Best option to guarantee 6

[42]

Hi :rolleyes:

 

Here is a slam where one has several options to make it. Which one is the best / second best / ... and why?

How do you play the trumps?

 

6♦ by South

Lead: ♥ 5 (no further advice what that means)

 

[hv=pc=n&s=s9hj2djt842cakqj8&n=saq2haqt87dak65c3]133|200[/hv]

[ArtK78]

Here is my very quick reaction to this problem:

 

♥A.

 

♦A and K. If the ♦Q is still outstanding, then run the clubs hoping to get rid of all four hearts from dummy before the hand with the ♦Q can ruff in.

 

If the clubs don't break but the opp showing out doesn't ruff, then you can't dispose of all four hearts from dummy. So you fall back on the spade finesse.

 

An interesting problem might develop on the run of the clubs. Suppose the player with the ♦Q drops the 10 and 9 of clubs on the first three rounds of clubs. Do you play these to be honest cards? If so, you have to fall back on the spade finesse.

 

Second best line? ♥A, A and K of diamonds and, if the ♦Q is still out, take the spade finesse.

 

Third best line? Immediate heart finesse.

 

I suppose that someone might demonstrate that the spade finesse is superior to running the clubs. But those two lines are clearly 1 and 2 - I am just not sure of the order.

[flametree]

Thoughts...

 

Did the lead hit the table quickly (ie, possible singleton) ?

 

Is leader cunning enough to lead away from KH and put you to a guess at trick one?

 

Not a trump lead. Not a spade lead. Hmmm.

 

Also, is this imps or matchpoints? Does it matter if I go 2-light rather than just 1?

 

Anyway... having given all that due consideration I am probably now no better off, so I shrug and start playing!

 

AH (in case west led a singleton).

AK of trumps and if the Q doesn't come down,

Cross to a club, think for a while and take the spade finesse.

 

The spade finesse is 50-50; I think playing for a club split with the shorter club hand not having the third trump is going to be slightly less than that isn't it?

[Free]

♥A is clearly best, followed by ♦AK (unless trumps appear to be 4-0, in which case I can play trumps for 0 losers for sure). If the Q is still out, then I would take the ♠ finesse, hoping to get rid of my ♥ loser in my hand. I think it has a bigger chance (50%) of hoping for 4+♣ in the hand with ♦Qxx (<50% based on vacant places), but that doesn't take the lead into account (if it's singleton, then playing on ♣ has a slightly better chance).

 

Imo this is not a beginner/intermediate topic, it's quite advanced.

[ArtK78]

After my initial post above, I gave the problem some more thought, and I decided that the spade finesse was better than trying to run the clubs if the AK of diamonds fails to drop the Q. I thought I edited my response, but I see that I did not.

 

In any event, the spade finesse is best, followed by running the clubs. The finesse of the heart Q at trick 1 is definitely 3rd best.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

After my initial post above, I gave the problem some more thought, and I decided that the spade finesse was better than trying to run the clubs if the AK of diamonds fails to drop the Q. I thought I edited my response, but I see that I did not.

 

In any event, the spade finesse is best, followed by running the clubs. The finesse of the heart Q at trick 1 is definitely 3rd best.

I thought you had it right the first time.

 

The opp with the sure trump trick needs to have 4 cards Cl of 4-3 outstanding , or a 31% probability whereas the Sp finesse is 50%.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

EDIT: Can you derive something from playing a few rounds of Cl first before the possible Sp finesse ?

Would the opps dare to show COUNT ? If they did, and the opp with the trump Q showed an ODD # of Clubs ( and confirmed by the other opp showing an EVEN # ) , then you have to fall back on the Sp finesse .

Edited November 2, 2011 by TWO4BRIDGE

[pooltuna]

While none of the replies complained about the lack of an auction. It could be a critical component of how to play the hand. Even a non competitive auction lets the responders to your post know what the information outflow is to the defenders and which could impact how they defend.

[Fluffy]

you have to read something from the lead, but I think best line will anyway be to win ♥A, test diamonds and go for ♠ finese otherwise.

 

Fredercik, there is no line for zero losers on trumps if they are 4-0.

 

This hand looks familiar to me.

[42]

Thank you!

This hand came up when we made some partnership bidding on BBO - for upcoming team matches. It is fine to reach a slam but then you have to bring it home ;) I therefore invented the virtual ♥ lead which seemed uncomfortable to me. I sometimes have severe problems with playing a hand with several different options / lines. I know I can make it but I also know I can fail by choosing the wrong line, and that is stress, no? This is why I posted it here.

 

@ flametree & two4bridge: I personally would never rely on reading 'correctly' opps (or even partner's) tempo or other manner of playing a card as well as believing their carding in a slam... Even more so when I don't know them well...

 

Our bidding went (Polish Club modified, Dealer North):

1♣................................ 2♦ (gf with 5+ ♦s, if less: support in ♥, exactly 3 cards)

2♥ (18+, 5 ♥s)............... 3♣ (nat. 4+, less than 3 ♥s)

4♦ (RKCB for ♦)............. 4♥ (1, as expected...)

4♠ (♦ Q?)...................... 5♦ (no)

 

From here I bid on to train the bidding, in real life I probably had just bid 6♦ right now although 7 might be feasible since we have 9 trumps with AK)

Would you bid on or stop in 6♦?

 

5♥ (Kings?)...................... 6♣ (not ♠K, not ♥K)

6♦

[flametree]

At matchpoints I'd convert to 6NT, and probably at teams too - as long as south hadn't bid no-trumps earlier in the auction somewhere, since the reason for doing it is to rightside the contract.

 

Easier to say looking at both hands, but if the diamonds aren't running, 6D is just as likely to be down as 6NT. If you've established 30 points between the hands (2/1 bidders would certainly know this) then the insurance of a trump suit shouldn't be needed.

 

6NT seems to have plenty of chances (read "plenty of decisions to make") even against a passive lead, and the defence might hand you the contract at trick one.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

I only mentioned the opps giving ♣COUNT on two leads , because COUNT -- count -- count.... is important to slam defense when 12 tricks may hinge on a possible squeeze . [ The prime Club suit is hidden from defenders in this case so, as such, they might be uninhibited ] .

However, my thoughts about it are flawed.

If the defender with the ♦Q shows an ODD # of Cl, then he has 3 or 5 which won't help you unless he has five and his partner drops the 10, 9 bare.

 

And if he shows an EVEN #, it probably is extremely hard, if not impossible, to know if it is from two or FOUR ( the magic # )...[ the outstanding Cl are 2 4 5 6 7 9 10 ] .