Quickie Poll #2

[pclayton]

[hv=s=s8652haj76dq3caj7]133|100|[/hv]

 

All Vul, IMPS, 12 board match

 

RHO.....You.....LHO.....Pard

Pass.....Pass.....2♥.....Double

Pass.....?

 

Please no editorial comments on the original pass please.

 

Thanks for answering.

[the hog]

3NT. Probably not the best bid but its certainly what I would bid at the table. Can't bid 2NT as that would be lebensohl or scramble. I think 3N is better than 3 or 4 S on this motheaten suit. Hope the tricks are there. Don't really expect this to be easy opposite a normal takeout X, but there is no real alternative.

 

Passing 2H is an poor call, of course. May well make a 2HX with 3NT on ice - a nice double game swing.

[jtfanclub]

I'll perform my usual insanity and pass. They aren't making it, and I'll take the safe 200 or 500 rather than a very iffy shot at 3NT or 4S. This hand looks built for defense, not offense.

 

In my own defense, I will point out that my regular partners are well aware that I convert to penalty on hands like these, so they aren't farting around with a 10 point 4045 hand.

[EricK]

I have voted for 3NT.

 

Pass looks wrong sitting under the 2♥ bidder. The ♠ are very weak, and it would be perverse to insist on them as trumps (especially if partner could be eg 3-1-5-4).

 

Eric

[the hog]

"They aren't making it"

 

Are you sure about that?

 

x

KQT9xx

xxx

xxx

 

xxxx

xx

AKJxx

xx

 

2H is good for them, 3N is on ice for you. Let alone if partner has a void H, and note he does NOT have your 10 count. You may find your partner a bit less happy to make takeout doubles opposite you.

[flytoox]

"They aren't making it"

 

Are you sure about that?

 

x

KQT9xx

xxx

xxx

 

xxxx

xx

AKJxx

xx

 

2H is good for them, 3N is on ice for you. Let alone if partner has a void H, and note he does NOT have your 10 count. You may find your partner a bit less happy to make takeout doubles opposite you.

 

I vote for 3N, but i dont think this will happen. I am not fearing 2HX make, just think 3N will make and score more.

 

Hongjun

 

Hongjun

[Free]

Clear 3NT imo

[daswallow]

3NT for me, go for the 600.

2Hx may pay off sometimes but I think 3NT is long run winner.

[luke warm]

i voted 3nt also... my reasoning is like fly's, i don't really care if 2h makes or not, i think 3nt does too and i think it scores more

[inquiry]

"They aren't making it"

 

Are you sure about that?

 

x

KQT9xx

xxx

xxx

 

xxxx

xx

AKJxx

xx

 

2H is good for them, 3N is on ice for you. Let alone if partner has a void H, and note he does NOT have your 10 count. You may find your partner a bit less happy to make takeout doubles opposite you.

On an inspired diamond lead, they take the first five tricks. I voted for 3NT.

[whereagles]

I'm gonna pass here. Don't like it, but seems better than the alternatives.

 

Consider: pard is short in hearts, so he might have streched to double 2H on an 11-12 count, just for competition's sake. I'm not going to take a shot at 3NT because I don't see where my 9 tricks are coming from. I could bid 3S or some other invitational bid in spades, but I'm weary of heart overruffs.

 

All in all I have the feeling this is one game that won't make (unless pard has a big hand, but then we'll get 800), so I'll take my chances in 2H doubled. I could bid a wimpy 2S, but passing copes for pard having a good hand.

[inquiry]

To the passers, at imps vul, don't you want to bid close games? Where are theire heart honors likely to be? Where are their spade honors likely to be? Hearts behind your, spades behind partners.... So, pass might get them one, two on a good day, but sometimes it will make. 3NT should have some play.

[mr1303]

I play that 2NT (Lebensohl) followed by 3S shows useful values with only 4 spades (a direct 3S would promise 5). Therefore if partner has extras with only 3S, we can get to 3NT. If we stop in 3S here, the chances are we weren't making anything anyway

 

Mark

[whereagles]

The 2NT + 3S is a good way to bid it as well, yes.

 

Ben: I'm not going to let the fear of 2H making interfere with my judgement of the situation :blink: Sure, 3NT should have some play, but consider also the situation where both 3NT and 2H go 1 down: 300, or a 7-imp swing.

[sceptic]

I think if you pass 2hearts x, they are achieving what weak two openers are all about. I would bid 3nt and smile if I went down

[inquiry]

The 2NT + 3S is a good way to bid it as well, yes.

 

Ben: I'm not going to let the fear of 2H making interfere with my judgement of the situation :blink: Sure, 3NT should have some play, but consider also the situation where both 3NT and 2H go 1 down: 300, or a 7-imp swing.

It;s not fear 2NT makes that has me bid 3NT, it is fear that 3NT makes, and 2Hx isn't going to be enough.

 

As an aside, I have 4H and when I make these pass/bid decisions, I use the estimate that partner is 4-1-4-4. Not perfect but works for me. So I estimate they have an eight card fit. I don't want to be be defending at the two level in this situation as a general rule. 2HX maybe right, but I will not be there on this hand... of course, we can't comment on the lack of an opening bid, but 25 ZAR points and spade suit, I would not be in this position anyway.

 

ben

[Fluffy]

I dunno how you usually double at this level, ,but for me I am more afraid that I can make slam than 3NT doesn´t make.

 

Can´t go and look forslam since I pasedprecious round, have to be consistent with precious bids :blink:.

[whereagles]

Ben: yeah, I know most "rules" indicate one should bid, still somehow I feel I should pass. It's probably wrong to do it, but I like to follow my feelings :D

[ArcLight]

LHO has around 8-11 HCP (vulnerable), call it 9.5 HCP. We have 12, that leaves 18.5 HCP. Of which pard probably has at least 10 (lets call it 11) and could be more. My guess is they have around 17 HCP.

 

RHO is unlikely to have 3 hearts because he would probably have raised pards 2 H bid to 3H. Thus of the 3 missing hearts, assume pard and LHO each have 1.5

 

 

The Law of total Tricks would say:

 

Opps longest fit (hearts) = 6 + 1.5 = 7.5

 

Our longest fit. We dont know. Lets try spades we have 4, assume pard has 3.5, thats 7.5 spades. We may not be able to find a better fit in the minors.

 

7.5 + 7.5 = 15 total tricks. The hearts suit is not pure (side honors, and we dont know about spades either). So lets reduce 15 to 14.5 or 14.

 

If they are making 8, we are making 6. At 2 spades thats -200. If we are making 8 (+110) they are going for 500 in 2 hearts.

 

 

I dont see us making 3NT, unless we have some long suit. And if we go higher, and guess the wrong suit (misfit) we may be doubled and go for 500).

 

I would pass.

[inquiry]

Ben: yeah, I know most "rules" indicate one should bid, still somehow I feel I should pass. It's probably wrong to do it, but I like to follow my feelings :D

Well, since it was posed as a "problem" you are probably correct, after all if 4S or 3NT was right, it would never occur to anyone to post this. That being said, I think pass is still wrong. :-)

 

The "why is this here" question and try to guess the solution is an intersting phenomena.. there was a hand a week ago (still no solution, but that is ok, what is right depends upon luck of the draw)... where you had to decide to balance vulnerable at imps with a six card spade to the KT9, the ace of clubs-JACK third of clubs and a doubleton diamond Q (6-2-2-3). http://bridgebase.lunarpages.com/~bridge2/...ic=4824&hl=pass I would have thought more people would have jumped on pass, because if 3♠ was "right" (this particular day) that problem would never have been posed. I choose pass, because, I think under the condition of contest, that was the right bid, not because it was (in all likelihood) the winning bid when this hand occurred in the real (virtual) world.

 

Ben

[whereagles]

Actually, I never think in terms of "This is a problem, so the normal solution must be wrong" :D No fun that way, eheh.

[mikestar]

If we have it in our toolkit, the ideal is 2N lebensohl followed by 3H = got both four spades and the heart stopper--in absence of this, I bid 3N.

 

I will editorialize on the initial pass. If in your system IN can't be opened on 11 point hands and AQxxx Kxxx xx xx is not a 1S opener, then there is no rational alternative to pass. You have 12 HCP including an empty spade suit and a doubleton Queen--this is scarcly worth 11, much less its nominal 12.

[inquiry]

Well, it certainly would be a crappy opening bid... 10 zar distributional points, 12 hcp, 4 control points, minus one point for Qx of diamonds. That comes to 26 - 1 or 25 ZAR points. Zar followers will open 25 ZAR points when holding the spade suit (four cards or more), so the only question is whether or not to treat this particular four card suit as a four card suit.... so it is, indeed, very close to pass/bid even with the very aggressive ZAR evalution. I could go either way on it (I would open, but I would gladly accept any decision to pass too).

[pclayton]

I passed, but I don't feel as strongly about it as many of the posters, since I think its close to 3N as well.

 

I'm a little concerned about a source of tricks for 3N. OTOH, 3rd hand opened a weak 2, and RHO didn't raise. Therefore, they may really have stepped in it and be playing a 6-1, 5-2 or possibly 5-1. While they are vulnerable, many don't get that tight at equal vulnerability. 500 seemed like a sure profit with the potential of a lot more.

 

Partner held: ♠AQJT ♥ Qx ♦ Axx ♣Txxx and LHO held: ♠Kx ♥K98xxx, ♦ JTx ♣ xx. We are booked for +800, but pard compressed our diamond trick by rising. Lost 3, since the other table played 4♠.

[helium]

3 NT here to:)