbook. I am not convinced that pass is right, and I have misgivings about 3NT. Nothing written in this forum so far, certainly not my own post, has changed that. So, I keep waiting for something to sink my teeth into....more than just that some experts would do one or the other at these colors and at MP or at IMPs.

[the hog]

You might be correct that it is routine and textbook. I am not convinced that pass is right, and I have misgivings about 3NT. Nothing written in this forum so far, certainly not my own post, has changed that. So, I keep waiting for something to sink my teeth into....more than just that some experts would do one or the other at these colors and at MP or at IMPs.

 

I understand 3NT. I just wonder from where my tricks are going to come. A few years ago I would have bid 3NT also. Then I began playing with an ex English International who convinced me that bidding on hands like this is a losing proposition on average.

[whereagles]

There's a case for pass, as pard is likely to have short clubs and didn't act.

 

But I think that's a bit too pessimistic.

[Dutchdwang]

I would never bid 3NT, we don't have any source of tricks..

 

I would pass, and try to score + this way..

[mcphee]

Facing a passed partner who could easily have what I need, basically the 2 red kings and something that resembles a S stop, i still pass. I am making an attempt to see where I might be able to develop 9 tricks so I imagine K 5th in a red suit this brings my wishful trick count 1C and we hope the 5 suit runs and then we will require the other red K to be onside assuming the lead was a C. A spade lead my well shorten my positive outlook a few tricks, although that 10 S seems to boost the confidence of many here. I will take my seat at the back of the class and pass this golden opportunity to go for a major minus.

[MrAce]

This is an interesting game and it always amazes me how people think totally different when looking at a same hand.

 

Source of tricks... Imo people have wrong ideas about this game

 

-People underestimate the power of aces in NT contracts, they often have this VERY poor idea that aces work better in suit contracts. You can easily see people saying funny things that they hate to open 1NT with 4 aces and nothing else. With same excuse...source of tricks. Sorry but LOL

 

-People ignore the fact that when LHO opened a preempt and we have hooks they work better compared to RHO opened the preempt.

 

-People ignore that when LHO opened 3♣ and we hold 3 of them, the chances pd has 5 or 6 or even 7 card suit is way more than other times. It is ironic that same people would not overcall with some hands that i would over a preempt at these colors by pd, and now they also pass over 3♣ with this hand looking at 16 hcp with stopper.

 

-Even it is MP, i do not understand the pass. I mean if u dont wanna play 3 NT then why not DBL ? Jeesus! u have support for all 3 remaining suits, all u have to do is to DBL and pass whatever your pd bids. Playing to NOT lose instead of playing for winning did not achieve anything in any sports known to human kind.

[pooltuna]

These small diagrams and my bad eyes made me look at the auction like it was 3♠ passed to me and I was as a result wondering about all the comments. Now that I see the opening call was 3♣ it makes it more sense. Now I can understand 3NT as well as X. The pass is a bit too pessimistic on this hand esp when you consider that RHO at these colors has in essence a license to steal.

[aguahombre]

I think you mean LHO. RHO has license to nail us if we are wrong.

[mikeh]

I'm used to considering myself a bona fide chicken but even I can't stomach passing here....3N seems obvious. Consider the following non-exhaustive list of factors:

 

-a favourable 1st seat 3♣ can be very, very weak

 

-partner may have a good hand, even opening values, and be unable to act due to shape/club length

 

-we hold Axx in clubs, which allows us to hold up to exhaust RHO of clubs....and LHO will usually not have a side entry that we need to concede

 

-partner may hold a club card

 

-partner may have a trick source

 

-because we wil know a lot about the hand early on, we will form good inferential or explicit counts and may be able to really apply pressure to rho

 

-because of our knowledge, and our holding of tenaces, we will often make more tricks in 3N than one would expect should partner have, say, 6-8 hcp

 

-given that we can't significantly lower partner's expected strength (see earlier point about his being unable to act if he has club length, etc) we can reasonably expect that more times than not, partner will supply about 8 hcp or so

 

-passing means collecting 50 a pop

 

-even if 3N fails, and we have no place to run, rho may be unable to double due to a lack of clubs and/or sure tricks

 

I don't double because this hand screams notrump. We definitely don't want to play, for example, 4♠ on a 5-3 fit.